Gold is soaring! Is it an opportunity or a trap?

Under the promotion of multiple factors, international gold prices have continued to rise. On September 9, the international spot gold price broke through US$3,660/ounce and hit a new high, and the price of domestic jewelry gold has also reached the 1,000 yuan/gram mark. The gold market in 2025 has indeed staged a jaw-dropping and stunning market.However, behind this, there is a big transfer and a big game about global capital.

In this round, gold and the US dollar showed a classic "seesaw" divergence - the US dollar index fell to 98.1, a new low since April 2022, while gold remained strong. I don’t need to say much about the reason in the middle. It is obvious that this is a collective "voting with your feet" of global capital's credit for the US dollar.

After Trump took office, he launched a tariff war, triggering a three-killing kill on U.S. stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. Although some tariffs were suspended and adjustments were continuously adjusted, market anxiety did not dissipate. Funds are no longer at ease with US dollar assets, U.S. bond yields are frequently changing, and risk aversion is heating up in full swing.

What's even more deadly is the previous "weaponization" of the US dollar - the direct freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which completely awakened the whole world. Which country is not worried that the foreign exchange they have worked hard to turn into waste paper overnight? As a result, a quiet "de-dollarization" movement was fully launched.

Gold became the best "safe haven" at this time. It is not only anti-inflation and risk resistance, but more importantly, it does not rely on the credit of any country and is a real "hard currency". As a result, a large amount of funds poured into the gold market through ETFs, and the A-share gold sector also rose simultaneously, which sent a clear signal:Institutions and retail investors are scrambling to "insure" of uncertainty.

Global central banks are also buying gold frantically. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, 62% of central banks believe that the proportion of US dollar in total reserves will decline in the next five years. Data released by the People's Bank of China on September 7 showed that China's gold reserves were 74.02 million ounces at the end of August, an increase of 60,000 ounces from 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, making it the 10th consecutive month of gold increase. Obviously, everyone no longer fully trusts the US dollar and has begun to build their own financial "moat" with gold.

Looking back on history, every bull market in gold corresponds to the reconstruction of the world order and the collapse of monetary confidence. The Bretton Woods system collapsed in the 1970s, and gold prices rose 20 times; after the financial crisis in 2008, liquidity flooded, and gold rose more than 6 times. Since Trump launched the trade war in 2018, gold has quietly entered a bull market again. From 2018 to 2025, gold rose by as much as 150%.

At present, the United States is in high debt, society is torn, and industry is hollowing out, but it is still overdrawing its US dollar credit. In this context, gold is no longer a simple investment product, but a national strategic safe-haven asset and a "ballast stone" to deal with world uncertainty. In addition, the root cause of this big gold market is that the world is "chaos": the arms race is shrouded in shades, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and the surging wave of anti-globalization. In addition, countries are becoming increasingly worried about the US dollar, "de-dollarization" has become the common choice of many countries.

Seeing this, someone might ask: Is there room for gold to continue to rise in the future? Is it still time to buy gold now?

From the current perspective, even though gold prices have reached historical highs, the three core support is still stable, and the future market may not stop there.

First, the risk of a recession in the United States is increasing. Trump's tariff policy seems fierce, but in fact it backfired itself, and recession expectations have risen instead of falling. In addition, on September 10 local time, US President Trump posted a post on his social platform "Real Social" to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again and urged him to immediately cut interest rates. On September 10, CME's "Feder Observation" data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 7%. The market now generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Once it comes true, gold will inevitably usher in a new round of catalysis.

Secondly, the "fire" of global geopolitics is still adding fuel to the fire. Russia and Ukraine have not yet ceased to fight, the Middle East is still tense, and European countries have increased their military investment... The world is becoming increasingly uneasy, and risk aversion continues to run at a high level, and the value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset is more prominent.

Third, "de-dollarization" has gradually become an international consensus. Against the backdrop of soaring US debt and abusing financial sanctions, more and more central banks have chosen to increase their holdings of gold and reduce their dependence on the US dollar. According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, nearly 70% of central banks plan to continue to increase the proportion of gold reserves in the next five years, which is a clear signal:The US dollar credit is being questioned and the value of gold is being revaluated.

Therefore, this bull market for gold is likely to be a flash in the pan. Because behind it are the changes of the times, the changes of order, and the changes of credit.

But, having said that, we have to splash cold water into it - although gold is good, it is no longer something that ordinary people can "play around" casually. The current gold price is at a historical high. Although it remains strong in the short term under the support of multiple factors, the potential risks cannot be ignored. Once events such as the ease of geopolitical situation and the recovery of the US economy beyond expectations occur, gold prices are likely to experience a sharp pullback.

And gold does not have dividends like stocks and bonds with coupons. It does not generate any returns by itself, and its price is very susceptible to macro factors such as international politics, monetary policy, and US dollar trends, and has great volatility. Even if you are optimistic about gold in the long run, short-term fluctuations are enough to make people unable to bear it.

In short, the current gold price has more overdrafts in the future and will be more sensitive to the news side. At this time, a large proportion of gold assets are allocated, with a heavy speculative color, and no longer belongs to the category of stable investment. For investors with rich market experience and strong risk identification capabilities, they may consider flexibly participating in small positions; But for most ordinary investors, the current price game of gold is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious, and start from the overall perspective of asset allocation, avoid blindly chasing highs, and view market fluctuations rationally.

Lastly, I would like to remind you that investing is not gambling, nor is it joining in the fun. Those who can truly survive in this market are always those who are strategic, disciplined and patient. Although gold shines, the high price clearly tells us: the risk is far greater than the opportunity!