Incremental volumes are over, stocks are fighting, what is the way out for the hot pot boss?

The per capita consumer price of the hot pot track continued to decline in 2025, reaching the 70+ yuan range. The scale of the track is still expanding, but corporate profits are getting thinner and thinner, and the industry is in a dilemma of "high scale and low profit".

The incremental era has come to an end, and the existing battle has begun. How can hot pot brands survive in the new cycle of deep adjustments, or even live well?

650 billion hot pot track, "Ice and Fire"

"China Catering Development Report 2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") shows that the hot pot market size exceeded 600 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 617.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%, slightly higher than the catering market. In 2025, it is expected to reach the 650 billion level.

As of May this year, the number of hot pot stores nationwide exceeded 490,000, with a chain rate of 28%, higher than the overall level of 23% of the catering industry. Among them, the leading brand Guoquan Food Hui has entered the "Wandian Club" and has also become a microcosm of the scale expansion of the track.

△Picture source: Tuchuang Creative

These data can prove that the "hot" of the hot pot track is still expanding, and the concentration of leading brands is increasing.

But the other side of "fire" is the "ice" that is difficult to ignore.

The most direct change comes from consumers, who have become more rational. "China Catering Development Report 2025" shows that per capita consumption of hot pot fell from 86.7 yuan in 2022 to 77.1 yuan in 2025, a four-year decline of 11%.

Adjustment on the enterprise side can better illustrate the problem. In the first half of 2025, the number of new hot pot companies registered was only 22,000, which is a cliff-like reduction compared with the grand occasion of 50,000 to 100,000 yuan each year from 2021 to 2024.

The market is moving from "wild growth" to "rational adjustment". Behind the expansion of the track scale is the reality that corporate profits are getting thinner and more difficult to operate.

Even mid-to-high-end brands such as Banu and Zhuo have to put down their figure and join the "price war". Public information shows that the average per capita of Banu has dropped from 148 yuan to 138 yuan, and the cumulative average customer price of Baoshang has dropped by 27 yuan in three years. The decline in per capita consumption is not only the result of brands' active price reduction, but also reflects the trend of consumers being more cautious in ordering.

The hot pot industry is deeply trapped in an unavoidable "ice and fire paradox".

Three ways to break the deadlock: cost-effectiveness, sub-tracks, and regional cultivation

In the face of industry difficulties, some brands have actively explored and taken a differentiation path. They respond to the most difficult business problems at the moment with practical actions, providing more practitioners with some new ideas and reference samples.

△Picture source: Tuchuang Creative

Price-performance ratio, not just cheap

When consumers hold their wallet tightly, "worth it" is more important than "cheap".

For example, Haidilao recently launched a sub-card "High High", which can achieve 100+SKU free food for 59.9 yuan, without invisible consumption;

When Xiong Meow comes, it relies on free desserts, unlimited duck blood tofu, free children's meals and other benefits to convert hidden value into cost-effectiveness perceived by consumers;

Neicheng fresh cut beef mountain wild hot pot presses the price of the dish to the range of 0.9-11.9 yuan, and the bottom of the pot starts at 6 yuan, covering the price-sensitive customer base with the ultimate cost-effectiveness. At the same time, it strengthens quality awareness through open-end fresh cut display and "no overnight" commitment.

Second segmentation track: reject everything, you can't be good at anything

Instead of pursuing becoming a "hexagon" warrior in the hot pot track, it is better to find your position in the market segment and achieve the ultimate.

For example, Xu Funiu, which was previously positioned as a "priced hot pot", further focused this year and proposed to be a "beef expert".

In terms of products, not only has the SKUs been streamlined to about 40, highlighting the richness of beef products, but also launched special packages such as "Shi Shi Beef Clay". After 7 sub-part beef offals are cleaned and cut in the central kitchen, they are sent to the store to press on site with a pressure cooker for more than 20 minutes to ensure the taste of the product.

In terms of supply chain, relying on its beef supply chain advantages of "direct procurement of overseas factories + cooperation of state-owned enterprises", the positioning of "high-quality beef porter" is integrated into brand communication and customer experience, and continues to provide trust and endorsement for the identity of "beef expert", and constantly strengthens the brand awareness of "eat cost-effective imported beef to find Xufu beef" to consumers.

This series of measures has achieved remarkable results. Hongju Big Data shows that its store size has increased by about 20 times in the past five years, and as of June 2025, it has exceeded 1,400, becoming the number one brand in hot pot track stores.

For example, the Benjie Residential Building Hotpot, which is positioned as a "city Chongqing hotpot in residential buildings", is refined in the location selection, and opens more than 80% of the stores into the community residential buildings, targeting the "non-core location of first-class business districts", so that you can not only enjoy the customer flow of the business district, but also reduce rent costs. The store is not big, usually between 80-150 square meters and no more than 15 tables, achieving a balance between cost and square footage.

Be a regional king: Deeply pursuing the local market, you can also make a fortune

For many brands, it is better to deepen their efforts in the region than to cast a nationwide net.

