The international situation has changed rapidly recently, and the Taiwan Strait issue has been pushed to the forefront again. Many people think that in the second half of 2025, especially after Trump came to power, the United States was busy with internal struggles, and it seemed appropriate to move Taiwan at this time. There are discussions everywhere on the Internet, saying that now is a good opportunity for China to unify Taiwan Province, and list various reasons. But some people also say, don’t worry, the time is good, but it is not necessarily a good deal. Let’s talk about this, first, why it’s a good time. There are three real reasons, all of which come from the current actual situation, and then think about whether to start really.
Let’s talk about the first point first, the United States is now not concerned about the Taiwan Strait. Since Trump took office on January 20, 2025, he has thrown all his energy into the country. Border immigration, economic recovery, and trade wars have made him suffer. According to the US media reports, he was busy adjusting tariffs on China in the first few months of his tenure and also introduced new bills in Congress, with the focus on the United States first. The war in Ukraine in Europe is not over, the Middle East is in chaos again, and the US military is dispersed severely. There are 11 aircraft carrier formations of the US military, several of which are wandering around the Middle East and Europe, and the rest have to take care of their local areas. Defense Minister Hegses said in the memorandum that resources should be concentrated on the Indo-Pacific, but in actual implementation, resources are limited. Online analysis said that the United States will respond slowly at this time and the intervention cost is high. Just like when Russia attacked Ukraine, the United States also hesitated at first. If something happens in the Taiwan Strait now, the United States may only condemn it and actually send troops to help Taiwan? Not likely. After all, Trump said that he did not want to be involved in overseas conflicts. This reason is quite tenable. The United States is not as focused on China as it was during Biden.
Article 2: The policies in Taiwan Province are becoming more and more biased, and internal public opinion is also divided. After Lai Ching-te came to power, he has been promoting various de-Sinicization things since May 2024. The New Year conversation calls the mainland "hostile forces abroad" and also limits cross-strait exchanges. The Hanguang exercise in 2025 was large in scale and mobilized a lot, but the blue and green on the island was fierce and there were constant protests on the streets. The DPP has been re-elected for nine years and is supported by electoral votes, but the Taiwanese people have different opinions. Some people think that the economy is good for the mainland, while others are afraid of unification. Online polls show that mainland China has raised calls for unification because it feels that Taiwan independence challenges the bottom line. As Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University said, if it is delayed, the cost will be high, and the people's emotions will rise, internal unity is the confidence.
Article 3: China has grown its strength and has obvious military advantages. The People's Liberation Army has been modernizing rapidly in recent years, deploying new landing ships in 2025, and practicing frequently in the South China Sea. The Eastern Theater Command military exercise around Taiwan has a missile range of 2,000 kilometers, and US ships cannot enter. The Rocket Force and the Air Force have made great progress. Compared with the US military, China is concentrated in the Taiwan Strait. International reports say that China may be superior to the United States by 2030, but the gap is small now and the window period is in. During the Trump era, the United States was busy with internal affairs, Europe carried Ukraine, and China happened to take the initiative. Online discussions: Trump does not want to play Taiwan card, and Beijing promotes a unified strategy. Combining national strength, economy and technology, China is steadily catching up. At this time, the risk is lower than before.
These three reasons add up, and now it is indeed a good time. It is not easy to get together with the weak, the chaotic state, and the strong middle. If you miss it, you may regret it. As some analysts say, the epidemic in 2020 is an opportunity, but I didn’t catch it. Now that Trump is in power, a similar situation has come again. But then again, a good time does not mean you need to do it. Chinese officials have always said that peaceful reunification is the first choice and force is the last resort. Why not hurry? Because the trend is beneficial to China. Time is on China's side, the economic growth rate is stable, and there are many differences within the United States. Like the pulse combat theory, the US military thinks the window is narrow, and China thinks the better the wait. Taking action rashly will result in high economic sanctions and international isolation. Just wait for the strength to crush you, just make excuses.
Think about the risks again. Martial reunification is not a trivial matter. Taiwan Province has a semiconductor industry, which will damage the global economy. China now has a great dependence on exports and a trade war has begun. If we take action and add sanctions, we will be under great pressure from the domestic market. The people support unification, but when they really fight, no one wants to suffer casualties and prices rise. International public opinion is not good for China, and most countries do not support force. Russia and Ukraine are examples, and after three years of struggle, the economy has been dragged down.
Of course, some people say don't wait, the opportunity slips away. Trump has been in the fourth year, and the Taiwan Strait is quiet, he may not care. But China's diplomacy is stable and plans will take action. Like a swordsman, if you hit a sword, you will hit it with one blow, and you will not give you a chance to counterattack. What's in a hurry? The strength comparison is getting better, so be patient and accumulate strength.
In general, three reasons show that the time is good, but there is no hurry to do it. Unification is the goal, and peace is preferred. We are ready for force, whether we need to depend on the situation. China is developing rapidly, waiting for internal changes in Taiwan Province, deep economic integration, and unification will come naturally. Aspiring to quick success and instant benefits will lead to bad things. We ordinary people hope for unity, but we also hope for peace. The timing is good, the strategy is better.
