September is undoubtedly a key turning point in the real estate market process in 2025. The major meetings of central ministries and commissions are like a beacon, illuminating the road ahead for the chaos of the real estate market and clarifying the future development direction. This not only has great significance to the real estate industry itself, but also has a far-reaching impact on the stability of the macro economy, the improvement of people's livelihood and the harmonious development of society. With the release of a series of policy signals, the pattern of the real estate market is gradually undergoing profound changes. The three major trends have begun to emerge, and they will jointly reshape the future development pattern of the real estate market.
Policy relaxation: First-tier cities lead market changes
In 2025, first-tier cities represented by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have shown a loose attitude in real estate policies. On August 8, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Related Policies." The new policy has been adjusted in multiple key dimensions, like a timely rain, nourishing the dry real estate market.
The effect of policy adjustments was immediate. After Beijing relaxed the purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, the market popularity showed a significant increase. Home buyers who had been waiting and watching began to get ready, market expectations have improved greatly, and transaction activity has significantly increased, which has effectively promoted the development of Beijing's real estate market in the direction of "stop decline and stabilize". The rise in transaction volume and the stabilization of housing prices are all showing the positive effect of policy relaxation.
On August 25, the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Committee and six other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Measures for Real Estate Policy in the City". Among them, the construction plans of the "three major projects" such as affordable housing have attracted much attention. This measure will provide more solid housing security for middle- and low-income groups, allowing more people to realize their dream of "housing for a place to live" and promote the realization of social equity. At the same time, from the macroeconomic perspective, as an important pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry has a long industrial chain and a wide range of areas, covering multiple upstream and downstream industries such as construction, building materials, home furnishings, and home appliances. The relaxation of policy restrictions in first-tier cities is like throwing huge rocks into the calm lake, causing layers of ripples and driving the coordinated development of related industries. Construction workers have more job opportunities, the order volume of building materials companies is gradually increasing, and the home appliance market has ushered in a peak sales season.
The policy relaxation in first-tier cities is not an isolated incident, but a coordinated action under the unified deployment of the central government. This series of measures shows that on the basis of implementing policies based on the city-specific policies, the government pays more attention to the systematicity and coordination of policies, aiming to drive a virtuous cycle of the national real estate market through the demonstration effect of first-tier cities. Other second-tier and third-tier cities have also learned from the experience of first-tier cities and combined with their own actual situations to moderately adjust real estate policies to inject new vitality into the recovery of the real estate market.
Central tone set: Building a new model of real estate development
While local policies are being implemented one after another, the central level has also set a high-level tone for the development of the real estate market. The convening of the Central Urban Work Conference has pointed out a clear direction for the future development of the real estate market. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. This statement is of far-reaching significance, like a star inspiring the real estate industry and leading the real estate industry to a new journey.
From the perspective of industry development, building a new model of real estate development contains multiple levels of connotation. In terms of the housing supply system, we must further improve the dual-track system of "market + guarantee" to meet the housing needs of different income groups. For high-income groups, high-quality commercial housing can be purchased through market mechanisms; for middle- and low-income groups, affordable housing can be used to solve the housing problem. Affordable housing covers various types such as public rental housing, affordable housing, and price-limited commercial housing. Local governments have increased their investment to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing. In terms of land supply, priority will be given to the protection of affordable housing construction land and increase the amount of land supply. Some cities have specially designated prime locations for the construction of public rental housing, with complete supporting facilities and convenient transportation, providing a good living environment for middle- and low-income groups.
In the reform of basic real estate systems, the reform of pre-sale system, land system reform, real estate tax system reform, etc. will be gradually promoted. The reform of the pre-sale system will help reduce the risks of home buyers and enhance market transparency. In the past, when home buyers purchased pre-sale houses, they often faced the risks of unfinished properties. After the reform of the pre-sale system, they will strengthen requirements for developers' fund supervision and other aspects to protect the rights and interests of home buyers. Land system reform can optimize land resource allocation and improve land use efficiency. For example, some cities have explored the entry of collective commercial construction land into the market, increase land supply channels, and alleviate the tight land supply situation. The reform of the real estate tax system can regulate the market supply and demand relationship and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. By rationally setting real estate taxes, we will curb speculative demand for housing purchases and encourage reasonable housing consumption.
The meeting also emphasized the importance of high-quality housing construction. With the improvement of residents' living standards, the requirements for housing quality are also increasing. High-quality housing construction with "safety, comfort, green and smart" as the standard will become the development trend of the future real estate market. In terms of safety, the use of stronger building materials and advanced building technology ensures the safety of the house structure. In terms of comfort, it pays attention to the details of the house's spatial layout, lighting and ventilation. In terms of green, promote the concept of green building, reduce building energy consumption, and reduce environmental pollution. In terms of wisdom, advanced information technology is introduced to realize functions such as smart home control and smart security, providing residents with a more convenient and comfortable living experience. This can not only improve the quality of life of residents, but also promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading in the real estate industry, prompt real estate companies to increase R&D investment and enhance their competitiveness.
In the process of building a new model of real estate development, establishing a collaborative real estate supervision mechanism is also a key link. By strengthening the coordination and cooperation between various departments and forming a regulatory synergy, we can effectively prevent real estate market risks and maintain market order. In the past, there were some chaos in the real estate market, such as false propaganda and illegal sales, which seriously damaged the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers and disrupted market order. Now, multiple departments have taken joint action to increase the frequency of inspections of real estate projects, establish a normalized inspection mechanism, and promptly detect and investigate illegal and irregular behaviors of real estate companies. Companies that publish false housing information and sell illegally will be severely punished in accordance with the law and regulations to make the market return to fairness and justice.
