On September 11, 2025, Mexico suddenly took a heavy blow to many non-free trade partners, including China, and announced an increase in tariffs on 1,371 commodities, with some tax rates as high as 50%.
Among them, the automobile and its core components are listed, involving an amount of more than US$52 billion. The surface reason is to "protect the country's industry", but judging from the strength and timing of this wave of operation, it is more like a move by the United States and Mexico in jointly suppressing China-made. I'm afraid it's not that simple.
Mexico "selects side": political votes bring economic concerns
Mexico's "killing" of this tax increase cannot be underestimated, and the focus is on China's most deeply deployed automobile industry in the local area.
At present, China is Mexico's second largest trading partner, with the trade volume between the two sides exceeding US$100 billion in 2024. Mexico's knife continued, not only Chinese companies were hit, but also "blood flowed endlessly" in Mexico.
The first thing that suffers is the consumers. Local Mexico equity organizations have expressed concerns that the move will directly push up prices, especially the mid- and low-end automobile markets, which may face the risks of tight supply and demand and rising prices.
The National Association of Mexico Auto Dealers also issued a warning: Chinese brands have set up more than 800 sales outlets in Mexico. Once tariffs are issued, inventory backlogs, costs increase, and sales declines are almost inevitable.
From the list of additional charges, Mexico is not only for the entire vehicle, but also covers a large number of core components, even key areas such as batteries and electronic control systems of new energy vehicles. This "full-chain strike" method is hard to say that it is a pure economic behavior, and it is more like an active "loyalty" in cooperation with the United States' strategy to contain China.
It cannot be ignored that Trump played a key role in it. Since returning to the White House in 2025, he has promoted the so-called "North American Manufacturing Fortress" strategy, intending to build a closed-loop industrial chain that excludes China.
For Mexico, the United States is its largest export market, accounting for nearly 80%. In the past, Trump had wielded the tariff stick to force Mexico to make concessions on immigration, medicine and other issues. This time, it was the geopolitical manufacturing industry.
However, this "political vote" is not small to Mexico itself. Inflation pressure has begun to emerge and the investment environment is turbulent.
Chinese companies such as BYD and Chery have invested more than 100 billion yuan in Mexico in 2024 alone. Now the policy has changed suddenly and corporate confidence has been significantly frustrated. In the future, it may consider turning to other Latin American countries.
Trump's tactical upgrade: unilateral suppression turns to joint blockade
Unlike the trade war in 2018, Trump no longer fought alone this time, but tried to win over allies to encircle China. Mexico's tax hike measures are part of this "multilateral encirclement" strategy.
Data shows that China's "curve exports" to the United States surged by 30% in 2024. Trump obviously noticed this "loophole", so he simply blocked the "detour" passage. At the same time, rumors have also come from Europe that the UK and the EU intend to impose up to 100% punitive tariffs on Sino-Russia petrochemical products, intending to further improve the "trade siege".
But this "encirclement net" is not perfect. First of all, the interests of all countries are not completely consistent. Although Mexico has met the strategic needs of the United States, its local new energy industry is highly dependent on Chinese technology and parts.
European countries are inseparable from China's cooperation in green technology fields such as photovoltaics, batteries, and rare earths. For these countries, the cost of choosing sides between China and the United States for a long time is no less than the benefit.
More realistic is that Mexico's local industry does not yet have the ability to completely replace imports, especially in high-end fields such as electric vehicle power systems and smart cockpits, which still rely heavily on Chinese products. This means that even if the tax increase is temporarily effective, it will not be able to truly cut off the penetration of China's manufacturing industry chain.
China has long had the experience to deal with similar situations. Looking back at the Sino-US trade war in 2018, China has successfully diversified risks by strengthening cooperation with Southeast Asia, Latin America and other places. Now that Mexico's "shortcut" has been blocked, China is fully capable of opening up new channels.
China's multi-line layout: strong countermeasures, no chaotic rhythm
In the face of the sudden policy impact, China did not retaliate against it, but chose to respond flexibly. On September 12, the Ministry of Commerce issued a brief statement, with a restrained tone, but the wording was clear: cooperation should be cautious, and countermeasures must be firm.
From the actual action, China may adjust tariffs on key mineral resources such as copper and lithium exported by Mexico. These resources are an important pillar of Mexico's exports to China. Once restricted, local mining and fiscal revenue will be directly affected.
At the same time, China does not rule out the restrictions on exports of energy storage technology, which is the core support for Mexico's energy transformation. If technical support is cut off, its carbon neutrality process may be severely hindered.
More importantly, China no longer relies on a single market. Starting from 2023, China will accelerate its diversified market layout. In the first half of this year, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 12% year-on-year, and cooperation with Latin American countries such as Brazil and Chile continued to deepen.
Even if Mexico is temporarily "closed", other markets are still expanding.
Industrial upgrading is also a key factor in China's risk resistance. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, BYD's market in Europe grew against the trend, with its market share increasing by 5 percentage points compared with last year.
In the field of photovoltaics, China remains firmly ranked first in the world, especially in new technologies such as perovskite batteries. This ability of "independent blood production" allows China to remain at ease in the face of external pressure.
In contrast, Mexico's short-term political score may win applause from Washington, but if China loses its technical and financial support, it may miss the window period for industrial upgrading. Especially with the current increasingly complex international supply chains, if Mexico cannot maintain multilateral balance, it may eventually become a "tool of the US strategy."
Conclusion: Blockade can suppress the times, but cannot stop the torrent of the times
Mexico's "bet on Trump" this time has won strategic initiative on the surface, but in fact it has planted long-term hidden dangers. In today's highly interconnected world, unilateral positions mean giving up the space for balance, and this strategy is often difficult to last.
China has stabilized its pace with its flexible strategic layout and industrial resilience. Instead of head-on confrontation, it is better to resolve external challenges through market diversification, technological upgrading and high-quality development. The real game is not faster than making moves, but rather who can keep calm and go further.
As Xinhua News Agency said: "Complaints for profits are not a long-term solution, and independent balance is the way for small countries to survive." Mexico needs to seriously consider whether this "political performance" is worthy of full investment and whether it can bear the final price.
References
The Ministry of Commerce answers reporters' questions about Mexico's plans to increase import tariff rates for relevant trading partners
2025-09-11 23:55·Beijing News
