The Russian-Ukraine War has not stopped since February 24, 2022. Until now, there is still a tug-of-war on the battlefield, and Russia has suffered a lot of losses. While watching the fun, China must learn from the lessons, especially if something really happens to the Taiwan Strait and China and the United States are in a match, China must not be able to rush into the pit like Russia.
To put it bluntly, Russia's mistakes are inadequate preparation, inaccessible intelligence, and finally a war of attrition. If we make these three points, it will be a big problem. On the other hand, the United States also has weaknesses. The four major fatal points are there, and going straight to these places is the smart way to play.
First, Russia is not prepared enough. Russia wanted to engage in a blitzkrieg at the beginning, and the troops advanced from multiple directions and headed straight to Kiev, with the goal of a quick battle. As a result, the troops were less than 200,000, and the front line was long, with thousands of kilometers, and the logistics could not keep up. As the tanks advance quickly, the supply convoy became disconnected, and the fuel and ammunition were short, and the front-line troops stared at them.
After retreating from Kiev in March, Ukraine breathed and Western aid weapons were sent in continuously. Russian intelligence agencies misjudged Ukraine's will to resist before the war, thinking that it was unstable internally and dispersed as soon as it was fought. Unexpectedly, the Ukrainians took the initiative. When the United States and the West saw that the opportunity had come, they quickly intervened. Isn’t this a typical example of inadequate preparation? If the war starts in the Taiwan Strait, China cannot do this. It must count the logistics and troop deployment to ensure that it hits one blow and not give the opponent a chance to breathe.
Russia suffers even more in terms of intelligence. Ukraine received real-time intelligence from the United States, and all the Russian military movements were targeted. In April 2022, US Secretary of Defense Austin publicly stated that the intelligence shared by the United States was almost real-time, including the Russian military location and equipment mobilization. As a result, Ukraine used this intelligence to sink Russian naval ships and assassinate Russian scientific researchers, causing a lot of losses.
Biden also warned his men not to disclose it, for fear of escalation into direct confrontation between the United States and Russia, but the assistance will be given without delay. Russia's intelligence system is rigid and satellite reconnaissance is not so advanced. Once the West intervenes, the Russian army suffers. If the situation in the Taiwan Strait is in the case of the Taiwan Strait, the US intelligence network will definitely be stronger. China must strengthen its intelligence flexibility and block these loopholes in advance, otherwise small actions will become big trouble.
The most deadly thing is to fight a protracted battle. After the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg, the battlefield was dragged to Donbas in the east, digging trenches and shelling tug-of-war. In September 2022, Ukraine Kharkiv counterattacked and recovered a large area of land, while Western tanks and missiles continued to operate. The Ukrainian summer offensive in June 2023, although progress was slow, Russia was short of ammunition and soldiers were exhausted.
In August 2024, Ukraine also entered Kursk Oblast, Russia, and the border was in chaos. By 2025, Russia has controlled the eastern part, but the casualties exceed 600,000, and the economy is sanctioned and stumbling. Western aid exceeds 100 billion US dollars, and the United States and Europe continue to increase their investments, just to waste Russia to death.
Zhang Hong, an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the United States and the West are implementing a strategy of containing and consuming Russia. The protracted war is beneficial to the side with external support. If China delays its support in the Taiwan Strait and the assistance of the US allies continues, our resources cannot be consumed, so we have to pursue quick decisions and cut off our opponents' supply line.
These pits in Russia must be avoided in the Taiwan Strait. If the conflict in the Taiwan Strait breaks out, China will have to go straight to the four major American points. Japan is the first one. The US's Asia-Pacific military power is in Japan. The Okinawa Kadena base is full of F-35s and the runway is busy every day. Japanese politicians always yell, "If there is something wrong in Taiwan, Japan will have something wrong."
On January 8, 2024, Liberal Democratic Party Deputy Secretary-General Taro Aso publicly stated that the Taiwan crisis is a Japanese crisis, and also said that something must happen in Taiwan and it is related to Japan's survival. The Chinese Foreign Ministry directly retorted, saying that Taiwan is China's internal affairs and that Japan overestimated itself.
To be honest, Japan's attitude is to interfere, but China just needs to focus on it. Once Japan has signs of intervention, blocking the strait and cracking down on US military bases, it can paralyze the US Asia-Pacific forces. The US military is far away and relies on Japan's supply, so it will not stand firm if it breaks its legs. The Chinese Navy and Air Force must practice in advance, and missiles lock these points to ensure that Japan does not dare to move.
Europe is the second fatal point. The United States and Europe are clustering together on the surface. On December 3, 2021, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman and EU Foreign Action Secretary-General Sanino talked about China's issues in Washington, emphasizing the joint pressure on the Taiwan issue, saying that China is difficult to ignore the combined power of the United States and Europe. But there is no fundamental conflict between China and Europe. The China-Europe freight train is running happily and trade is win-win.
France takes the lead in trying to get rid of American control, and Macron said that Europe needs strategic autonomy. The United States always sucks blood from Europe, and NATO's military spending in Europe is the most important thing, so it has to obey the command of the United States. China can launch Europe, provide economical and affordable, and differentiate between the United States and Europe. The Taiwan Strait is fighting, and there are different opinions within Europe, and Germany and France do not want to be involved in the Far East incident. China's diplomacy is active and playing the economic card well has put the United States in a dilemma. If its allies are uncoordinated, the investment in the Taiwan Strait will be discounted.
Israel's fatal hole is special. The United States has been firmly supported by Israel, and has been in constant military aid since its founding in 1948. The reasons are religious, institutional and psychological factors, and the American Jewish community has a great influence. Jewish lobbying groups such as AIPAC, donating money to influence Congress’ decisions and promote military aid bills. Evangelical Christians also support Israel, believing that control of the Holy Land is a prophecy.
