In recent years, the world has changed and regional conflicts have occurred frequently, especially the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which not only reshapes the geopolitical order, but also profoundly affects the direction of global arms trade.

Even so, the United States is still firmly in the top spot, accounting for 43% of the total global arms exports in the past five years. However, Russia, which once dominated the global arms market, has seen its export share shrink significantly, leaving only 7.8%.

What role does China, which also has a strong military-industry system, play in the global weapons market? What is the share of weapons exports in the past five years?

U.S. arms export

The United States continues to firmly occupy the top global arms exporters in the past five years, with its share of up to 43%. How exaggerated is this number? It is almost equal to the sum of exports from the latter eight countries.

Its customers are spread across 107 countries, and Europe is still the largest buyer of American equipment. Especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries have paid for more national defense efforts, causing the United States' exports to Europe to soar 233% in five years. Ukraine has become a gold medal customer, eating 9.3% of the total U.S. exports alone.

The Middle East follows closely, and although the proportion has dropped slightly from 49% to 33%, old customers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait still place orders steadily. Saudi Arabia accounts for 12% of the US arms exports, and the loyalty of this customer is nothing to say.

The Asia-Pacific region has grown steadily, with Japan, Australia and South Korea jointly contributing more than 20%. The United States has taken the opportunity to consolidate regional alliances and strengthen military cooperation, which can be said to have won multiple goals in one fell swoop.

The United States not only sells equipment, but also sells a "sense of security". Long-range missiles and advanced fighter jets have become popular goods, accounting for nearly half of the global export of such weapons. To put it bluntly, the United States can continue to do a big weapon business, not only because of its products, but also rely on its strong political alliance, its right to exaggerate threats, and the convenience of the US dollar trading system, making it difficult for many countries to not use American goods.

Especially high-end equipment like F-35 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems, others will not be able to create it for a while. The United States sells weapons on the surface, but actually exports influence. The more allies rely on US-made equipment, the more stable Washington's voice in international affairs.

The United States is also very good at turning crises into business opportunities. As soon as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, Europe's sense of security plummeted. The United States took the opportunity to increase marketing, not only selling itself, but also driving the entire NATO country to renew its military equipment.

The US military-industrial complex may be the invisible driving force of its foreign policy. Orders are continuous and profits are getting higher and higher. The more turbulent the international situation is, the more prosperous the US weapon orders will be.

So, Russia, which has always been regarded as a strategic opponent by the United States, has been in the past few years?

Russian weapons export

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's military industry suffered a significant blow. The country's military gave priority to consumption of production capacity. Western sanctions have made payments and technical cooperation difficult, resulting in a significant reduction in foreign trade orders. In the past five years, Russia's share of global arms exports has only 7.8%, from the original second in the world to the third, overtaken by France.

Compared with five years ago, Russia's arms exports have shrunk significantly by nearly two-thirds, and the number of customers has also decreased from 31 countries to 12 countries.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a direct factor leading to the decline in export capacity. Russia prioritizes a large amount of military resources and productivity to meet the combat needs of its own military. The continued high-intensity war of attrition has also seriously squeezed out the production capacity of its defense industry, making it difficult for Russia to take into account both domestic demand and international orders.

At the same time, many Western countries have imposed severe and ongoing economic sanctions and export controls on Russia, limiting Russia's ability to obtain key components and technologies while excluding them from the international financial payment system, causing many potential buyers to turn to other suppliers due to concerns about sub-sanctions or transaction difficulties.

In addition, Russia's position in some traditional markets has also loosened. As its long-term largest customer, India has also gradually expanded its source of weapons in recent years, and is increasingly purchasing equipment from France, Israel and the United States.

This is on the one hand because India promotes defense autonomy and reduces foreign dependence, and on the other hand, it is also affected by Western diplomatic pressure and unstable Russia's delivery capacity.

But Russia has not reached a slump. It is still the largest arms supplier in Africa, with a market share of 21%, slightly higher than the United States' 16%. Although India is gradually looking westward, it is still an important buyer of Russian-made equipment, but the procurement ratio has declined.

Judging from the actual performance of the Ukrainian battlefield, Russian tanks, missiles and air defense systems still show excellent durability and combat effectiveness, and to some extent have become a living signboard of Russian weapons.

Putin also mentioned in a military cooperation meeting in May that Russia still maintains its position as the top five weapons exporters in the world and holds orders worth tens of billions of dollars. Russia is now working hard to adjust its strategy, not only selling weapons, but also trying to bind traditional friendly countries and explore new markets with more flexible cooperation.

China's arms export

Compared with the United States and Russia, China's arms exports have remained stable in recent years, accounting for 5.9% of the global market. Although there is a clear gap with the United States, it is not easy to stabilize such a share in the context of Western joint blockade and limited market access. Currently, China's equipment is mainly exported to Asia and Africa, with Pakistan being the number one fan, accounting for 81% of Pakistan's total weapons imports.

China is taking a cost-effective, practical and reliable route without political conditions. Rainbow and Winglong series drones are particularly popular in the Middle East and Africa, and the price is only half or even lower in the same model in Europe and the United States. However, reconnaissance and strike should have many functions, and have become a new choice for national air defense for many countries.

China is not limited to simply selling products, but is focusing more and more on in-depth cooperation. For example, the Xiaolong fighter jet jointly developed with Pakistan has not only reliable performance, but also achieved partial localized production, helping Pakistan independently improve its national defense capabilities. This model is particularly suitable for small and medium-sized countries that are unwilling to be restrained by major powers and want to establish an independent national defense system.

Although Western media often smears the quality of China's weapons, the actual results and market repurchase rate are the best advertisements. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries have repurchased Chinese drones many times, while Nigeria and Egypt have successively introduced air defense systems and armored vehicles. Chinese weapons may not be able to enter the high-end markets of Europe and the United States for a while, but in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, they have gained a foothold by relying on their reputation.

In the next few years, As China continues to make breakthroughs in the fields of aviation engines, sixth-generation fighter jets, electromagnetic weapons, etc., export competitiveness is expected to be further improved, without competing for quantity, cost-effectiveness, and hegemony and cooperation, China's military industry may quietly rewrite the rules of global weapons trade.

Now, the global weapons market is becoming more diversified, emerging suppliers such as South Korea and Turkey are gradually rising, and countries such as India and Vietnam are actively promoting weapons localization. These changes may reshape the future trade pattern.

Weapons are never just weapons, but trust, influence and long-term cooperation. In the future, as regional conflicts heat up and national defense budgets are reorganized, this arms drama will only be more exciting. What buyers really watch is who has the most independent technology, the most reliable cooperation, and the strongest reputation.

Main source

Overseas think tanks disclose new trends in global military trade—Xinhuanet 2025-03-25

Global weapons import and export data in the past five years have been released. Expert analysis: US allies have become the main bearer of Washington's strategic cost—Global Times 2025-03-11

The US and Russia arms export orders have both set records! Experts: All are related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine—2024-02-06