Foreword

The wind and waves in the South China Sea are getting worse and worse. This world's busiest "sea crossroads" is heating up at a speed visible to the naked eye, like a powder barrel about to be detonated. The Philippines frequently "provokes trouble", the US military presses step by step, China counters strongly, and even Ukraine, which is far away in Europe and Asia, comes to "join the fun".

Many international observers began to warn: if it continues to develop at this pace, the Philippines may become an "Asian version of Ukraine" - and this time, the war may no longer be distant news, but a reality that is close to you.

Storm source: It is not only the sea, but also the "card table position" of a great country

The South China Sea has long been more than just a piece of blue on the map. There is more than 5 trillion US dollars in global trade circulation every year here. Whoever controls this place will have the right to speak in the global supply chain. Just halfway through 2025, the South China Sea conflict risk index soared by 38% year-on-year, and many international think tanks directly showed a "red warning". This is not alarmist, but real systemic risks are taking shape.

The issue of sovereignty disputes was being pushed to a larger game pattern. The confrontation between the two major camps of China and the United States gradually pushed the Philippines into a "frontier sentinel." Every move of the Manila government is like stepping on a mine formation.

The United States takes the lead in conducting exercises, making it as if it really wants to fight a war. The "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise in 2025 is no longer a "showing muscles" through the process, but a solid combat readiness exercise - 17,000 people participated, and everything from anti-submarine to electronic warfare was complete, and even Canada came to "check in".

Behind it, the US military is secretly building a large war preparation warehouse in Subic Bay, Philippines, which is expected to be completed in 2026 and may become the "big rear" of the US military's frontier operations against China in the future.

The United States is moving frequently on this side, and China is not ruthless on the other side. The Shandong aircraft carrier formations regularly cruise the northern waters of the Philippines, and the South China Sea islands and reefs deploy radar and missile systems, gradually weaving a "large air defense network". More importantly, the Southern Theater Command recently released a trajectory map of Philippine ships trespassing Huangyan Island, telling the outside world with facts: if there are any actions, we can see them all and stop them.

The most surprising thing is the emergence of Ukraine. This country, which is still fighting at home, actually provides the "Bonta 3" drone to the Philippines. These seemingly inconspicuous "small aircraft" actually have the ability to fight against electronic interference and have a good battery life.

Once it is invested in the South China Sea, it is very likely to become a "spark" of low-intensity conflict. Ukraine's motives are not complicated - please the United States and exchange for continuous assistance. The outline of this "agent conflict" is becoming clearer and clearer, and the Philippines, a "chess piece", is sliding step by step toward the edge of danger.

The cost of misjudging the situation: Is the Philippines "betting" or "suicide gamble"?

Philippine President Marcos seems a little too keen on "choosing sides". Although the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea is still there, he unilaterally filed a case for demarcation of the external continental shelf to the United Nations and introduced the "Tifeng" medium-range missile system with a range covering the entire Southeast Asia, which is clearly adding fuel to the fire.

The question is, can the Philippines' family really support this "arms race"? It's very difficult. China is the Philippines' largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volume reaching 3.8 trillion yuan in 2024.

But the Marcos administration put its already limited defense budget on confrontational equipment, and the result was that economic and security policies began to "fight" - relying on China for food, but learning from the United States for war. This "left and left" posture looks lively, but it is actually very dangerous.

Domestic voices do not support this path very much. 62% of the Filipinos are worried that the escalation of the situation will threaten national security. Many scholars have already talked about the word "Asian Ukraine". Just look at the current situation in Ukraine, this is no joke.

But reality is right in front of you: the tonnage of the main ship of the Philippine Navy is not as high as that of a Chinese coast guard ship, the radar detection range is only 20 kilometers, and advanced weapons lack system support. A few drones and missiles cannot support a regional war.

This strategic misjudgment is not only a matter of judgment, but also a misunderstanding of reality. The Philippines is not Ukraine, it does not have a strategic buffer zone for long-term wars, nor does it have the strong backing of NATO. Once you step on the wrong pace, it will not be a local accident, but may cause regional earthquakes.

"Asia Ukraine" is not a script, but a wake-up call for reality

The current situation in the Philippines looks like a preview of a script of "Agent War". The United States provides the "Haimas" rocket launcher, Ukraine sends drones, and the Philippines becomes the actual tactical execution point. It seems to be "alliance support", but essentially pushes the Philippines to the forefront.

Simulated conflict data shows that once a conflict breaks out in the South China Sea, the Philippines' GDP may fall by 7.8% within one year, and the financial market losses will reach US$180 billion. This is not a small number, and it is enough to put an already developing country into an "economic collapse."

More importantly, this possible conflict is not one-to-one. The South China Sea involves sovereignty claims from multiple countries, and Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei are all "queuing up to watch the show". Once the Philippines crosses the line too hard, triggering a chain reaction, stability in Southeast Asia will be dragged down as a whole.

Compared with Ukraine, the particularity of the Philippines is more complicated. China has a very deep economic ties with its own economy and the cost of decoupling is extremely high. Unlike Ukraine that can rely on the EU to "transfusion", if the Philippines loses the Chinese market, it may not even be found.

At this tense moment, China and the United States have reached a rare "suspended" - the tariff war between China and the United States has temporarily stopped in 2025, and the two sides are seeking limited cooperation. If the Philippines continues to "bump the line", it may not only completely fall out with China, but also lose the trust of the United States in its "stable role".

The United Nations Division for Asia-Pacific Affairs has also spoken out, clearly opposing any form of military adventure and stressing that regional peace is in the interests of all parties. This is not a persuasion, but a warning - don't play with fire, otherwise no one can save you.

How should the Philippines finish the multiple-choice questions?

The current situation is actually not yet at the point of "no turning back". It’s not that the Philippines has no options, it just needs to calm down. ASEAN is advancing consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Although its execution is limited, it is the most promising multilateral coordination mechanism at present. 78% of the Asia-Pacific people also tend to negotiate peacefully rather than military confrontation, which shows that public opinion does not support the use of force.

The Philippines can walk back to the table. China and the Philippines have reached many consensuses in the fields of fishery resources and joint maritime development in the past. As long as they are willing to discuss, there is still room for improvement. Instead of being treated as a pawn, it is better to take the initiative to be a gamer. Indonesia's "neutral diplomacy" is a template worth referring to. Keeping a distance between China and the United States and using ASEAN collective bargaining chips to fight for its own interests is a more realistic survival strategy.

If the Philippines recognizes the reality and no longer blindly chooses sides, but returns to rationality and pragmatism, the "gunpowder" in the South China Sea may be able to continue to suppress it. The Philippines should be awake. Continuing to "bump the line" will only accelerate one's own consumption, and being regarded as a pawn by a big country, and the future of the country will be lost in the end.

The confrontation between China and the Philippines is not destined to be confrontation, and the space for cooperation is far greater than that of confrontation. If the Philippines can stabilize the situation in new energy, trade, and chip supply chains, they are qualified to share the cake instead of being used as a tool to merge it at will. "Asia-Ukraine" is not fate, but a mirror. Only after you have a clear picture will you know where to go. History is not a script, it punishes gamblers who bet blindly.

Reference: Wu Wei: To solve the "small problem" of the Philippines requires Vajra methods and the heart of the Bodhisattva

2025-09-07 21:19·Direct News