The situation in A-shares has changed suddenly! Technology blue chips have made up for the decline, and the market risk aversion sentiment has heated up.
Today, the three major indexes fluctuated downward throughout the day, with more than 4,000 stocks falling in the two markets. SMIC, the highly-watched semiconductor leader, was beaten when it resumed trading today, and directly fell -10%. Most of the theme concepts fell, with a median rise and fall of -1.18%, and the money loss effect was obvious!
Ear September, A-shares suddenly changed!
1. The cooling has dropped!
The transaction volume of 2.12 trillion yuan was 300.2 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The highest transaction volume in this round exceeded 3 trillion yuan, which is 1 trillion yuan less than the high! Trading sentiment has dropped sharply, and the market has shrunk and fluctuated, making it easy to lose money!
Slower means longer, fast means short. The market will move slower and more stable, but in fact it will accumulate strength for the next round of offense. Once the volume shrinks below 2 trillion, it can be regarded as an adjustment end signal and the rebound is about to break out!
2. Release risks in advance!
Recently, the media has issued articles: funds are overly grouped,Liquidity risks must be prevented in advance.
Yesterday I compared computing power hardware to: hot potatoes because this direction is too popular. Over-grouping of funds not only sacrifices market liquidity, but also makes it easier to cause the entire market sentiment to collapse when the group collapses, resulting in the missed killing of most individual stocks.
Some people question: There is Nvidia in the US stock market, can't A-shares be copied? Lao Qian feels that real gold is not afraid of fire. If the growth rate of computing power and hardware performance continues to maintain, it is possible to rise for another 10 years. But the problem is: you can't kill the increase in the next three years in 3 months and overdraw the future in advance!
Bank: China's artificial intelligence capital expenditure is expected to reach RMB 700 billion this year. By 2030, global artificial intelligence capital expenditure will reach US$800 billion.
The general trend of the AI industry remains unchanged. After cooling down, short-term computing power hardware may be repaired.
3. The theme rotation is accelerated, the organization gives way, and the quantification is active!
The person who tied the bell must also be able to untie the bell. As the absolute main line before September, computing power and hardware led the index and sentiment to continue to rise. Now, the style of institutions that have grouped together has begun to switch, leaving the initiative back to quantification.
Under the background of quantitative dominance, market themes rotate quickly like electric fans, which is also the stage where you are most likely to lose money. It is no longer like before September, even if it chases the rise, the error tolerance rate is very high and you can get rid of the trap the next day.
From the technical perspective, the three major indexes opened low and closed low, and all closed green. The Shanghai Stock Exchange opened 10 points lower, but it was weak in rebounding during the session, and finally closed down 19 points. Fortunately, it did not fall below the 20-day moving average and neckline, and stood above the 20-day moving average and neckline for three consecutive days, which can basically be confirmed as an effective recovery.
Since the three CPO musketeers "Yi Zhongtian" and high-recognition capacity large stocks were cashed in part, the index market has evolved into a volatile market, the main line market has transformed into a structural rotation market, and the frequency of large and small non-selling reductions has increased. In addition, the National Day holiday is approaching, the willingness of funds to attack has weakened, and the difficulty of operation has increased, and the market has entered the stage of individual stocks in light index and heavy sectors.
Next, global markets will be eyeing the Fed, with market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September rising to 100%, and even a 50 basis point aggressive rate cut. Waiting for the interest rate cut to "boots land"! Spot gold continues to soar under the positive expectations of interest rate cuts. Today, the gold sector in the A-share market rose sharply, and many stocks such as Western Gold and Chifeng Gold hit the daily limit.
The Federal Reserve restarts interest rate cuts, and the return of foreign capital in Hong Kong stocks is expected to exceed expectations. The loose liquidity environment will provide strong support for Hong Kong stocks. Today, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks rose 1.19% to usher in three consecutive positive moments. From the perspective of sectors, innovative drug research and development, as a typical capital-intensive field, is more sensitive to liquidity and is expected to benefit first.
Domestic policy support + outbreak of overseas travel + improvement of global competitiveness is expected to continue to drive the valuation of the innovative drug sector. In the second half of the year, the catalysts also include medical insurance negotiations, academic conferences, commercial insurance innovative drug catalogs and BD implementation, and the global market growth space has been further opened. The sector has continued to rebound since the beginning of the year, and the current valuation is still attractive.
The ETF tracks the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index, focusing on the entire Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry, covering innovative drugs,Internet medical, medical devices and other fields, including Innovent Biologics, Kangfang Biologics, Shiyao Group, WuXi AppTec, JD Health, etc. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF (513200) implements T+0 trading, and the trend is moving very steadily, rising 98.52% this year, ranking among the top in the growth rankings in the past year and two years. Over the market investors can also make one-click layout through the Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF Link Fund (Class A: 018557; Class C: 018558).
