The Nepal riot has ended. What are the speculations about this riot? How did China express its opinion on the change of the Nepal regime?
Recently, the riots in Nepal that lasted for many days have finally subsided after Prime Minister Oli resigned. At present, in Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, the military is maintaining public order. On the surface, the reason for this riot was the public's dissatisfaction with the government. But in the eyes of the outside world, Oli is a "pro-China" prime minister, and his experience is inevitably related to the development of relations with China. Therefore, there are two speculations about this "color revolution"-style riot.
The first guess is that the United States and Western countries want to take advantage of this opportunity to destroy the surrounding situation in China. In the past few days, the media exposed a news that the United States is preparing to undergo strategic contraction next, because the United States must first ensure local security. This means that the United States may reduce its military deterrence against China in the future, but China is regarded as the "primary threat" by the United States, and the United States' strategy of containing China will not change due to its own strategic adjustments. Therefore, the United States needs to change its thinking on containing China and disrupt China's development in another way. This other method is most likely to create chaos around China, thereby restraining China's strategic layout and affecting China's development. You should know that there were similar riots in Indonesia before Nepal. From this perspective, the riots that occurred in Nepal were not accidental, but inevitable. With the fuel of the United States and Western countries, the people of Nepal vented their dissatisfaction with the government and ousted the Prime Minister who advocated the development of relations with China, which achieved the goals of the United States and Western countries. It can be said that the next China-Nepal relations are likely to face challenges.
The second guess is that India wants to take advantage of this opportunity to please the United States while beating Nepal. Everyone knows that India is in a very difficult situation at present. Due to its import of Russian oil, the United States imposes high tariffs on India. There are also reports that the United States will jointly impose up to 100% tariffs on India. Therefore, at this time, India must use some means to please the United States, hoping to successfully gain Trump's "understanding" in the subsequent tariff negotiations with the United States. Then, in addition to some of its own "operations", India's efforts to attack neighboring countries' pro-China politics have become a way to please the United States. From this perspective, India may also become the "master" behind the Nepal riots. Now that Nepal's "pro-China" Prime Minister Oli stepped down, India's goal of pleading the United States has been achieved.
In addition to pleasing the United States, India may have another meaning, which is to warn Nepal. You must know that before Oli came to power, Nepal had a very high dependence on India. So, on the surface, India believes that Nepal is a sovereign state. In fact, Nepal is equivalent to India's "back garden" and is within India's sphere of influence. After Oli came to power, he advocated developing relations with China and getting rid of dependence on India, which would undoubtedly arouse India's dissatisfaction. Therefore, India may also want to use this riot to rush "pro-China" Prime Minister Oli to step down, so that they can recognize the reality and re-view relations with India.
No matter what, no matter what the Nepal riots receive, is that as a small country, Nepal has very weak voice.
Nepal protesters have elected their new leader, former Chief Justice Karki. Although Kalki is only a transitional prime minister, she may be different from the former prime minister in terms of ChinaOli. As for domestic policy, Kalky will likely cater to the protesters' positions. In any case, as the riots gradually subside, the order of the Nepal country is gradually returning to normal.
At this time, in the face of the changing political situation in Nepal, China also expressed its position. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China and Nepal are traditional friendly neighbors and hope that all sectors of Nepal can restore social order and national stability as soon as possible. China has asked Nepal to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel and institutions in Nepal. It is not difficult to find from China's statement that on the one hand, China has briefed on Nepal and set the tone for China-Nepal relations. No matter how the Nepal regime changes, China's position on Nepal will not change. On the other hand, China believes that the riots are Nepal's internal affairs, and what China can do is to hope that the political situation in Nepal will be stable and ensure the safety of citizens and institutions in Nepal. Next, the specific direction of China-Nepal relations depends on whether the new Nepalese government can withstand the pressure and continue to develop relations with China.
