The relationship between China and the United States has been turbulent over the years, trade frictions have been escalating, and technological blockades have emerged one after another, causing the global economy to sway. In this context, some Americans always feel that China should give in. In March 2023, at the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, Harvard University professor Graham Allison put forward a point of view, saying that China and the United States either fight wars or learn from the Northern Song Dynasty and sign an agreement with the United States like the Chanyuan Alliance.
Alison is a famous person who studies the competition of great powers. His book "Destined War" talks about the Thucydides Trap, saying that emerging powers challenge the consolidation of great powers and are likely to fight. But he also admitted that China and the United States have to find ways to avoid this pit. In Boao, he used the metaphor of the Song-Liao relationship, saying that after the two countries signed the Chanyuan alliance for a hundred years, China and the United States could also be "competitive partners." This idea is based on his interpretation of Chinese history, but in reality, the strength of China and the United States is different. China is now the second largest economy in the world, and its comprehensive national strength is stable and will not bow its head easily.
American experts' weird suggestions
Alison is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and has been studying national security and Sino-US relations for many years. In 2017, he published the book "Destined War", analyzing 16 historical cases, of which 12 major powers competed in war. He invented the term "Thucydides Trap" which originated from ancient Greek history, saying that the rise of Athens scared Sparta and led to war. Allison used this theory to look at China and the United States, saying that China is an upward force and the United States is a major country in the current situation and is prone to accidental fire. In 2023, he specifically mentioned the alliance between the Chanyuan, saying that Song and Liao achieved peaceful coexistence through this agreement, and China and the United States could also learn. The Chanyuan Alliance was signed by the Northern Song Dynasty and the Liao Kingdom in 1005. The Song Dynasty gave Liao 100,000 taels of silver and 200,000 pieces of silk every year in exchange for border stability. Allison felt that this was like a variant of "tributary relations". Song paid money, Liao did not fight, and both sides benefited. He suggested that China and the United States sign similar things, the United States recognizes China's influence, and China concessions to certain areas to form a "competitive partner."
Some articles say that this is a high hat for Americans and actually want China to pay "protection fees". This is not the first time Allison has talked about this. In 2019, his article mentioned the Chanyuan Alliance, saying that the Song-Liao agreement avoids a war for a hundred years. When he was talking to the Chinese in 2021, he talked about how to escape the Thucydides trap. In April 2024, someone posted a message to recall that Allison suggested that China and the United States sign a new "Shenyuan Alliance". Allison's book was translated in China in 2023, titled "Escape from the Thucydides Trap", which talks to Chinese scholars and emphasizes the importance of dialogue. The Boao Forum is a major platform in Asia. The theme of 2023 is global geo-outlook. Allison spoke at that sub-forum and called for Sino-US cooperation. The International Red Cross also participated, emphasizing respect for international law.
Historical lessons of the Chanyuan Alliance
The Chanyuan Alliance was a key agreement between the Northern Song Dynasty and the Liao Kingdom, marking a turning point in the relationship between the two countries. The Northern Song Dynasty was founded in 960. In the early days, it wanted to recover the sixteen prefectures of Yanyun, but the Northern Expedition was repeatedly defeated. In 979, Emperor Taizong of Song Dynasty was defeated in Gao Lianghe, and in 986, the three northern expeditions were lost again. The Liao Kingdom was established in 916, and its strength increased under the regent of Empress Dowager Xiao. In 1004, Emperor Shengzong of Liao invaded the south and arrived in Chanzhou. Song Zhenzong personally fought and his morale was boosted. In January 1005, the Chanyuan Alliance was signed, and the Song Dynasty gave Liao an annual monies of 100,000 taels of silver and 200,000 pieces of silk. The borders of the two countries remained unchanged, and they did not build new castles or dig new ditches; they did not hide fugitives, and they did not open new fields; the emperor called each other brothers, and the Empress Dowager of Liao called Emperor Song the uncle. This alliance allowed the Song and Liao to have peace for a hundred years until the end of Liao in 1125. The treaty is not a tyrant clause, and it is signed only if both sides are of equal strength.
Historically, this convoy promotes trade and opens border markets. The Song Dynasty exported silk tea porcelain, and the Liao Dynasty imported horse fur. The two countries occasionally had minor frictions, but there was no big war. After the Chanyuan Alliance, Song built water conservancy, opened canals, and people's livelihood improved. Liao consolidated northern borders and internal stability. The basis of this agreement is balanced strength. Song has no power to destroy Liao, and Liao cannot swallow Song. After the signing of the treaty, Song Dynasty's internal affairs became stronger and culture flourished. The lesson of history is that competition between great powers requires rationality and agreements can avoid war. But the premise is equality, not one party’s pressure.
Rational choices in Sino-US relations
While Sino-US relations are complex, Allison's suggestion is unrealistic. China's strength is different from the past and will not give in. Allison said that China and the United States signed the "Zhenyuan Alliance", but ignored China's advantages. The Song and Liao dynasties signed after the war, but China did not lose the Sino-US trade war. The United States wants to block technology, China develops its own chips, and 5G leads. China and the United States need mutual benefit, not one side pays "annual monies".
Therefore, China and the United States will have dialogue in the future. In May 2025, the tariff reduction will be temporarily reduced by 90 days, indicating that it is possible. Allison Davos said the relationship will improve surprises. China will not fall into traps and adhere to peaceful development. And American elites like Allison must recognize reality. In the future, talks on multilateral mechanisms between China and the United States and sharing of science and technology economy. Global stability requires the responsibility of major countries and China contributes more.
