The drone incident continues to ferment, and the large-scale standoff has caused concerns, and France sends "Rafale" fighter jets to Poland
On the 11th local time, French President Macron announced the dispatch of three Rafale fighter jets to jointly "defend" Polish airspace with NATO allies. Many NATO countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands have also expressed their plans to send fighter jets, artillery and air defense systems to Poland. The day before, several drones entered Polish airspace, and Poland shot down some drones. Poland and NATO claimed that the drone was from Russia and accordingly launched article 4 of the North Atlantic Convention for emergency consultations. Russia denied that the drone came from Russia, claiming that the matter once again reflected NATO's deliberate anti-Russia stance, accusing NATO of trying to obstruct the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations. The drone incident in Polish airspace has sparked concerns about spillovers in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the West. Some media reported that the drone incident coincided with the eve of a large-scale "Western-2025" military exercise held by Russia and Belarus. It is reported that Poland announced on the 11th that it would deploy 40,000 soldiers to the border with Russia and Belarus in the east. In addition, tens of thousands of soldiers from Poland and other NATO countries also held the "Steel Defender-25" exercise. The two exercises are called "one of the largest military confrontations between NATO and Russia since the Cold War." Singapore Asia News said that whether intentionally or unintentionally, the drone incident is a serious escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "The European continent is currently in the period closest to the period when Russia and the West have had a large-scale military confrontation since the end of World War II."
Polish Defense Minister: 5 countries have provided support
On the evening of September 11 local time, French President Macron announced through a social platform that France will dispatch three Rafale fighter jets to "join our NATO allies to contribute to the defense of Polish airspace and the eastern wing of Europe." Macron said he had made a commitment to Polish Prime Minister Tusk to help defend Polish airspace and consulted with NATO Secretary-General Rutte and British Prime Minister Stamer, who is also involved in defense. He also said: "The security of the continent is our priority. We will not succumb to the increasing intimidation of Russia."
According to the BBC on the 12th, NATO allies have been on high alert after Poland claimed that Russian drones "invaded" its airspace with an unprecedented invasion. In addition to France, several other NATO member states plan to send troops, artillery and air defense systems to defend Poland and the eastern flank of Europe. The Netherlands and the Czech Republic said they would send defensive forces to Poland. British Defense Secretary Healy announced that London is looking at options for more action. The German government announced on the 11th that German military aircraft will expand the air patrol and alert range in Polish airspace within the framework of NATO's joint defense, and at the same time increase the aircraft responsible for air surveillance from two to four. Previously, the Luftwaffe had provided air alerts to the three Baltic countries and some airspace in Poland. Lithuania also announced that it would take over the forces of a German brigade.
AFP said that Polish Defense Minister Kamesh listed the support provided by NATO allies to Poland in his speech to parliament on the 11th. He said that the Netherlands will provide two complete "Patriot" air defense systems and artillery, and send 300 soldiers; the Czech Republic will send 3 helicopters and 100 soldiers; France and the United Kingdom will deploy "Rawn" and "Typhoon" fighters in Poland; Sweden will send fighters to Poland and provide air defense systems. Kamesh said: "The empty words and empty gestures of unity have been heard in Poland's history. However, today we have received specific support."
Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Tomchik announced on the 11th that due to the joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus, Poland will deploy about 40,000 soldiers in the border area with Belarus in the near future. Previously, Poland said that due to the Russian-Belarus military exercise, Poland completely closed its border with Belarus from 0:00 on the 12th. Tomchik said: "The 'Western-2025' military exercise held by Russia and Belarus is an offensive exercise, and the Polish army is ready for this." He added, "Poland has been preparing for the 'Western-2025' exercise for several months. More than 30,000 soldiers from its own and other NATO countries will participate in the joint exercise to provide an appropriate response to the Russian-Belarus military exercise." The NATO military exercise Tomchik refers to the "Steel Defender-25" military exercise, with more than 30,000 soldiers from Poland and other NATO countries and 600 sets of equipment participating.
France Liberation Daily said that the military exercise between Poland and NATO is part of the large-scale defense preparations in NATO's eastern wing, and was carried out at the same time as the Russian-Belarus "Western-2025" exercise, forming a confrontation. The report quoted Russian military analyst Vasily Kashin as saying that Russia and NATO organized competitive military exercises at the same time will continue, "just like during the Cold War."
