[This article is only published on today's headlines, reprinting is not allowed]
Since this year, the A-share market has quietly started a slow but stable upward trend. In sharp contrast to the "crazy bull" in 2015, this market showed obvious characteristics of "slow bull". The formation of this market is not accidental, but the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as macroeconomic recovery, strong policy support, and abundant capital supply. Its future evolution will depend on the dynamic balance between deepening economic transformation and risk factors.
As of the end of August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 41%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 59%, the ChiNext Index rose by 95%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 doubled, and the Beijing Composite Index rose by 173%. The market's rising pace has been significantly extended, and the leverage level, turnover rate and incremental capital structure are all more moderate.
1. Causes of the market: dual-wheel drive of policy and technology
The launch of this slow bull market is not accidental, but the result of the dual driving force of policy and technology. On the policy side, a package of incremental stimulus policies since September 2024 has brought about double easing of monetary and fiscal easing.
The low interest rate environment has become an important driving force in the market. The interest rates of one-year deposits in the six major banks fell below 1%, and recently many banks lowered the interest rates for three to five-year deposits. Low interest rates lower discount rates, thereby increasing stock valuations.
In terms of technology, China is moving from a demographic dividend to an engineer dividend, and the technological intelligent manufacturing industry is rising rapidly. The stock prices of technology companies such as Cambrian have even surpassed Moutai and have become the king of Chinese stocks.
2. Funding structure: controllable leverage, deposit moving
Compared with 2015, the capital structure of this bull market is healthier. In 2015, the off-market gray leverage was about 1.8 trillion yuan, becoming an amplifier that later stepped on the market.
Now, this gray lever chain has been uprooted and is so small that it can be ignored. Although the current balance of margin financing and margin financing has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, setting a record high, the balance of margin financing and margin financing and margin financing accounts for less than 3% of the market value of the circulation, compared with 4.27% ten years ago.
Resident deposit moving is an important driving force for this bull market. In July, the monthly deposits of residents decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, and the deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 2.14 trillion yuan. According to CICC, there is still a "reserve team" with 5-7 trillion yuan in deposits for residents.
3. Market characteristics: Slow bull and oscillation coexist
The biggest feature of this round of market is the coexistence of "slow bull" and "oscillation". Since the market started on September 24, 2024, it has adopted the rhythm of "taking two steps and taking one step back".
From September 2nd to 4th, the market fell for three consecutive days, entering the consolidation period for the first time. This is not the beginning of a bear market, but the relay and consolidation period of a bull market.
Under the background of "slow bull", the index pullback is relatively mild, the consolidation period is longer, and the index shows a trend of oscillating and repairing. When the index rose more stably in the early stage, the index retracement was around 7%-9%, and the consolidation time was about 1-2 months.
IV. Section rotation: from AI hardware to new energy
The main market line is undergoing subtle changes. The AI hardware sector performed well in the early stage, and the optical module CPO sector produced 8 doubled stocks this year.
Cambrian rose 387% this year, and Zhongjixu's performance rose 200%. The innovative drug sector has also ushered in explosive growth, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index rising by 66% this year.
Recently, the main market line has shown signs of switching from the previous high AI hardware to the low energy storage and new energy directions. Overseas energy storage demand has grown explosively, and domestic energy storage battery cell companies have increased orders, resulting in a situation of "hard to find a single core".
Sunshine Power's energy storage business revenue in the first half of the year was 17.803 billion yuan, an increase of 127.78% year-on-year, accounting for 40.89% of the total revenue, surpassing the photovoltaic business for the first time and becoming the largest source of revenue.
V. Future Outlook: The Slow Bull will continue
Looking forward, most institutions believe that the slow bull market will continue. Most of the nine brokerages believe that after experiencing the previous rise, the market may show a period of fluctuation and consolidation, but the market will not stop there.
The expectations of performance improvement brought by the "anti-involved" policy, as well as the expectations of liquidity improvement brought by the entry of residents' savings into the market, have not changed significantly. The foundation of this bull market has not been shaken.
The rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will also support the market. The U.S. non-farm employment data in August was far lower than expected, strengthening the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut. The Fed's interest rate cut will bring more monetary policy space to the central bank, which will help maintain the current good momentum in the stock market.
VI. Investment strategy: Grasp sector rotation opportunities
In terms of investment strategies, investors should seize the opportunities for sector rotation. With the idea of switching between high and low, focus on the track where the growth rate is lagging behind but the logic of prosperity is still there.
New energy, new consumption, innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, non-bank finance, dividends and other sectors are worth paying attention to. Energy storage and new energy directions may replace AI hardware and become the main line of a new round of market growth.
Service consumption is still the key support direction for expanding consumption. In September, we can gradually plan the consumption direction of tourism, catering, duty-free, movies and other services.
As of early September, although the market experienced a brief adjustment, the medium- and long-term upward trend has not changed. The entry of residents' savings deposits into the market will continue to become an important support for the market's strengthening.
Looking forward, the continuation of the slow bull market will depend on the evolution of three factors. From a support perspective, the industrial opportunities brought by the deepening of economic transformation are worth looking forward to. The improvement of profits of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the rapid development of strategic emerging industries will continue to create investment highlights. At the policy level, the central bank has made it clear that it will maintain abundant liquidity and promote the decline in comprehensive financing costs. The continuity of monetary policy will provide a stable environment for the market. With the deepening of the opening up of the financial market, the space for foreign capital inflows remains broad and is expected to become an important driving force for the market.
In the future, with the advancement of the "anti-internal volume" policy and the introduction of demand-side policies, the A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen. The slow bull market is not a sprint, but a marathon, which requires investors to maintain patience and confidence.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious if there is risk in the stock market and investment!
