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The real bull market has not begun yet

2025-09-09 18:40:01 HKT

But, so far, the real bull market has not arrived. In fact, for A-shares, it is just a warm-up for the bull market. The basis for this judgment still comes from the long-term K-line. See the following picture:

What is a bull market? A bull market is called a breakthrough technical pressure. If there is no breakthrough, it means that the stock market still follows the old logical system, which means that the enthusiasm of market investors has not been well mobilized. Such a market is called a bull market, not a bull market. And the real bull market often comes after breakthroughs. Once the market crosses this accumulated trend line suppression for 20 years, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index will be flat.

It needs to be noted that I had predicted that this trend line was near 3920. It needs to be noted that this is a monthly K-line-level trend line. The longer the market breakout time is delayed, the more the ray will inevitably move downward. Therefore, if the Shanghai Composite Index starts to adjust sideways around 3900, it is based on the suppression of this trend line.

If it is a bull market, then the round adjustment of this market will be the last opportunity to get on the bus before the arrival of the "real bull market".

At present, investors in the stock market take the initiative to attack and watch the fire from the other side of the river both have a price. What most investors are afraid of is to "miss the bull market", so do two things:

First, firmly judge your trend, and if you believe it, you must firmly buy at the bottom;


If these sectors are the answers to this bull market, then the upward space of this bull market will be greatly compressed.

From a horizontal global perspective, it is difficult for China to compete with its trade rivals without technology, and it is not just the United States.

So, no matter what, when the Shanghai Composite Index deducts the threshold again, it must be the time when technology stocks rise again. The rise of these "traditional sectors" is nothing more than "covering" for the main force to adjust their positions.

However, new technologies also have phased focus. As September approaches the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day super long holiday, I personally believe that there are good phased opportunities in the sectors and individual stocks of the holiday economy + new consumption. Give a few examples for reference:

Lao Shop Gold, I didn't believe it at first, I couldn't explain why I went to the old shop and saw the crowds of people queuing up, until I saw that other gold shops were still "there were few cars and horses in front of the door". But "shocked".

Damai Entertainment, I saw some middle-aged boys and girls chasing stars, and watched concerts, and saw some people born in the 1980s and 1990s crazy contributions to the old "Idol". Although they may not understand the second-dimensional culture, they were also "shocked".

Popular Mart, the IP of Labub may be coming to an end, but Labub is the second time that Popular Mart has risen. Trendy toys are not just blind boxes. When you see trendy toy shops all over the streets, it is also "shocked" and deflation, and it seems that it has never appeared in the trend toy market.


Lv Changshun (Keynes) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal opinions and does not constitute a basis for buying and selling. The stock market is risky, so you should be cautious when investing]

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