In September, when global economic fluctuations and geopolitical changes, a latest update on US-India trade and military purchases once again ignited the focus of international public opinion. According to the latest global trade report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in September, the total global trade volume in the second quarter of 2025 fell by 3.2% year-on-year, among which the US-India trade frictions have become one of the key variables affecting trade flows in the Asia-Pacific region. The interaction between the United States and India in the fields of trade, military purchases and geosecurity is at a critical juncture.
Military purchase negotiations have made another wave, and US-India relations have ushered in a new turning point?
In September, according to authoritative media reports such as Reuters and Bloomberg, a joint delegation of the US Department of Defense and Boeing will set off for New Delhi next week to restart the procurement negotiations for the "Sea God" P-8I reconnaissance aircraft that have been delayed in 2019 to date. The total amount of this military purchase case is about US$4 billion. If it is successfully finalized, it will become one of the largest defense cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years.
Experts familiar with India-US defense interaction generally believe that the US's initiative to come to the door reflects the United States' attempt to ease the tense atmosphere of trade and diplomacy in recent years by deepening military cooperation. Data shows that since India first introduced the P-8I in 2009, it has purchased a total of 12 of this type of aircraft. The additional procurement involved in this negotiation will significantly enhance India's anti-submarine and reconnaissance capabilities in the Indian Ocean and surrounding waters.
According to the latest disclosure of the Indian Ministry of Defense, India has a realistic need to improve maritime patrol and intelligence capabilities. As one of the world's busiest international waterways, the security situation has become more complicated in recent years. India hopes to consolidate its regional dominance with the help of high-end US-made equipment.
Trade friction is difficult to resolve, tariff barriers become the focus
Recalling the evolution of the US-India trade dispute, since 2025, the two sides have intensified differences in the fields of agricultural product market access, digital service tax, industrial product tariffs, etc. According to the latest statistics from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) in September, India is the ninth largest trading partner of the United States, with bilateral trade in goods reaching nearly US$145 billion in 2024, but the United States has long expressed dissatisfaction with the trade deficit and market access barriers.
In August, the United States raised tariff measures on some Indian goods to 50%, a record high. The Indian government firmly safeguards its own agricultural interests and clearly refuses to make concessions on agricultural and animal husbandry import standards. This tariff war not only had a chain impact on the manufacturing and agricultural product exports of the two countries, but also caused the outside world to worry about the stability of the global supply chain.
According to the dispute settlement report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in September 2025, the number of disputes between trade barriers between the United States and India has reached a record high in the past decade, and the two sides have pending lawsuits in the fields of mutual recognition of agricultural products, pharmaceutical patents, digital services, etc. Many international economic think tanks believe that if the United States and India cannot find compromise points in the short term, the trade environment of southern countries around the world may also be affected.
High-level interactions are dense, mitigating signal release
Just as the deadlock between the US-India trade and military purchases continues, on September 9, the White House and the Indian Prime Minister's Office issued a message almost simultaneously, confirming that the leaders of the two countries will have a phone call in the next few weeks to discuss the latest progress in bilateral trade and security cooperation. The US President publicly stated on social platforms that "I look forward to having candid exchanges with the Indian Prime Minister to promote the resolution of trade barriers between the two sides and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results." This statement was generally interpreted by the outside world as a signal that the US side took the initiative to ease tensions.
Prime Minister Modi responded on social platform X, emphasizing that the United States and India are "natural strategic partners" and said that "the team is working hard to promote tangible progress in trade negotiations." A spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry pointed out that India is currently in an important stage of accelerating economic transformation and expanding international cooperation, and strategic mutual trust with the United States is crucial to maintaining regional stability.
It is worth noting that the intensive interaction between the two high-level leaders has sent positive signals, but substantial breakthroughs still require multiple obstacles to be overcome. The US is not only concerned with the commodity trade deficit, but also with the interests in emerging fields such as the digital economy and intellectual property protection. India adheres to its own agricultural security and digital sovereignty, and the complexity of the game between the two sides is far beyond traditional trade negotiations.
The US-India Choice under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued to ferment in 2025, and the global energy market and security pattern underwent profound changes. The United States continues to impose multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia and actively wins over allies to jointly increase economic pressure on Russia. In early September, according to the official website of the European Council, the US president urged the EU to simultaneously raise tariffs on India and China during his meeting with EU leaders, on the grounds that the two countries continued to expand Russian oil imports, affecting the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.
This move further complicates the U.S.-India trade dispute. As the world's third largest crude oil importer, India has become one of the main destinations for Russian oil exports in recent years. Indian Foreign Minister publicly stated in mid-September that India will flexibly adjust its import structure based on its own energy security interests, while also committed to promoting diversified diplomatic and economic partnerships.
China also made a statement on the Russian-Ukrainian issue. On September 10, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian reiterated at a regular press conference that China is not the creator of the Ukrainian crisis, nor is it the party involved, and firmly opposes any economic coercion against China. This statement adds more variables to the Asia-Pacific economic landscape.
Under this background, the cooperation needs between the United States and India in the strategic field have been further amplified. The United States hopes to strengthen arms sales and defense dialogues, deepen its military influence on India and reduce Russia's share in the South Asian market. India uses multilateral diplomacy to strengthen its bargaining power and strive for the greatest autonomy.
Who will give in first the bargaining chips between arms and trade?
About the procurement of the "Sea God" reconnaissance aircraft, both the United States and India hope to open a breakthrough for the trade deadlock through military cooperation. A report released by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) in September showed that US arms sales to India have declined for three consecutive years, and India is accelerating its defense independence and diversified procurement strategy. The United States is trying to use high-end weapons exports as a starting point to consolidate its influence in South Asia, thereby occupying a more favorable position in trade negotiations.
International public opinion in India pays great attention to this. Many mainstream media reported that the Indian government has held multiple rounds of consultations on expanding military cooperation with the United States, but it still has a firm position on issues such as market access for agricultural products and tariff reciprocity. Experts generally believe that as one of the world's largest democracies, India attaches great importance to the public opinion basis in policy making, and any concessions that touch the interests of farmers will face huge political pressure.
The United States hopes to provide technical support to India with advanced weapons exports, and at the same time drives employment in local manufacturing through military purchase contracts. According to the latest data from the US Department of Commerce in 2025, the total amount of arms trade in the US and India fell by 12% year-on-year in the past three years, and the United States urgently needs to boost the related industrial chain through new orders.
Where is the direction of the US-India interaction under the complex pattern?
In September, U.S.-India relations were standing at a new crossroads. There are both trade barriers, tariff games, and multiple powers such as defense cooperation and geopolitical security. The two countries have prominent differences in the fields of digital economy, energy security, agricultural markets, etc., but they also show their willingness to restart cooperation.
Many international think tanks believe that if substantial progress is made in the short term, if the US-India military purchase negotiations can make substantial progress, it will create a positive atmosphere for high-level dialogue and is expected to promote breakthroughs in some trade issues. However, on structural issues, the positions and demands of both sides are still difficult to reconcile, and future cooperation requires greater political wisdom and strategic patience.
The global economic and security environment is turbulent. How the United States and India seek win-win results in the new round of competition and cooperation between major powers is worthy of continuous attention. The progress of the negotiations between the US delegation's visit to India next week will undoubtedly become an important weather vane for observing the geopolitical pattern of the Asia-Pacific.
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