In July 2025, a set of global economic data fluctuated the screen on social platforms. The United States is 14.93 trillion US dollars, Japan is 2.1 trillion US dollars. As soon as the number was announced, the comment section became lively: "Is there 10 trillion in China?" "Are we left behind?" The discussion heated up quickly.
People stare at these numbers, like the weight in the physical examination report. If you are less weight, you are worried about being guilty; if you are more heavy, you are afraid of being fat. The total GDP is like the number on the scale. If you don’t look at the bone density and muscle fat ratio, just stare at your weight, you won’t be able to see the truth.
The United States grew by 3%, which sounded very strong. Japan has 2.1 trillion yuan, which is stable. But if we really want to separate the components, the United States relies on the digital rebound caused by a 30% surge in imports. Under the surface prosperity, it is the reality that fiscal interest is approaching $1 trillion and $36.7 trillion of treasury bonds are under pressure.
Japan data also hides troubles: household food spending declined, automobile exports plummeted, and consumer confidence is sluggish.
What about China? 66053.6 billion yuan, equivalent to about 9.19 trillion US dollars, and delivered an answer sheet with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. Not the most eye-catching, but the most solid one. What does growth depend on? Rely on the upgrading of the industrial structure, the support of market domestic demand, and the self-circulation of the complete industrial chain.
The data cannot be just looking at "how much is there", but also "what depends on", this is the key.
Don't use abacus to look at the financial situation, China's GDP is not a "conspicuous package"
In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached RMB 66053.6 billion. Year-over-year growth of 5.3%. This is the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15th.
A closer look at the three major industries: The primary industry grew by 3.7%, the secondary industry grew by 5.3%, and the tertiary industry grew by 5.5%. This is not the same as the average, it is the three horses running side by side. This is the growth rate and the structure.
Foreign trade data are also powerful. The import and export of goods hit a record high in the same period, and foreign exchange reserves continued to stabilize at more than US$3.2 trillion.
The employment situation is not much attention, but it is the bottom support for economic operation. In the first half of 2025, the national surveyed unemployment rate stabilized between 5.0% and 5.4%. There was no explosion, no out of control, and the labor market was under pressure but not loosened.
CPI has been operating at a low level for a long time. The core CPI in June rebounded to 0.7%, a slight increase, but the overall area is still in a moderate range. Price control is effective, basic consumption is stabilized, and macro-control is sufficient.
From the quarterly pace, the growth in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the growth in the second quarter was 5.2%. Although there was a slight decline, it remained above 5%. This is not a decline, it is a normal fluctuation under the cardinal effect. The second quarter grew by 1.1% month-on-month, with a month-on-month growth rate higher than that of many countries, and is the result of the increase in high-frequency data.
Behind growth is the self-repair of the industry, the stability of policies, and the resilience of the market.
Economy is a signal system, not just a report. Numbers can be faked, but the market cannot lie. Stable the situation at the same time from multiple dimensions such as employment, prices, foreign trade, industry, and investment, this is the value of growth.
The United States relies on stimulation, Japan relies on foreign trade, and China relies on endogenousness. It’s not how much GDP is, but how it comes from, which explains the problem.
How did the US GDP "complete"? First cut 30% of the imports and try it out
In the second quarter of 2025, the United States released a set of "exciting" data: annual growth of 3%. This figure has aroused a lot of praise when market forecasts are generally below 2.4%. The media is overwhelming and comments are surging.
What's the problem? The ingredients list comes out of this number.
The official documents of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis are clearly written: In the second quarter of 2025, the total U.S. imports fell by 30% year-on-year, and the trade deficit narrowed, directly driving GDP growth by nearly 5 percentage points.
GDP accounting method determines that the increase in exports is a plus point, and the decrease in imports is also a plus point. When the United States cuts imports from nearly $500 billion in the second quarter of 2024 to $337.5 billion by raising tariffs, restricting imports, and reducing consumption, the GDP figures are naturally good.
But this is good-looking, it is good-looking with statistical caliber, not with market confidence. Americans cannot afford things, and the government does not encourage imports, so it can only forcefully "create prosperity" by suppressing consumption.
