2025-2030 is the five years of golden liquor. In these five years, the size of China's liquor market is expected to achieve an order of magnitude and officially rise to a trillion-dollar scale. According to conservative estimates, if the market performance is not ideal, the liquor market size can still exceed 1.2 trillion by 2030. If you encounter better opportunities in the times, such as the large-scale recovery of the market environment, the liquor market size is likely to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, leaving huge room for imagination for liquor.
In 2024, the size of the liquor market has reached 796.384 billion yuan. It seems that it is just a last kick, but it is often the last kick, and it may take more effort to reach it. The loss of alcohol ban, high inventory, and high-end wine value are every factor that makes liquor reach a trillion-dollar scale. From 2025 to 2030, the liquor industry still has a tough battle to fight.
Who is the pillar of supporting the trillion-dollar white wine?
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. The scale of liquor trillion yuan is also composed of some small parts. These liquor sub-track tracks either occupy the consumer advantage or the category advantage. With their own unique value, they push the vitality of the liquor industry forward, strive for market share, and contribute to the liquor trillion yuan blueprint.
The first is vintage wine. According to industry data, the vintage wine market size is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan in 2025, and it is expected to reach 150-200 billion yuan from the next five years to 2030, contributing considerable share and considerable profits.
From the perspective of share profit, vintage wine is synonymous with high-end liquor, and often represents higher profits. High profits bring sufficient working capital, which is conducive to the healthy operation of wine companies and reserves more funds for new product research and development.
From the impact on the industry, vintage wine brings more positive impacts. Vintage wine is synonymous with high quality and high flavor. The rise of vintage wine is a manifestation of good money driving out bad money. As a benchmark for the quality of liquor, it will lead the entire industry to develop towards high quality and high flavor.
From the certification of vintage wine, vintage wine is the carrier and leader of industry standards, representing the rigor of the industry. Through the certification of authoritative institutions such as China Wine Industry Association and Fangyuan Organization, the vintage wine industry has gradually moved from frequent chaos to standard leadership, representing the industry's determination to develop high-quality and formal liquor. In this process, it has also driven the common prosperity of related industries.
As industry experts say, the future of liquor will be the world of vintage wine, and vintage wine is leveraging its era value as an important part of the trillion-dollar blueprint of liquor.
The second is Volkswagen Liquor. According to the latest industry report, liquors below 300 yuan account for about 43% of the current liquor market of 760 billion yuan, with a market size of about 330 billion yuan. This price band covers the mid-range market of 100-300 yuan and light bottle wines below 100 yuan, and is one of the fastest growing segments in recent years. In the future, as the trend of rationalization and youthful consumption continues, the liquor market under 300 yuan is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of about 10% and continue to expand its market share.
Volkswagen liquor has always been the foundation of the liquor industry, running through all scenarios such as daily drinking, gifts, dinners, and banquets. Only some high-end banquets and business banquets will not be used. It has the highest popularity rate, the widest acceptance, and the widest mass base. It is also a value belt for major famous liquor brands to gather together.
The characteristics of Volkswagen liquor are that its profits are not high but its volume is very good. With the support of major famous liquor brands, it is endorsed by brand endorsement, quality endorsement, and cost-effective endorsement, and it is a great ship for the development of liquor.
The third is low-valent and high-flavored liquor. According to existing data, China's low-alcohol and high-flavor liquor market will reach 120 billion yuan in 2030, with great prospects. Since 2024, a collective "degree reduction" trend in the liquor industry has been experiencing a collective "degree reduction" trend. New products of 38 degrees, 28 degrees and 29 degrees have been launched one after another, constantly breaking through the bottom line of degree. At the same time, we do not forget to polish the flavor. For example, 29 Degree Wuliangye takes taste as one of its core competitiveness. 29 Degree Wuliangye has achieved a leap breakthrough in "reducing degree but not reducing quality" through technical iteration, inheriting Wuliangye's classic base of "multiple grain and strong fragrance", retaining the mellow wine body and harmonious aroma (interweaving grain fragrance and cellar fragrance), and adjusting the proportion of aroma components, the taste is more in line with "soft and smooth". It can be said that it not only retains the classic style of Wuliangye, but also caters to the drinking needs of contemporary young people.
Why low-alcohol high-flavor liquor has great potential? It needs to be seen from the three core advantages: first, the taste is soft, which is easy to accept for young drinkers and female drinkers. In terms of slightly drunkenness, the choice is no longer limited to wine or fruit wine, and traditional liquor can also be tried; second, the health advantage is lower wine, and the comfort after drinking is higher, suitable for fast-paced office workers, and no longer give up the opportunity to get together because they are worried about affecting their work the next day; third, the price acceptance, in terms of price, the price of low-alcohol high-flavor liquor is often lower than the high-alcohol high-flavor liquor of the same series, with less economic pressure, and consumers are more willing to pay their wallets.
The trend of low-alcohol and high-flavor liquor is no longer irresistible. In the future, it will surely be one of the pillars of the liquor industry share.
2030 is also a critical stage of economic recovery. Driven by opportunities, the future of the liquor industry will inevitably be full of imagination.
(Source: Everyone’s Wine Review)