Market Trend: Stop decline and stabilize and differentiate coexist
From the market performance, after September, stimulated by favorable policies, the real estate markets in some cities have shown signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. Especially in some hot first- and second-tier cities, under the influence of a series of policy combinations such as lowering down payments, lowering mortgage interest rates, and lowering taxes and fees, the transaction volume of the real estate market has rebounded significantly year-on-year since October. The once sluggish market began to gradually recover, and home buyers' confidence has recovered to a certain extent.
However, the market differentiation still exists. Due to its strong economic vitality and high population attractiveness, first- and second-tier cities have relatively fast market recovery under policy stimulation. These cities have rich employment opportunities and high-quality educational and medical resources, which attract a large number of people to inflow and have a strong demand for housing. In some third- and fourth-tier cities, due to factors such as weak industrial foundation and population outflow, the inventory pressure in the real estate market is still relatively high, and it is relatively difficult for the market to stabilize. Some third- and fourth-tier cities have a single industrial structure, lack of support from emerging industries, and insufficient momentum for economic development, resulting in limited employment opportunities. Young people have gone to big cities to seek development, resulting in reduced local housing demand and serious inventory backlog.
Behind this market differentiation is the result of the combined effect of various factors such as urban development level, population mobility, and industrial structure. For first- and second-tier cities, we should pay attention to the sustainable development of the real estate market on the basis of market stability and avoid overheating. Strengthen market monitoring, adjust policies in a timely manner, and ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. For third- and fourth-tier cities, it is necessary to further optimize the supply structure of the real estate market based on their own actual situation, increase investment in affordable housing, and solve the housing problems of middle- and low-income groups. At the same time, through industrial upgrading and talent introduction, the city's comprehensive competitiveness will be enhanced, population return will be attracted, and the healthy development of the real estate market will be promoted. Some third- and fourth-tier cities actively cultivate emerging industries, build characteristic industrial parks, provide preferential policies to attract enterprises to settle in, increase employment opportunities, and create conditions for the recovery of the real estate market.
Industry Transformation: Diversity and Sustainable Development
Faced with market changes and policy guidance, real estate companies are also actively seeking a path to transformation. The traditional real estate development model is no longer able to adapt to market demand, and more and more companies are beginning to develop in a diversified and sustainable direction.
In terms of business layout, enterprises are no longer limited to commercial housing development, but are expanding to areas such as affordable housing construction, long-term rental housing operation, and urban renewal. The construction of affordable housing is an important way to solve the housing problems of middle- and low-income groups. Real estate companies can participate in it to not only fulfill their social responsibilities, but also gain stable development space with policy support. The operation of long-term rental housing is in line with the changes in the consumption concepts of the younger generation and provides new urban citizens with more flexible and convenient housing options. Many young people pursue a free and flexible lifestyle, and the emergence of long-term rental housing has met their needs. Real estate companies have attracted a large number of young tenants by creating high-quality long-term rental housing communities and providing complete supporting services. Urban renewal projects can improve urban quality and improve residents' living environment, while also bringing new business growth points to real estate companies. Through the renovation of old communities and the upgrading of commercial areas, real estate companies can achieve asset appreciation and innovation in operational models.
In terms of sustainable development, green buildings and smart buildings have become the focus of attention of real estate companies. The promotion of the concept of green building will help reduce building energy consumption, reduce environmental pollution, and achieve harmonious coexistence between buildings and nature. Energy-saving lamps, water-saving appliances, solar panels and other equipment are adopted to improve the energy utilization efficiency of buildings. Smart buildings improve the intelligence level of buildings by introducing advanced information technology and provide residents with a more convenient and comfortable living experience. The applications of smart door locks, smart curtains, smart home appliance control systems, etc. allow residents to remotely control home devices through their mobile phones and enjoy an intelligent life. In the long run, the transformation of the real estate industry is not only an inevitable choice for enterprises to deal with market changes, but also an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development of the industry. Through diversified development and sustainable development, real estate companies can better adapt to market demand, enhance their core competitiveness, and achieve long-term and stable development.
Far-reaching impact: multi-dimensional change in economy, people's livelihood and society
A clear adjustment of the real estate market after September will have a profound impact on the economy, people's livelihood and society.
At the economic level, the stable development of the real estate market can drive the coordinated development of upstream and downstream industries and promote economic growth. The construction industry, building materials industry, home furnishing industry, home appliance industry, etc. are closely related to the real estate market. The recovery of the real estate market will bring new development opportunities to these industries. Employment opportunities for construction workers have increased, sales of building materials companies have increased, and the home appliance market has ushered in a consumption boom, thereby driving employment and consumption and promoting a virtuous economic cycle.
At the level of people's livelihood, the healthy development of the real estate market is related to whether residents' housing needs can be effectively met. By increasing the construction of affordable housing and optimizing the housing supply structure, more people can achieve the goal of having a place to live and improve residents' sense of happiness in life. For middle- and low-income groups, the increase in affordable housing gives them the possibility of living and working in peace and contentment; for improved home buyers, policy adjustments allow them to achieve better living quality.
At the social level, the stability of the real estate market is of great significance to the harmony and stability of society. Housing is the basis of people's livelihood. The stable operation of the real estate market can reduce social conflicts caused by housing problems and promote harmonious social development. When people can all have stable housing, the sense of security and cohesion in society will also increase.
Starting from September 2025, with the setting of the tone of the major meetings of central ministries and commissions and the implementation of local policies, the real estate market has entered a new stage of development. Policy adjustments, market changes, and industry transformation will all have a profound impact on the future trend of the real estate market. In this process, the government, enterprises and all parties in society need to work closely together to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and achieve a win-win situation in the economy, people's livelihood and society. Whether it is home buyers, investors, or real estate companies, they need to pay close attention to these changes, adapt to market trends, make reasonable decisions, find their own position in the new real estate market pattern, and achieve their own development goals.
