According to Shangguan News, on the evening of September 4, the North Korean leader stood at the end of the red carpet, waved goodbye, and prepared to return to Pyongyang by special train. On the platform, Chinese guard of honor, farewell regiment, and senior diplomatic officials were all present, and the Chinese Foreign Minister saw him off in person. The scene is grand and restrained, with a sense of rituals from a great power and a hint of mysterious color belonging to North Korea. In the past five days and four nights, the North Korean leader has stayed in China for 54 hours, not long, but this historically-level secret talk has caused sensation in the sky on the peninsula. Supported by China and Russia, North Korea "breaks the circle", the United States is sour, South Korea is afraid - this scene is enough to be written into the core chapter of the 2024 Northeast Asia geopolitical script.
The North Korean leader's visit to China is unprecedented. In the past few visits, whether it was taking a special train to Beijing in 2018 or flying to Dalian in 2019, the stay time was 25 hours, 27 hours, up to two days and one night. This time, he worked until five days and four nights, and in Beijing, he set a new record of all North Korean leaders visiting China. With his daughter and economic team, the North Korean leader not only parades with the Chinese leader and Putin, but also held a "high-end closed-door meeting" between China, Russia and North Korea at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. In addition, the first formal talks with China in six years, this specification and density are extremely rare in the world.
The North Korean leader left three sentences before leaving: I wish China "infinite prosperity", China's celebrations "are also our happy event", and China-DPRK friendship "never change." What this implies is, on the one hand, it is a high recognition of China, and on the other hand, it is a deep binding of the fate of the DPRK and China again. This diplomatic expression is both gratitude and oath-North Korea must firmly grasp China, the only backer that can support it, and no one can replace China's position in the face of the peninsula.
Recalling the "core assets" that were discussed in this secret, China has made three commitments. First, respect North Korea's development path and support North Korea's right to choose its own future. This is extremely important at the moment when the United States, Japan and South Korea continue to put in "extreme pressure" and South Korea has just abolished Yoon Seok-yeol's tough policy toward North Korea. China's non-interference and support for autonomy is equivalent to giving North Korea a "supernatural needle". Second, comprehensive upgrade of practical cooperation. North Korea is suffering from economic difficulties, and relying on Russia alone is far from enough. The North Korean leader brought senior economic officials to visit, with the aim of expanding trade with China, attracting Chinese tourists, and promoting the legal export of North Korean migrant workers. This kind of cooperation is not simply "blood transfusion", but a comprehensive connection between experience, projects and governance models.
The North Korean leaders clearly require "exchange of experience in party building, economic development, etc.", which shows that North Korea has made up its mind to "learn from China." Third, both sides clearly stipulate that they jointly maintain peace and stability on the peninsula. Some people in the international community hope that the peninsula will "disturb the water", but China insists on "double suspension" and "double track progress" and opposes external forces using the North Korean nuclear power as an excuse to create tension. These three major promises are equivalent to putting the trump card of a community of shared future on the table.
The United States and South Korea naturally can't sit still. The attention of the US media on the North Korean leader’s visit to China is almost "sour". While saying that China-North Korea cooperation has intensified regional tensions, it is helpless to admit that China is the "ballast stone" of the situation on the peninsula. Western public opinion has always hyped up the "North Korea and Russia approaching", but North Korea itself is very clear that Russia's economic interests are limited, and its security is reliable, and its money bag still depends on China. The new South Korean government has just "changed the wind direction", abandoning Yoon Seo-yeol's confrontation line and turning to being pragmatic and stable. Behind this is not the sudden "discovery of conscience", but seeing the resilience and unshakableness of China-North Korea relations. No matter how many joint military exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea are, as long as the lines between Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow are stable, the peninsula will not be able to turn over.
The "security drama" of the North Korean leader has also become the focus of international hot discussion during this visit to China. As soon as Putin's talks ended, the North Korean security attendant immediately rushed into the venue, put on gloves, wiped the table, took the cup, and wiped the chairs, and even the chair covers that the North Korean leader had sat on. The special train is equipped with a special toilet, and the excrement is sealed and brought back. When I went to Vietnam in 2019, I also packed the mattresses I slept in. All this is to prevent foreign intelligence agencies from obtaining DNA samples for analysis of health conditions. This extreme caution is not only personal security, but also an extreme manifestation of state secret management. The outside world thinks it’s a big deal, but North Korea thinks it’s “no small matter” – in the cracks of the game between big powers, you can’t even lose a single hair.
This secret talk between China and North Korea actually gave the outside world some strong signals. First, North Korea took the initiative to "break the circle". In the past, North Korea was often labeled as "isolated" and "closed" by Western public opinion. During this visit to China, the North Korean leaders not only had the same stage as the Chinese and Russian leaders, but also had a brief contact with senior Korean officials of "walking while walking". Both the exposure of the diplomatic stage and the density of high-level interactions have been significantly improved. Second, China-North Korea strategic cooperation has been further implemented. In addition to traditional political and security cooperation, this time we focus more on new areas such as economy, industry, and personnel exchanges. Last year, the total trade volume between China and North Korea was US$2.18 billion, which was less than before the epidemic, but the recovery momentum was obvious. North Korea urgently needs Chinese tourists, labor exports, and technical support, and China also needs North Korea's strategic buffering and regional stability. Third, the peninsula pattern is "stable and changeable". South Korea is pragmatic and seeking stability, North Korea "breaks the circle" and upgrades, China and Russia work together to support the bottom, the United States and Japan respond passively, and the possibility of a "change of the sky" on the peninsula has dropped sharply.
China's three commitments are "ballast stone", North Korea's pragmatic transformation is "propeller", and China-Russia support is "amulet". No matter how much pressure the United States puts or how "South Korea is "fearing", it will be difficult to shake this strategic main line. The old scripts of the West that "abandon the North Korea to control China" and "labelled South Korea to control North Korea" are becoming increasingly unsuccessful. As long as Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow continue to join forces, Northeast Asia's initiative is in its own hands.
After all, the secret talks of the North Korean leader are a realistic response to the geopolitical pattern in East Asia. The United States can be sour, South Korea can be afraid, and the West can hype "tightness", but North Korea has proved with its actions that as long as China and Russia support it, North Korea can walk its own path with peace of mind, and the peninsula cannot be overturned. The friendship and sharing of destiny between China and North Korea is not a slogan, but the true confidence of peace on the peninsula.
