Foreword

This year's "harvest season" for American soybean farmers is more like a "disaster year" than in previous years. The warehouse is full of golden beans, but no buyer is willing to accept the goods. What makes people feel most uneasy is that China, the former number one customer, has almost returned to zero.

When watching the door of the world's second largest economy close, Washington became anxious and the White House called all the way to Beijing. But the problem is, this phone call may have been late.

The embarrassment after losing "old customers": American soybeans cannot be sold, not because they are not good enough

U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that in the fall of 2025, U.S. soybeans ushered in the largest bumper harvest in the past decade. Unfortunately, behind this "harvest" is the cold reality of market failure. The beans were collected, but the boat could not drive out. Without orders and customers, the warehouse of the bean farmers has become a place where "troubles" are piled up.

The most critical link is broken: China will not buy it anymore. This "super customer" who once bought more than half of the soybeans in the United States every year has almost negligible orders this year. In the past, China took millions of tons of operations, but now it doesn’t even have the meaning of “intention”, which makes the American agricultural community anxious like an ant on the pot.

The Wall Street Journal quoted data from the Agricultural Association as saying that the US soybean prices fell 40% from their three-year highs, and many soybean farmers have begun to reduce seeds and even consider withdrawing from farm operations.

This is not just a problem of "can't sell", it is a problem of the entire agricultural economic chain is "disconnected". Equipment vendors cannot find customers, processing plants cannot receive goods, and rural credit institutions are becoming increasingly nervous. A problem occurs whenever a link occurs, the entire chain is raising an alarm.

But there was no response from China. In other words, the response has been written in the actions of the past few years - China has long since no longer wanted to put all its eggs in the United States.

China turns around, Brazil "up": Trade friction changes the whole game

Looking back, the loss of the Chinese market by US soybeans is not an accident, but an inevitable. The fuse was a trade war, but the consequences were much more serious than the tariff bill.

Since 2018, the Trump administration has imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, and China is not polite and has issued a counter-revolutionary list for US soybeans. The result is a "trade Cold War" that affected farmland. The original biggest advantage of American soybean farmers - prices and stable supply, was instantly pushed up by 20% by tariffs. Chinese buyers are naturally unwilling to pay for the "political costs".

China is not waiting to die. On the other hand, China's strategy is to "bloom multiple points" + "advance layout": on the one hand, strengthen cooperation in South America, especially Brazil, the soybean power; on the other hand, expand procurement from Argentina, Russia and other countries to form a diversified supply chain.

According to the Financial Times, Brazilian soybeans go to Chinese ports ten days faster than the United States, and Brazilian soybeans are also cheaper, about $383 per ton. More importantly, Chinese companies have also directly invested in Brazil's railways, ports and other infrastructure, and changed from "buyer" to "shareholder", which further reduced logistics costs.

This is not only a problem of "affordable" but also a problem of "stable purchase". China also ensures food security from all dimensions by establishing strategic reserves, implementing local currency settlement, and even making a fuss about trade technical standards. It can be said that while the United States was still looking for buyers for soybeans, China was already building a world that did not require American soybeans.

Subsidies cannot save the market, and orders cannot be returned by phone

Faced with the loss of China, a "super customer", the US government is not without action. In Trump's policy toolbox, the most common one is "subsidies".

Since 2018, the U.S. government has issued more than $28 billion in subsidies to the agricultural sector. But the problem is also obvious: Subsidies can only "relief" and cannot save the "market". The farmers said "Thank you to the government", but they understood in their hearts: "What we want is customers, not checks."

A representative from the American Agricultural Federation told the New York Times: "The lack of Chinese market cannot be filled in subsidies." This is not that any soybean farmer did not grow well, but that there was a problem with the entire export system. What's worse is that With the overall rise in fertilizers, seeds, fuels and loan interest rates, soybean farmers' living space is being squeezed a little bit, and there is no chance to "gasp".

And those "phone calls to China" are more symbolic. The head of the American Agricultural Products Export Association said at a public meeting that the US has tried many times to resume communication on soybean exports to China, but has not made substantial progress. For China, this is not a question of "whether to answer the phone or not", but a question of "whether this phone call is meaningful".

Even if China-US trade relations temporarily ease, China may not return to the past "relying on American beans to make a living" model. Diverable supply is safer, more bargaining chips, and more in line with the collective food security strategy. If the United States wants to go back to the past, it may be necessary to rely on not just telephone calls, but to rethink the entire agricultural policy.

Conclusion

Soybeans are not isolated incidents, they are a microcosm of the reconstruction of Sino-US trade relations. In this game without gunpowder, China has gradually gained the initiative through its steady strategic layout. American soybean farmers have become the most direct victims of policy conflicts.

Restructuring of global supply chains is happening, and once the market share is lost, it will be difficult to get it back. If American agriculture wants to get out of the predicament, it must face a reality: subsidies and telephone calls cannot solve structural problems.

Today is soybeans, tomorrow may be another product. The future of economic and trade is no longer just about who has planted more, but about who has early layout, stable structure and clear strategy. The United States called China, but China had already connected to the future elsewhere.

References

Trump is in a hurry! During the US soybean harvest season, China will not order a single order. The chairman of the association said that if this continues, all bean farmers will go bankrupt!

Sina Finance