As the US military mobilized ships and aircraft to the Caribbean on a large scale and formed a semi-encirclement of Venezuela, a piece of news caught Washington off guard.
U.S. media revealed that the first water oil rig from China has arrived at Lake Malacaipo in northwestern Venezuela and started operations.
According to US defense intelligence channels, the Pentagon executives had strong differences at one time after learning the news. An officer in charge of military operations in the Caribbean even said bluntly: "We may be in big trouble."
In the analysis of the US intelligence department, the existence of this platform is equivalent to a "risk trigger point". It is located in the most critical energy heartland of Venezuela. Once military operations are affected, it is very likely to be interpreted as a direct impact on Dongda University's overseas assets, which will force Dongda University to respond at the diplomatic, economic and even security levels.
It is this possibility that has caused significant differences in the US strategic circle. Some hawkish people believe that they cannot give up pressure because of external intervention, otherwise it is equivalent to sitting on the verge of the opponent in the US "backyard".
Another part of officials warned that any rash action could escalate the original regional crisis into an international confrontation, which for Washington, means that any future military action must consider the existence of another force.
According to public information, Lake Malacaibo is known as the "oil lake", with reserves of about 50 billion barrels, accounting for more than 70% of Venezuela's total reserves. In the past century, this has been the main battlefield of American energy giants. Companies such as Mobil and Chevron have been exploiting here for a long time, and have almost grasped the lifeline of Venezuela's oil industry.
But with the Maduro government coming to power and oil assets being nationalized, American companies gradually withdrawing, Western sanctions have intensified this trend, forcing Venezuela to find new partners, and China's drilling platform entered the lake area, becoming the first "external eastward cooperation" in local energy history.
For Venezuela, this is not only a lifesaver at the economic level, but also a political security insurance. Once energy is bound to a major country, it means that the threshold for risk is raised.
China has long become the largest buyer of Venezuela's oil. Since the beginning of this year, its average daily import volume has remained at 400,000 to 500,000 barrels, accounting for 85% of Venezuela's total export volume. This is no longer just a trade relationship, but a deep dependence. Against this background, Dongda University deployed the drilling platform to Lake Malakaibo, which is equivalent to transforming from a "customer" to a "shareholder".
So within the US military, the real concerns are concentrated on two levels.
First, it is the expansion of strategic risks. The Pentagon's established combat vision originally assumed that Venezuela was an "isolated force", but this assumption was broken with the emergence of the Dongda Oil Platform.
If military operations may touch the core interests of major powers, then the entire logic of operations must be rewritten, from a regional "punitive strike" to a strategic contest that may involve multiple parties. This transformation will put huge political and military costs on the US military.
On the other hand, the spillover effect is uncontrollable. Internal analysis of the US military pointed out that Dongda University has continued to expand its ocean-going capabilities in recent years and proposed a strategic direction of "protecting overseas energy channels and interests."
The Caribbean Sea was originally not directly related to this strategy, but the implementation of the platform provided a realistic fulcrum for this strategy. If the US military acted rashly, it would be likely to be used by its opponents as a reason to strengthen its overseas existence and even formed a long-term station in the Caribbean Sea, which would directly impact the United States' traditional advantages in the Western Hemisphere.
And recently, the United States has tense relations with many Latin American countries. If the action is interpreted as "destroying energy cooperation" or "provoking the interests of major powers", it may accelerate the spread of anti-US sentiment in the region. In other words, a military action against Venezuela may trigger political turmoil in the entire Latin America.
For this reason, senior military officials repeatedly emphasized in their internal reports that "actions should be cautious" and proposed that risk predictions must be made at the political level. In other words, although the US military has overwhelming military means, it faces more complex strategic considerations than before in terms of whether to truly use them.