For example, Jijihong Hotpot, which has been deeply involved in the Jiangxi market, is located in the province, with more than 340 stores open, and there are more than 150 stores in Nanchang alone. "Cellular expansion" brings the intensive effect of procurement and distribution, with the cost of ingredients being reduced to 28%, and the labor cost being controlled at 18%;

Jenheji Fresh Beef Hotpot in Henan has focused on "original cut beef hotpot" for twelve years, insisting on 100% raw cut beef. After becoming popular in Xinxiang, Henan, it gradually expanded its stores to the sinking market in Henan and neighboring provinces.

As a representative of regional brands, Hubei Huoshui Pepper Hot Pot has been listed on the Dianping must-eat list for six consecutive years. Different from the traditional Sichuan-Chongqing red pot, it uses fresh vine pepper and vegetable oil to create a green pot bottom; at the same time, it deeply explores local ingredients in Hubei, such as Zhongxiangshi brand tofu, Shiyan Yunyang sweet potato flour, etc., and the brand always focuses on the Hubei market.

These regional brands live more calmly in the regional market by deeply understanding local consumption habits, optimizing supply chain efficiency, and innovating business models.

Subdivided to find differences, back-end pressure, sinking to grab the "dining table"

What are the definite trends on the track?

The breakthrough exploration of leading brands not only solves their own development problems, but also provides a sample worth referring to for the industry to break through dilemmas. From these successful practices, we have also seen several major development trends in the hot pot track.

△Picture source: Tuchuang Creative

First of all, the segmented track is still full of opportunities, and brands have more opportunities to make characteristics and differentiate.

For example, from last year's popularity to this year's mountain hotpot, it has driven the entire catering market to have a "mountain wind", "regional wind" and "healthy trend".

Positioned as a representative brand of Shanye Hotpot, such as Shanyan Shui. In April this year, 13 new stores were opened in a single month, with a total number of stores exceeding 80.

There are also other hot pot brands that learn from the mountains and wild elements to innovate and enrich their product lines. For example, Xu Funiu has made "Shanye Secret Realm Pot" one of its main product series this year, which has also led to a slight increase in customer unit prices, and upgraded the texture while maintaining the cost-effective background color.

△Xu Funiu "Mountain and Field Secret Pot"

The track is still evolving new gameplay and new strategies, such as the emergence of the "Shanye Tea Hotpot" subcategory. Suzhou's "Sujianshan・Shanye Tea Hotpot" attracts check-in with "Jasmine Bishu Spring Pot Bottom + Suzhou Garden Scene" and creates a cultural atmosphere with the Pingtan performance; Huangshan's "Tao Yuanming Mountain Wild Tea Hotpot" integrates Huangshan Maofeng into the spicy pot bottom, and uses bamboo woven lampshades and straw raincoats to create a jungle feeling.

Secondly, the supply chain is moving towards the forefront and becoming the core of brand competitiveness.

Jakusji and brands such as Haoyu and Peijie jointly build a "manufacture and sales alliance" to cooperate in the development of special products such as black gold black tiger shrimp slips and horseshoe shrimp slips, which not only streamline the links but also avoid homogeneity;

Jijihong cooperated with the origin to establish a vegetable base, with the cost of ingredients 20% lower than that of the market. She also introduced custom rice cakes in the intangible cultural heritage workshop to make product differentiation;

Xu Funiu also supports the full category of packages with 40 SKUs, and improves the reuse rate of ingredients with few and fine products and package combinations. At the same time, it has joined hands with SF Express, Wilmar and other companies to build 26 regional warehouses across the country to create a 2-hour cold chain circle, significantly reducing the costs of stocking, warehousing and logistics.

The improvement of supply chain efficiency also provides key support for brands to break through regional restrictions and open up a broader market - when the back-end costs are controllable and the quality is stable, the brands have the confidence to enter the sinking market that is more sensitive to prices.

The sinking market is still a certain growth place for hot pot brands.

As of May 2025, the proportion of hot pot stores in third-tier and below cities has reached 52.3%, covering more than 700 million people, and consumption potential continues to be released.

Hongju big data shows that nearly 80% of the 1,000+ stores of Weila Little Hotpot are located in the sinking market, and quickly seize the county by relying on high cost performance; even mid-to-high-end brands like Banu, their operating profit margins of sinking stores have reached 24.5%, higher than 20.7% in first-tier cities.

This also shows that the sinking market does not only recognize "low prices", but also the demand for quality consumption.

For a large number of hot pot brands that have been fully competitive in high-tier cities, deep cultivation and sinking can not only alleviate the huge internal competition pressure faced by brands in the first- and second-tier markets, but also open the growth ceiling in relatively blank low-tier cities and even county and township markets through effective experience reuse and amplify brand potential.

Conclusion

In the stock battle, there is no universal "universal formula" that can be used for the whole world.

For practitioners, blindly following the trend will only fall into a new inversion. Only by taking root in the real needs of consumers, strengthening supply chain efficiency, and finding their position in the "price belt, segmented categories, and regional markets" can they gain a long foothold in this long track.

This article was originally published by Hongqi.com (ID: hongcan18), author: He Peiling; editor: Fang Yuan; cover image of this article is sourced: Tuchuang Creative, some of the accompanying images are provided by Xu Funiu, and Hongqi.com is authorized to use.