At the same period, the growth rate of domestic residents' consumption in the United States slowed down, and prices rose for five consecutive months. High interest rates suppress investment, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, and companies are extremely willing to expand jobs.
The financial end is tighter. Treasury bond balance is US$36.7 trillion, and annual interest is approaching US$1 trillion. What is the concept? Paying interest alone is more than 80% of the world's countries' GDP. Government funds are swallowed up by interest, and public service spending can only be reduced.
In July 2025, the US Treasury Department launched a "new gameplay": Open PayPal, Venmo and other platforms to receive public donations and repay national debts. This is called the "Public Debt Reduction Plan". It has been available since 1996 and has only raised US$67.3 million, accounting for 0.0002%.
But this time, this is the first time that the entire platform has opened up P2P payment, which is equivalent to admitting that the treasury is empty.
From the surface, GDP rose, moderate inflation, and stable employment. From the bottom perspective, consumption power has declined, investment has been restricted, and fiscal overdrafts. The growth is that the top layer of the collapsed building is added with an extra layer, rather than the foundation becoming thicker.
How long can this growth mechanism last? When consumers have no money, the government has no policies, and the market has no confidence, "high GDP growth" is just the data is moving upward, and the economic ontology is falling.
GDP is not a KPI and cannot be patched by algorithms. This round of growth in the United States is a victory in the account adjustment, not a reversal in reality.
Japanese rice, uncooked export list
In June 2025, Japanese household expenditure data were released. Overall year-on-year growth was 1.3%, which was far lower than expected2.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 5.2%, setting the largest decline since 2021. It's not about recession, but about daily expenses that are too short.
Food expenditure fell for the first time in three months, down 2.1% year-on-year. The staple food rice has the worst decline, and the decline of 12.1% is almost at a historical level. The reason is clear: The price is too high, and residents are forced to downgrade their consumption.
The official notice directly states: the public turns to low-priced alternatives and reduces the procurement frequency.
The consumer side is declining, and the export side is even more troublesome. Japan's automobile exports to the United States fell by 26.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, of which the export volume in Kyushu fell by 67.8% and the export volume plummeted by 76.3%.
From April 3, the United States will raise the Japanese automobile tariffs from 2.5% violently to 27.5%. This is not a digital game, it is a broken chain of automobile parts and a spinal fault in the Japanese economy.
The automobile industry accounts for one-third of Japan's exports to the United States, and it hits the automobile industry hard, which is the GDP of Japan. This is not a normal industrial adjustment, but a passive decline under the suppression of external policies.
Japanese household income does not rise, consumption is eroded by inflation; export structure is single, market is restricted and contracted; central bank policies are swaying, and monetary instrument space is limited. This is the background of Japan's GDP growth.
It is not that there is no growth, but that growth depends on the external environment. As soon as the tariff comes, raw materials are cut off, and consumption confidence is relaxed, the entire system will begin to retreat.
Look at China again. Exports are rising, industries are changing, and consumption is recovering. It’s not because we are lucky, but because we have room for response systems, industrial structure, domestic demand market, and policy.
China is not competing with the United States and Japan, but is stabilizing its direction in uncertainty. This comparison is not a competition of superficial numbers, but a watershed in development logic.
References:
The national economy has steadily improved in the first half of the year due to challenges. National Bureau of Statistics.2025-07-15
The Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics answers questions from reporters on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025. The National Bureau of Statistics.2025-07-15
The US GDP announced in the first half of the year. The reasons behind the rebound growth. Simple Finance. 2025-08-05
Inflation has become the main risk of the US economy during Trump's new term. Zhang Rui. 2025-01-19
Just just now! US Treasury, a major decision! .Securities Times.2025-07-27
Long-term factors for the surge in US Treasury yields again. 21st Century Business Herald. 2025-09-05
Japan Economy in Fiscal Years 2024 and Fiscal Years 2025.MUFG.2025-03-18
Japan household spending rose in June; pace slowed down due to rising food prices. Reuters. 2025-08-08
U.S. tariff policy hit Japan's automobile industry hard. Xinhua News Agency. 2025-08-18