U.S. Congressman applauded and approved Israeli aid, and the media emphasized the US-Israeli alliance every day. The Jewish consortium holds the lifeline of the economy and affects the presidential election. In the 2023 Pakistan-Israel conflict, the United States quickly took sides with Israel, transported its weapons and distracted from the Middle East. China can unite with Iran, Lebanon, etc. to put pressure on Israel. The United States is distracted, so the Taiwan Strait will not meddle in other people's business. No matter how strong Jewish lobbying is, it cannot help but burn the United States.
The last fatal point, the United States. For many years, the United States has ignited fires everywhere, and no one has threatened them because of their local security. But China is different. On September 25, 2024, the Chinese Rocket Force tested the Dongfeng-31AG intercontinental missile, which was launched from inland to the high seas of the Pacific, with a range of over 10,000 kilometers, covering the entire United States.
The US Department of Defense said that China's notice in advance was "the right step", but it was definitely panicked. Dongfeng-31AG is highly mobile and difficult to intercept when launched on the road. The missiles were launched, flames were ejected, and the landing point was accurate, which showed that China's nuclear deterrence was escalated. The United States has become a weak point. He dare not act rashly on the Taiwan Strait issue, so he must make careful choices. China's hand is equivalent to telling the United States not to suffer from local disasters, just be honest.
Russia's lessons tell us that the game between great powers cannot be taken lightly. If you are not prepared enough, you will get a chance to deal with your phone. If you fall behind in intelligence, you will suffer a loss. If you fall into the trap of the West after a protracted war, you will fall into the trap of the West. China has to absorb these and strengthen its own strength in the Taiwan Strait.
Russia is now economically adapting to sanctions, but international isolation is deep. Putin won the March 2024 election, continues to lead and reorganize the army, but at a high cost. China is different. It has a large economy and a leading technology. When the Dongfeng missile shines, the United States has to weigh it. Once the four fatal holes are poked, the United States will show its timidity. If a Japanese base is sealed, Europe will pull, Israel will stir up, and the local power will be powerful. How can the United States play?
In fact, the American alliance system has problems, including Cold War thinking, zero-sum game, and many troubles. The SIPRI yearbook says that it is difficult to manage armed conflicts. The United States and Europe are busy for a long time and are still entangled in the Indo-Pacific. China is taking steady steps, China-EU cooperation is real, and Japan is clamoring, it is difficult to protect itself if it really fights.
In Israel, no matter how fierce the United States and Jews lobby, the Middle East is in a blazing state, and the Taiwan Strait is far away. The threat of local missiles in the United States is slapped, who dares to gamble? Russia and Ukraine have fought to the present, and the West has provided more than US$59.5 billion in aid to Ukraine. US President Biden also approved 400 million military aid in October 2024, but Ukraine's counterattack was slow and Russia stabilized the east. Putin has not fallen, but Russia's status is weak, so China cannot learn this.
In the Taiwan Strait situation, China must calculate the timeline accurately. Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses in more than three years from lightning to tug-of-war. In May 2022, the US intelligence slammed Ukraine's Russian ships, and in 2023, Ukraine counterattacked Zaporoze, and landmines exploded continuously.
In 2025, the United States once suspended intelligence assistance, and Ukraine transferred to local reconnaissance. China's intelligence network must be fully covered, and satellite drones must be used together to avoid similar situations. The protracted war is beneficial to the United States, with many allies and fast aid. China quickly decided to block Japan, missiles greeted US bases, European economy wooed, the Middle East disrupted Israel, the local east wind stared at it, and the United States was afraid of being attacked.
Jewish lobbying is bullish in the United States, and AIPAC has donated a lot, which has affected both parties. However, the interests of the United States in the Middle East are complex, and the Iranian nuclear issue and Lebanon conflict are in chaos, and the United States' forces are diverted.
In October 2023, the United States quickly sent an aircraft carrier group, but the Taiwan Strait was not at ease. China has united with Middle Eastern countries and Iran supports group actions, so the United States has a headache. Europe's differentiation is more realistic. France and Germany do not want to work hard for Taiwan. China-Europe trade volume is high, and the train runs every day. Sherman's words in 2021 are now empty, and the trade between the United States and Europe and China still depends on China.
The United States' homeland is the hardest deterrent. The Dongfeng-31AG test launch was released, and it was the first time that it had reached the Pacific Ocean for the full range for more than 40 years, and American radars were nervous. The range is more than 11,000 kilometers, solid fuel, and mobile concealed. The Biden administration admits that notifications are good, but essentially China is showing its muscles. The United States relies on the ocean, and Americans are used to fighting from a long distance. Now that China's missiles have stretched out, the game has changed. When the Taiwan Strait fights, the United States threatens, Congress hesitates and people protest, and the policy becomes soft.
Russian intelligence misjudged Ukraine. Before the war, the FSB thought it was welcomed by the people, but he did not expect the resistance to be fierce. The Washington Post reported that Russian intelligence agencies misled the Kremlin. China cannot do this, and it must evaluate the public opinion of Taiwan and the strength of the US military. When Putin ordered the action, he thought he would win quickly, but the result was lasting, the economy was sanctioned and energy exports were transferred to Asia, but the cost was high. China's economy is strong in resilience, good internal circulation, rapid war in the Taiwan Strait, and Western sanctions can withstand it.
In general, Russia's trap is a lesson from the past. China is in the Taiwan Strait and goes straight to the United States' fatal point. Japan blockade, Europe's differentiation, Israel's pressure, and local deterrence. The United States has no choice. If you have the strength to speak, don’t be dragged on. Russia is now firm in its position, but the lessons are profound. China learns to be smarter and unify the great cause of stability.
