The overall market has been going well today, but the trading volume has shrunk to below 2 trillion yuan, which is the lowest in the last 20 trading days, 3 trillion yuan less than the previous peak, 1 trillion yuan less.

AI technology, which had a previous pullback of 20-30%, showed a significant rebound today, and Industrial Flexibles hit the daily limit.

From the news, it was mainly because last night, Oracle released its latest financial report, with performance exceeding expectations.

It is expected that cloud infrastructure revenue will soar 77% in fiscal 2026 to US$18 billion.

What is even more shocking is that the company announced that its "remaining performance obligations" (RPO) has soared to US$455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359%.

What does it mean?

is Oracle's direct statement that the future income "unconfirmed" is, the equivalent of 3 trillion yuan of orders in hand #F04142; --tt-darkmode-color: #F04142;">.

This is not a forward prediction, but is based on the performance obligations of the signed contract, with high certainty.

The capital market responded quickly, and its stock price soared by more than 30% after the market, with a market value approaching US$200 billion.

1. The AI ​​capital expenditure of technology giants is increasing

Behind Oracle's radical guidance is the collective bet of global technology giants on the demand for AI computing power.

In the past, the growth of cloud services relied on enterprise IT migration, but now, AI big model training, reasoning, and reasoning as a service are becoming the core driving force of cloud revenue.

The CEO of Oracle has made it clear that the company has signed several "billion-dollar" cloud contracts with AI leading companies such as OpenAI, xAI, and Meta.

What these customers need is large-scale, high-performance, low-latency GPU clusters, and Oracle is rapidly building its OCI AI cloud capabilities by increasing the construction of computing power infrastructure.

More key is the leap in capital expenditure:Original expects capital expenditure to jump to approximately US$35 billion in fiscal 2026, far higher than the previous estimate of 25 billion and 21 billion in 2025.

This money will be all invested in data centers, network infrastructure and AI chip procurement.

And everyone must know that not only Oracle, but also the AI ​​capital expenditure of global technology giants:

Amazon AWS: Capital expenditure is expected to exceed US$60 billion in 2025, focusing on Graviton chips and Trainium training chips.

Microsoft Azure: CapEx is expected to reach US$55 billion in 2025, of which more than 40% is used for AI infrastructure.

Google Cloud: Capital expenditure is expected to be US$45 billion in 2025, and customized AI chips are being implemented at an accelerated pace.

Meta: The planned capital expenditure exceeds US$30 billion in 2025, and 350,000 H100/B100-level GPUs are deployed.

Behind these numbers is a clear logic:AI is not an innovation at the application level, but a reconstruction of the underlying computing power.

One ​​more thing is that while global giants continue to increase capital expenditures, orders are indispensable for upstream companies.

2. A-share AI hardware pullback 20%-30%

From the recent market perspective, the AI ​​hardware sector of A-shares has generally pulled back 20%-30% since its August high.

Today, the transaction volume of the two markets fell to less than 2 trillion yuan, and market sentiment became calm, and some funds began to question "whether AI hardware has peaked."

After all, many technical schools think that the technical aspects of AI technology are going badly.

Have the fundamentals of these companies changed? No.

What has changed is only market sentiment.

But we need to be clear that the underlying logic of global AI data center upgrades has not changed.

Taking optical modules as an example, 800G products have been shipped on a large scale, the 1.6T technical route is clear, and the visibility of overseas orders, which is currently the industry leader, has been ranked until 2026.

Looking at servers and liquid cooling, many domestic companies have global competitiveness in domestic computing power and liquid cooling technology.

The current callback is more about the market's concerns about short-term liquidity than the impact of fundamental changes.

3. Is the capital congestion high? What is the impact?

There are many people in the market recently discussing this issue, so at the moment, we must look at the investment opportunities of AI hardware, and we will definitely not avoid this issue.

So today the cheetah uses data to compare it, which is more intuitive:

From September 24, 2024 to September 5, 2025, Shenwan secondary industry, which had the top 10 gains in A-shares, rose by an average of 110%.

Sounds quite a lot?

But compared with the bull market from 2013 to 2015, the average peak increase of the TOP10 industries was 446%.

110% vs 446%, only one-quarter.

Look at the "100-day high stock share" - this indicator measures the market width.

At the craziest in 2015, 64% of stocks were hitting highs simultaneously.

In this round of market, the recent high of "100-day high stocks" was only 25%.

What does this mean?

The current market is still in the stage of "leader leading the rise" and the money-making effect has not spread yet.

In other words, if this is a big-level bull market,From historical comparison, the current increase may still be in its early stages.

As the link in the entire AI industry chain, AI hardware is better verified and able to speak with orders #000000; --tt-darkmode-color: #A3A3A3;">The AI ​​hardware sector may still be one of the key tracks for capital allocation.

Written at the end

What do you fear most when investing? It's a wrong judgment.

For example, this is to regard the ups and downs of emotions as fundamental changes.

Of course, changes in market sentiment may also reflect some forward-looking expectations.

For AI technology, the callback at this moment may not be the end point, but may be the starting point of a new round of upward trend.

Special statement: The above content does not constitute any investment advice, guidance or commitment, and is for academic discussion only.

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