It's a big deal! Behind Mixue's 2.7 billion profit, why did Naixue's "co-branded magic" fail?

A cup of milk tea, several companies are happy and some are sad.

The tea beverage market in 2025 is staged with a cruel song of ice and fire.

In late August this year, the half-year financial reports of various tea beverage companies were released one after another, and the data was dazzling.

Naixue's tea revenue was 2.18 billion yuan, but it lost 120 million yuan.

Mixue Bingcheng's revenue was close to 15 billion yuan, making 2.7 billion yuan, and its profit was as high as 1.63 billion yuan.

This gap is not a small matter.

How can some people make a lot of money by selling milk tea, but some people lose money?

Naxue's life is not easy.

In March last year, their share price plummeted 25% in one day, and their market value evaporated by more than 90% from its high point at the time of listing, leaving only HK$2.2 billion.

In the first half of last year, Naixue's customer unit price fell by 15%, and the average daily sales of a single store fell by 40%.

But the other companies are a different story.

The total number of stores in Mixue Ice City globally has exceeded 53,000, with nearly 10,000 new stores in the first half of the year.

Gu Ming is no less than that, becoming the second tea brand to reach the scale of 10,000 stores.

The internal gap in the industry has actually indicated that the tea beverage industry has entered the stage of intensive cultivation from the initial land grab.

Why did Naixue fall behind? Its high-end positioning is a bit unsatisfactory at the moment.

Naixue first learned the Starbucks set, creating the "third space", opening a big shop, selling high-priced tea drinks, and a cup costs more than 30 yuan at any time.

This model was OK in the past few years, but now the economic environment has changed, and more people have become cautious in spending money, so the high-end route is a bit out of play.

Even Heytea has taken the initiative to reduce the price to the range of 15-20 yuan, and Mixue Bingcheng has attracted a large number of users in the sinking market by relying on its ultimate cost-effectiveness.

A cup of Naixue is nearly 10 yuan more expensive than others, and it is difficult to promote it in the sinking market.

Naixue also tried to make adjustments himself. For example, opening up franchise reduces the investment cost of a single store from 1 million to 580,000, and the store area is also allowed to be smaller.

But the effect seems to be not ideal.

By the end of 2024, it had only 345 franchise stores, accounting for only 19.2% of the total number of stores. Comparing with the 99% franchise share of Mixue Ice City, the gap is revealed.

Looking at those profitable brands, there are only two secrets:Large enough in scale and strong enough in supply chain.

Mixue Bingcheng can make nearly 15 billion yuan, the core lies in the huge scale of its more than 50,000 stores and the strong supply chain support behind it.

It relies almost entirely on the franchise model, and its main income comes from selling raw materials and equipment to franchise stores.

After the scale is increased, the procurement cost can be reduced and the efficiency will naturally be high.

Gu Ming's profits can soar by 121.5%, which is a similar way. They are deeply involved in the supply chain. For example, Gu Ming invested a lot of money in cold chain logistics to ensure the freshness of raw materials and the efficiency of distribution.

The tea beverage industry is now competing with cost control.

Naixue's cost structure is relatively disadvantaged: raw material costs account for 32.9% of revenue, labor costs account for 20.3%, and the large store model has led to high rents.

The cost cannot be reduced, so it will naturally be difficult to make money.

When competition in first-tier cities becomes fierce, third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities and overseas markets become new growth points.

Naixue also mentioned in its 2023 annual report that "other cities" mainly in third- and fourth-tier cities showed strong consumption vitality, with store operating profit margin reaching 19.6%, even higher than some first-tier cities.

Naixue franchise stores like Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, Longyan, Fujian, and Shangqiu, Henan can achieve monthly revenue of more than 700,000.

Overseas markets are also the fat meat that tea brands are targeting.

Naixue opened its first store in Bangkok, Thailand at the end of 2023. It is said that the monthly turnover exceeded 1 million yuan, and the maximum daily increase exceeded 60,000 yuan. Mixue Bingcheng is also actively expanding overseas markets.

Since April this year, Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com have fought fierce battles on takeaway, with a total subsidy investment of up to 25 billion yuan.

Milk tea, a high-frequency and low-a-terminal price product, has naturally become the focus of platform traffic.

In the short term, the brand has indeed increased the order volume through subsidies on takeaway platform. But in the long run, this may not be a good thing.

Subsidies stimulate sales, but also make consumers accustomed to low prices.

One ​​day the subsidy has stopped and if you want to restore the original price, consumers may not buy it.

What is particularly uncomfortable is the franchisee. There seem to be too many orders, but many of them are losing money and making publicity. "The more you sell, the more you lose, the more you lose."

Last year, the tea industry opened 116,000 new stores, but closed 150,000, a net decrease of 34,000.

Behind this number, there are the sadness of many franchisees.

Tea brands are not idle either. are all looking for the "second growth curve", so coffee has become a natural choice.

Naixue added a coffee product line in PRO stores as early as 2021, and Heytea and Mixue Bingcheng also laid out their coffee business early.

The tea drinks brand has a natural advantage:The group of drinking tea and drinking coffee has a high degree of overlap.

Naixue once revealed that 80% of their customers drink both tea and coffee.

But it is not easy to transform into coffee.

After all, coffee has professional players such as Starbucks and Luckin.The tea beverage brand will find it difficult to form a competitive advantage in the short term in terms of the supply chain and brand mind of the coffee core.

After all, the tea drink financial report in the past six months in 2025 is like drawing a clear roadmap for the entire industry.

One ​​side is a high-end brand represented by Naixue, which is struggling to survive under the pressure of cost and consumption downgrades.

On the other side are brands like Mixue and Gu Ming, which have made a fortune by relying on tens of thousands of stores and strong cost control capabilities.

Behind a simple cup of milk tea is actually a microcosm of the entire Chinese consumer market.

Consumers' wallets are becoming more and more picky, and only companies that truly provide value can laugh to the end in this protracted war. #Toutiao deep#

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References

1.Sohu: "Naixue's Tea's Market Value plummeted: High-end "myth" can't hide the strategic dilemma"

2.DoNews: "When the hit products are no longer, how can Naixue's Tea get out of the "desert" of innovation? 》

3.South+: "Naxue's new financial report: The performance of fifth-tier cities is bright | Look at the financial report coldly"

4.36Kr: "The report card in the takeaway war is released, the long-term worries after the "explosion order" of new tea drinks"

5. Sina Finance: "New tea beverage companies enter coffee business, and the two tracks may move towards integration"

6. NetEase: "From the first new tea drink to the store closure of huge losses, where does Naixue's tea go"

7. Observer.com: "When the hot products are no longer, how can Naixue's Tea get out of the "desert" of innovation? 》

8.Futu News: "Naixue's Tea (02150.HK): Annual performance turns losses into profits, joining the expansion drives growth"

9. China.com: "The milk tea shop clerk had a dispute with the rider over a order, and the delivery conflict intensified"

10.Sina Finance: "Naixue's Tea New War: Burning Money, Shooting, Selling Coffee"

(Xiaoke Lao A)