A-share market opened today and technology stocks showed off their muscles. However, the good times did not last long and began to enter a state of differentiation and consolidation. The three major indexes were in a high and a decline during the session and once turned green, A-shares changed their faces faster and faster.
It is worth noting that the market index once again tests the 20-day moving average. Against this background, we need to find the reasons for the A-share market surge and fallback today and the major moves of the main funds during the session to judge whether it will still reverse. The following is my personal opinion, please test it patiently.
What is the reason for the Shanghai Composite Index to rise and fall?
The technology stocks were active on the surface today, giving people a comeback. Today, A-shares are another high-frequency switching performance. The reasons for the Shanghai Composite Index to rise and fall are as follows.
Reason 1,The market index failed to increase its volume and stood above the 10-day moving average, resulting in a technical upward trend not obvious. Once it surged, it attracted market selling pressure.
Reason 2,Da Technology has lost its main position in the market in the short term, and the funds on the market have their own ulterior motives and no longer have the combined force of the previous rise.
Reason 3,The big financial sector, only the banking sector was slightly red, and the securities and insurance sectors both showed a slight decline, and the move to protect the market was not obvious.
Reason 4,The market hot spots switched too quickly. After the solid-state battery opened low, it continued to pull back during the session. Today it switched to oil and gas mining, sports industry, film and television theaters and other sectors.
Reason 5,The market's long sentiment is average, and the rotational switching of intraday sectors cannot further increase market sentiment.
Will the main funds make big moves? Will they still reversal?
The market index has returned to near the 20-day moving average. Technically, the gains and losses of this trend line will determine the direction of A-shares' change. So, today the main funds have made great moves to boost technology stocks. Can A-shares reversal here and start a new round of rising market? I think, it is possible but the following two major conditions must be met.
Condition 1,When the direction of the market index is not clear, the market trading volume will be very important. As long as the market trading volume is not less than 2 trillion yuan, the market trend is expected to continue. Otherwise, if the market liquidity is lacking, there will be a continuous decline.
condition 2,At this critical moment, it is necessary to clarify the main sector of the market, whether it is a technology stock or other sectors? Here I will express my opinion. In the short term, I think technology stocks have already shown a market main position. Although they are making a comeback today, I am not good-looking. The explosion of technology stocks today is mainly stimulated by the good news from Alibaba, but Cambrian has conducted private placement at a high level, and such operations seem to have become the tradition of A-shares.
With the current frequent sector switching, the retail sector has quietly moved during the trading session in the past two days, and the advantage of the large consumer industry being still at a low level is expected to become one of the main lines in the fourth quarter.
Final summary
Comprehensive the above analysis, today's A-share market showed a trend of rising and falling, and the three major indexes collectively turned green and red during the session, and the market's face-changing speed was astonishing. At the critical moment when the market index returns to the 20-day moving average, whether A-shares can reverse and start a new round of rising markets needs to meet two major conditions: First, the market trading volume must be maintained above 2 trillion to maintain market liquidity, otherwise it will face the risk of continuous decline; second, it is necessary to clarify the main market sector. Although technology stocks are intended to make a comeback today, given that they have lost their main position in the short term and Cambrian's high-level private placement and other operations, their sustainability is doubtful.
At the same time, the retail sector has quietly changed during the trading session recently. Combined with the advantages of the large consumer industry still at a low level, it is expected to become one of the main lines of the fourth quarter. Currently, the market index is in a state of fluctuation and consolidation between the 10 moving average and the 20-day moving average. It is recommended not to be impatient in investment, and do not blindly chase the rise during the session. After the market trend is confirmed, the operating space will be greater. #Top the headlines chats about hot topics#
Statement: The above content is only personal opinion and is for reference only. Everyone is welcome to leave a message to discuss.
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