The trade war rekinds its tide, and the US military is showing signs of fatigue

Trump went straight to China as soon as he came to power. In March 2025, he repeatedly mentioned China in his speech, saying that he had suffered a loss in the past and now he had to make it back. As a result, within a few days, the tariffs on Chinese goods were imposed on 10% and the words were said to increase to 60%. This incident caused chaos in the market, the stock market was shaking, and companies were busy settle accounts.

China is not idle either. The Embassy in the United States issued a statement directly, meaning that China is ready to accompany it to the end regardless of tariffs or wars. The Ministry of Commerce immediately listed a counter-revolutionary list and increased taxes on American agricultural products and technology products, with considerable efforts. Global supply chains are already tense, and now they are even more chaotic. Many people are worried that economic frictions will spread to the security field.

In fact, this is not the first time. Trump had a trade war when he was in his first term, and now he is making a comeback, with the background that the United States wants to suppress China's technological rise and protect its own industries. However, China's economy is resilient, with optimized export structure and domestic demand driving growth, and its dependence on the United States is not that great.

In contrast, domestic inflation pressure in the United States is high, and tariffs are one plus, and its own consumers pay first, and corporate costs rise. The think tank report shows that this confrontation has caused considerable losses to the US economy and hidden worries about unemployment rate emerge. China has stabilized the situation through diversified trading partners, promoted the "Belt and Road" cooperation and expanded the circle of friends.

At the same time, the troubles of the U.S. Navy are becoming increasingly obvious. The shipbuilding industry has experienced a serious recession. During World War II, there were more than 50 shipyards, and now there are less than 20 in the country, and only 4 military use remain. Maintenance has also become a problem, relying on private contractors, and maintenance delays occur frequently. Navy officers and soldiers had to repair the ship repeatedly, and they had a long duty time and consumed a lot of physical strength.

At the Congressional hearing, officials acknowledged that the budget was overspent and the fleet was difficult to expand. The cost of ship planning in 2025 is 46% higher, with an average of $40 billion per year, but the actual implementation cannot keep up. Compared with the 234 warships of the Chinese Navy, the United States has only 219, which is behind in number. The CSIS report pointed out that China's navy is growing rapidly and is expected to lead the firepower by 2027.

The United States tries to share the pressure through its allies, but its effect is limited. As a key partner, Australia originally wanted to rely on the support of the United States to strengthen its military strength, but the actions of the Chinese Navy made it restless. In February 2025, the South China Sea Fleet Hengyang frigate, Weishanhu supply ship and the East China Sea Fleet Zunyi destroyer Zunyi and the East China Sea Fleet Zunyi destroyer were formed to exercise in the Tasman Sea, the closest to 278 kilometers from Sydney.

The exercise included live-fire shooting, and Australia monitored the entire process, but admitted that it was an unusual event. China's Ministry of Defense responded that the action is in line with international law and Australia's hype is unreasonable. The Type 055 destroyer has a large tonnage and strong firepower. It is equipped with the Eagle Strike-21 missile and can strike aircraft carriers at a long distance. Western media admits that it has changed the balance of the Western Pacific.

This fatigue is not a sudden outbreak. The US Navy has been over-deployed for a long time and the backlog of repairs has caused the submarine to remain idle for many years. Think tanks recommend reducing the existence of frontiers and turning to retreat, but the hole is too big to be filled. China's anti-intervention/regional denial capabilities have been enhanced, and missiles such as Dongfeng-26 cover the first island chain, threatening Okinawa and Philippine bases.

70% of the facilities in the United States are concentrated in Okinawa, with 19,000 Marines stationed. Once a conflict occurs, heavy losses will occur. In early 2025, the United States announced the move of 9,000 people from Okinawa to Guam in an attempt to consolidate the second island chain. But Chinese exercises prove that the People's Liberation Army can freely enter the second island chain, and that Guam and Australia bases are not safe.

Naval operation responds, island chain defense line shaking

The Chinese Navy's long-sea activities are becoming more and more frequent. From February to March 2025, the fleet circled around Australia and carried out multiple training sessions, including the Yellow Sea, the South China Sea and the Tasman Sea. Zunyi 055 leads the showcase of hypersonic missiles and air defense systems. Indian media calls it the world's largest warship, and its shipbuilding speed is far higher than that of other countries.

