Today, China and the United States have negotiated three rounds of tariffs.

China's confidence and courage to defend its own interests have made the United States feel a little overwhelmed.

So, the "outside the plate" came.

On September 10 local time, the Mexican government formally submitted a proposal for tariff reform, planning to impose tariffs on nearly 1,400 commodities originating from China and other countries without signing free trade agreements, with a maximum tax rate of 50%.

This move not only breaks Mexico's previous position of "not selecting borders between China and the United States", but also pushes China-Mexico economic and trade relations to a crossroads.

I still have other plans when I was forced to do so

According to this proposal, the wide scope and intensity of this tariff adjustment are rare, covering multiple core areas of people's livelihood and industry, including automobiles, textiles, plastics, steel, clothing, toys, shoes, furniture, paper, glass, etc.

As both important members of southern countries around the world, China-Mexico economic and trade cooperation should be a model of mutual benefit and win-win results. Moreover, China and Mexico's bilateral trade volume have exceeded the US$100 billion mark in 2022. China has become Mexico's second largest trading partner for many years. So, why did Mexico suddenly raise the tariff stick to China?

Although Mexican President Claudia Sinbaum repeatedly stated that he would never choose a side station between China and the United States, the wind changed after US Secretary of State Rubio made a special trip to Mexico on September 3 and held closed-door talks with Sinbaum.

Only one day later, Sinbaum made it clear at the daily press conference for the first time that Mexico is considering imposing tariffs on "countries that have not signed trade agreements" and named "China is one of them."

It is particularly noteworthy that the United States has been promoting the "near-sea outsourcing" strategy in recent years, encouraging companies to transfer production lines from Asia to neighboring countries such as Mexico.

In the first half of 2023, Mexico's exports to the United States exceeded China for the first time, becoming the United States' largest trading partner. This strategic positioning of "replacement of China" objectively requires Mexico to keep an economic distance from China.

Address the "poison pill clause" implanted by the United States in the North American Free Trade Agreement - restricting member states from signing free trade agreements with "non-market economies", Mexico's policy autonomy toward China has actually been greatly compressed.

Mexican geostrategic scholar Carlos Herrera seems to have revealed the secret in one sentence: "Mexico is facing the most complex geoeconomic choice in modern history: on the one hand, it needs to maintain important economic relations with China, and on the other hand, it cannot violate the strategic interests of northern neighbors. In this crack, any decision will be painful and imperfect."

Tariff "encircle"

After it was previously exposed to pressure the EU to impose 100% sub-tariff tariffs on China and India, the Financial Times quoted four sources as saying on September 11 that the United States will put pressure on G7 countries to significantly impose tariffs on China and India, which purchase Russian oil.

Interestingly, this seemingly serious tariff war was finally stuck on the embarrassing question of "who takes action first". The news revealed from the EU was patted and said with a slight silence that if the EU dared to impose taxes on China and India first, the US would never be vague and would follow immediately. But the EU is not stupid, and she made it clear - if the United States does not act with us, we will definitely not do this alone.

Suddenly I thought of four words, which are fierce and weak on the inside.

After all, this tariff game is becoming more and more like a game of "watch who blinks first", but at present, no one wants to take that dangerous move first, whether it is the United States or the European Union.

But there are still people who are willing to be the "leading bird" for various reasons.

Advice with kind words, think twice before acting

Although the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the words of the move in a tactful and polite manner, it also made it clear - firmly opposes the establishment of restrictions on China under various names under the coercion of others and the damage to China's legitimate rights and interests.

If you are kind to say the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then the response of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China is much more blunt: any unilateral tax increase move by Mexican, even within the framework of the World Trade Rules, will be considered as appeasement and compromise against unilateral bullying.

Once the relevant measures are implemented, it will not only harm the interests of relevant trading partners, including China, but will also seriously affect the certainty of the business environment in Mexico and reduce the confidence of enterprises in investment in Mexico. China and Mexico are important economic and trade partners. China does not want to see the impact of the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides. It is hoped that Mexico will be cautious and think twice before acting.

I heard it, Mexico should be very cautious and think twice before doing it! Anyway, I have persuaded what I should persuade and what I should say. It depends on how Mexico does it. One thing is that China is definitely not a soft persimmon that is easy to squeeze!

Editor: Qin Yangke