What does NATO Article 4 mean
According to AFP, Poland immediately requested NATO to initiate Article 4 of the North Atlantic Convention after the drone incident. NATO countries held emergency consultations on the 11th.
"What does it mean to trigger Article 4 of NATO?" CNN said on the 11th that Article 4 of the North Atlantic Convention stipulates that when any party believes that its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened, the parties should consult together. NATO said the joint consultation process was crucial because all NATO decisions were based on consensus, and the discussions triggered by Article 4 “could lead to some form of joint decision or action by NATO.” According to reports, in recent years, NATO countries have launched Article 4 many times around the Ukrainian crisis. In 2014, Poland proposed to NATO to initiate Article 4 due to the Crimean crisis. In February 2022, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Czech Republic, Estonia and other countries requested NATO to launch Article 4.
Many analyses are concerned whether the escalation will further trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Convention, namely the commitment of member states to collective defense. However, the Associated Press said that invoking Article 4 regulations will not automatically trigger Article 5. Article 5 stipulates that NATO allies promise that an attack on one member of NATO will constitute an attack on all member states. According to reports, NATO's only trigger for Article 5 was after the 2001 US "9/11" terrorist attack.
Australian Dialogue magazine said that Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Convention, rather than triggering Article 5, in order to highlight the extent of the threat from Russia to all NATO members and hope to obtain clear support from allies to take more active responses. Even if NATO Article 5 is triggered, it does not necessarily lead to all NATO member states agreeing to take unified military action. The wording of the treaty is flexible enough that countries can respond more subtlely, including diplomatic and economic measures. In fact, NATO member states are still sovereign states and can decide independently whether to take military action.
The US, Russia and Europe have different attitudes
Regarding Poland and NATO's accusation of the drone from Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova said on the 11th that "Warsaw's speculation is obviously untenable." "Although this is the case, in order to fully clarify the truth of the incident to all parties committed to preventing further escalation of the situation, the Russian Ministry of Defense is ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense on this matter, and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also willing to join the work." The Russian Ministry of Defense also previously stated that the Russian military strike was only aimed at Ukrainian military-industrial facilities. "The range of drones used by the Russian army does not exceed 700 kilometers, which ruled out the possibility of deliberately flying into the depth of Polish territory."
Russian satellite news network said that this is not the first time Poland accused Moscow of "violating" its airspace without evidence. At the end of 2022, an explosion occurred on the eastern border of Poland and caused casualties, with Poland claiming that the explosion was caused by Russian missile attacks. However, the photos at the scene of the accident show the missile wreckage of the Ukrainian anti-missile system. Later, then-Polish President Duda had to admit that it was "very likely" that Ukraine's air defense missiles failed to intercept Russian missiles and entered Poland and caused an explosion.
In response to European allies' fierce accusations against Russia, US President Trump said on the 11th that the so-called Russian drone entry into Polish airspace may be a "miss". He said, "I'm not happy with everything about the whole incident, but hope this will end." The Associated Press said that Trump's statements are in a strong contrast with European leaders' stance on Russia's severe condemnation.
To Trump's words, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky responded: "No, that's not a mistake." Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media on the 11th that the Russian drone's "invasion" of Polish airspace through Ukraine and Belarusian airspace was "deliberate and not accidental." He called on European allies to take strong measures.
"Drone bombing over Poland is a test for NATO and the United States." The New York Times said on the 11th that two senior European officials said the drone incident was also a warning from Russia to European countries that were considering sending troops to Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia's move may be an attempt to test the U.S. response as Trump reduces military aid to Ukraine. Former Polish Foreign Intelligence Director Crouchk believes that "Moscow is trying to test Washington through this move because they know that the key decision on European security will eventually be taken by the United States." According to reports, there is uncertainty about what Trump's commitment to security in Ukraine, NATO and Europe actually means.
"Has NATO passed the test?" Singapore Asia News said on the 12th that NATO's reaction generally did not give people much confidence. People have raised serious questions about NATO's degree of preparation: fighter jets were taken off to the air and shot down drones, but in fact, not all 19 drones were shot down. If NATO countries still struggle to cope with such a small number of invasions, one might wonder, how can they cope with attacks involving hundreds of drones and missiles? What disappoints Europe most is that US President Trump has been evasive and unwilling to put any substantial pressure on Russia.
Source: Global Network