The Australian Defense Minister publicly evaluates China's strength and admits that a 055 can defeat most of the Australian Navy. Australia put pressure on the grounds of interference with civil aviation and low transparency. The Chinese ambassador to Australia responded that there is no need to apologize, and it is normal to carry out activities as a major country.

The background of this operation is that Australian military aircraft breaks into the airspace of the Xisha Islands. China responds with this and warns Australia not to follow the United States in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In the past, China-Australia relations eased due to trade sanctions, but after the United States restarted the tariff war, China reminded Australia not to choose sides.

Rand Company's 2024 report pointed out that the first island chain is not guaranteed, the second island chain is unstable, Chinese missiles can destroy US bases, and the White House must withdraw troops from the front. The artificial island of the South China Sea is equipped with radar and missiles, transforming into a fixed aircraft carrier, combining with 055, 052D, aircraft carrier, J-16, and J-20 to form a powerful denial network.

The US island chain strategy was originally intended to lock in opponents. The three-layer chains ranged from Japan to Australia and New Zealand, but China's improvement in capabilities made it ineffective. The first island chain is within the scope of the attack. Rand suggested that the center of gravity be shifted to the second island chain, Guam as the core, and Australia is the South anchor to provide logistics and intelligence.

Australia is 4,000 kilometers away from East Asia, and is relatively safe at the edge of the range of Dongfeng-26. But the Chinese fleet appeared at the border between Australia and New Zealand, proving that the second island chain could fail at any time. CSIS admitted that the United States has followed the Cold War mentality and is confident that China's military strength will not surpass the United States, but it was targeted to counter it. The Chinese Navy is the largest in the world, with rapid firepower growth, and the US Navy has been weak for decades.

The US military adjusted its deployment and strengthened its bases in Guam and Australia, but China's actions exposed its flaws. The Center for Strategic and International Research predicts that China's naval firepower will be superior to the United States in 2027, the second island chain collapses, and the third island chain is difficult to protect. The US shipbuilding industry is backward, and the production of new ships such as the zodiac level has been delayed for three years, and allies are subject to regulations. Navy culture hinders innovation, officers and soldiers are exhausted, and the entire fleet is exhausted. Think tanks recommend abandoning cutting-edge strategies, but existing problems have become chronic diseases.

China's move is in line with international norms and is different from the "freedom of navigation" of the United States, and has no excuse to provoke. According to external analysis, this is a warning to the US alliance system, the People's Liberation Army breaks through the restrictions on island chains and moves freely. Australian national security experts believe that in addition to showing off their muscles, they also declare to the United States that they have no obstacles to entering the second island chain. US think tanks admit that China's military strength is changing with each passing day, and the US military has become the "fat meat" it gives away.

Comparison of strength reverses, China's advantages are highlighted

Comparing with the Sino-US naval forces, China leads in numbers, and the US tonnage and missile capacity are temporarily superior, but the gap narrows. CSIS chart shows that the number of Chinese Navy surpassed the US ships since 2014 and is expected to continue to grow. China's defense expenditure PPP is calculated to cost $541 billion, accounting for 59% of the United States and 42% of the equipment level, but the growth rate is fast. The 2022 report of the US estimates that China has 1,500 nuclear warheads in 2035, and now it is adjusted higher. The PLA is accelerating its modernization and key drills around Taiwan are being conducted.

The US Navy has a deep crisis, and the 2025 plan is high and it is difficult to implement. The Navy sets a target of 80% of ships in 2027, but the budget is flat and the scale remains unchanged. Industrial trends are weak, workers are short, and assembly lines are vacant. Congressional report said that insufficient production capacity will affect deployment. Allies such as Australia and Canada's South China Sea exercises were attempting to fill the seats, but the effects were limited under China's surveillance.

China's military strength assessment, the Rand Interactive scorecard shows that the comparison of China-US capabilities in ten areas, and China has the advantage in some operating areas. The report says that China's population dynamics affect PLA, but the current advantages are obvious. The US Incentive Conflict Competition Cooperation Table shows that in the Asia-Pacific, China has a strong willingness to cooperate, but the US confrontation intensifies.

Overall, the United States' intelligence was mistaken for intelligence, the island chain strategy collapsed, and the US military was exhausted and unable to recover. China's strength is revealed and it has the upper hand in the game. In the future, 2027 will be a key node, and the Chinese Navy will overtake the whole country, and the United States will have to reflect on its strategy.