According to Fortune magazine on the 9th, Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, issued another warning in an interview recently that American agriculture is facing a crisis. Lagran said that US soybeans ushered in a harvest season, but China, which has always been the largest buyer, has not placed any orders, and soybean farmers are facing "extremely severe".
Lagran said that the Chinese market (sales volume) accounts for about 25% of the total U.S. soybean production, which means that under normal circumstances, 8% to 9% of U.S. soybeans should be registered for sale to China, and now it is zero. This is worrying.
For American soybean farmers, seeing the soybeans they have worked hard to grow, they suddenly said that no one had bought them and they were going to be backlogged in the warehouse, which really caused a mental breakdown.
You must know that these soybeans are the lives of American soybean farmers. If soybeans are planted and cannot be sold, it means that all the labor in this soybean season is wasted, and huge losses will occur, and even unable to survive.
More importantly, American residents are not like Chinese residents. They like to save money on weekdays, and once natural disasters occur, they can still survive the difficulties through savings. Americans like to eat and spend all of them, and even borrow money to live. If soybeans cannot be sold in the season, it will not only have a serious impact and impact on life, but will also have a dual impact on soybean production in the next season.
Little do people know that American farmers are important supporters of Trump's presidential election. Without the support of American farmers, Trump would definitely not be president.
The current American soybean farmers have affected soybean exports because of their elected president, fighting tariff wars, trade wars, and imposing export controls on China. How come they are not worried?
A fact that American soybean farmers must face is that the US exports to China to zero is not because China suspends imports. The warehouses of Chinese operators are empty, waiting for the import of American soybeans, but there are substitutes. Brazil and other countries in South America, soybeans are constantly entering China. The warehouses of Chinese operators are full. If you really pass this village, you will not have this store.
It is worth noting that just a month ago, facing the delay in signing a purchase agreement with American soybean farmers and not registering any, the US soybean farmers complained that US President Trump once called on China. According to Reuters, on August 10, local time, Trump posted on social media, calling on China to "quadruple (US) soybean orders as soon as possible", and he also promised to provide "fast services" to China.
On the same day, Trump also signed an executive order to extend the suspension of tariffs on China for another 90 days. Affected by this, soybean prices on the Chicago Futures Exchange soared to their highest point in two weeks on the 11th.
The problem is that China is not Canada, Australia, nor the EU, Japan, or South Korea. Under the order of the US President, he must be obedient and import US soybeans immediately.
More than a month has passed, and the registration for the US to export Chinese soybeans is still zero. If Trump is not panicked, he may not even believe it himself.
The problem is that if you are really panic, be honest and take the initiative to negotiate with China on trade issues. Don’t do any more harm to the improvement of Sino-US relations, and don’t make any comments that are not conducive to the improvement of Sino-US relations.
Trump is different. He is obviously very panicked and still has to act arrogantly and condescendingly in his words and deeds. In the past month, he has made a series of acts that harm China's interests and made a series of negative remarks. Of course, this is unacceptable to China. It is not only unacceptable, but also must fight back with actions. That is what you call you, I will do mine, soybean farmers will put soybeans in a bag.
China has imported American soybeans since 1995, and usually starts booking after the fall harvest at the beginning of the year. According to Karen Braun, chief market analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, a US broker focused on agricultural risk management, China has purchased US soybeans for the first time since 2005, the week of August 11. This is also the reason why Trump called out to China on August 10.
The current situation is that by September 11, China still had not imported a single soybean from the United States. This is an anxiety in American soybean farmers.
According to the news released by both China and the United States, the third round of Sino-US negotiations will be held in Spain from September 14 to 17, and I believe soybeans will definitely become a topic of discussion between the two sides.
However, in the face of many contradictions and differences, especially the United States still frantically adopts unilateral bullying, unilateral tariffs and abuses of export control measures, it is obviously impossible to negotiate the issue of soybean exports to China, but must be resolved in a package. If the US refuses to make concessions and commitments in other aspects, it is easy to imagine how difficult it is to export US soybeans to China. If China's procurement quota this year is used up, even if the two sides agree, there will be little room for the United States to import soybeans, and China will not be able to spend money to buy a batch of unused soybeans in the warehouse.
So, it is inevitable that Trump is panicked. According to Trump's behavior, there are still many things that make him panic. Can his already aging body still bear it?
