Today, A-shares emerged from "induce long rebound" - the three major indexes rose in the early trading and then fell back. Although the market closed higher, there was a hidden crisis. The big technology sector rebounded oversold but had a sharp rebound, and the theme stocks were obviously greedy. More than 2,700 stocks in the two markets fell, and the money-making effect was poor. The transaction volume of the whole day was only 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 140 billion yuan from yesterday. Anyone with discerning eyes can see the "unlimited increase".
From a technical perspective, after the market formed a W bottom on the 15-minute time-sharing chart in the morning, it relied on the A50 futures to rise and rise to near the 181 antenna at 3828 points, but fell rapidly in the afternoon. Although the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board rose by more than 2% during the session, they failed to stand firm in the key position.
This "precise rise and fall" trend is essentially because the main funds sell pressure above the test, but found that there were few followers and could only retreat in disappointment. In terms of volume-price relationship, shrinking volume and rising volume are typical signals of inducing long-term numbers, and the net outflow of main funds exceeds 10 billion, further confirming the fragility of the market.
The core contradiction in the current market lies in collective vacation of funds. The recent volume has continued to shrink, reflecting that most funds have pessimistic expectations for short-term rises and are deeply afraid of highs. The main funds completed a high turnover as early as when their emotions were high.
Retail investors are still fantasizing about the market reversal, but they do not realize that the market has entered the "post-main stage". As the money loss effect spreads, retail investors are forced to passively leave.
For tomorrow's trend, it is likely to copy the script of "open low and closing low + obvious negative lines". The demand for adjustments in the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board is strong, while defensive sectors such as banks, real estate, and infrastructure may strengthen against the trend, and the 28-8 differentiation market will dominate the market.
In this case, blindly chasing high-themed stocks is tantamount to taking advantage of the fire. Instead, it is better to pay attention to low-valuation defensive varieties, which can at least provide a certain safety cushion when the market is in a mess.
Investors need to understand that the current market has entered the end of the stock game. The main funds' behavior of pushing up the index is more to cover up the withdrawal of some funds rather than launching a new round of market conditions.
The essence of the infinite rebound is "maintaining the index with less money", but this kind of game is doomed to be unable to last. Instead of struggling in the market, it is better to take advantage of the rebound to reduce your position and wait for the volume to re-enlarge or pull back to the key support level before making plans.
A final reminder: When the market even real estate and banks start to protect the market, it often means that the market is coming to an end. At this time, controlling positions and reducing expectations is more important than blind game.
Tomorrow, we will focus on whether the GEM can maintain the 5-day moving average and whether the volume of the two markets will rebound to more than 2 trillion yuan. These two signals will determine whether the future market will rebound or be a fake lure.
Follow me and analyze the market trend for you every day.
