In the global economic landscape, as an emerging force, China's growth rate and potential have always attracted much attention.
As early as 2020, Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly stated that China's total economic output is expected to reach twice or even more than that of the United States based on calculations of population size and production efficiency. This view is not isolated, but originates from observations on the development paths of the two countries.
Since China initiated reform and opening up in 1978, it has gradually built a socialist market economic system by establishing special economic zones and technological development zones. By 2025, it has formed a complete industrial chain layout. Unlike the early days of relying solely on foreign investment, it now emphasizes independent innovation and high-quality transformation.
Musk's prediction stems from his unique career experience.
He showed business sensitivity since childhood, earned money by self-taught programming and developing games, and later obtained a double degree in economics and physics, which allowed him to regard technology as the core of economics when investing in fields such as solar energy and space exploration.
On February 28, 2020, he pointed out in a public event that China's population is about four times that of the United States, and as long as the per capita output reaches half of the United States, the overall economic scale can double.
This logic is based on basic economic indicators and emphasizes the role of population multiplier in long-term growth.
China's accumulation in the manufacturing industry just confirms this potential. From the coastal opening in the 1980s to the current national development zone network, China's manufacturing industry has shifted from low-end processing to high-end equipment exports, such as the global leadership of the high-speed rail and electric vehicle industry chain.
Compared with the US economy, the United States promoted industrialization through national unification after the War of Independence and became a manufacturing power at the end of the 19th century. Its model relies on capitalist market regulation and the division of labor of various states. For example, the technology industry is concentrated in California, and the manufacturing industry is in some Midwest regions.
By 2025, the nominal GDP of the United States will be approximately US$30.51 trillion, but based on purchasing power parity, China has reached US$35.29 trillion, leading the United States at US$28.78 trillion.
China's development path is different from that. In the early years, it attracted technology transfer through opening up to the outside world. Now, through national strategic investment in semiconductors and new energy, it has achieved a transformation from import dependence to independent control. Compared with the past, this update is reflected in the increase in R&D investment and the integrity of the industrial chain.
Musk's remarks are not the first time. On May 18, 2022, he once again emphasized that China's economy may triple the United States, and suggested that the United States focus on competition rather than internal consumption.
This view was verified by data in 2025, and China's PPP GDP share accounted for 19.68% of the world, exceeding 14.75% of the United States.
China has made particularly significant progress in the service industry, expanding from traditional trade to digital economy, such as the global influence of mobile payments and e-commerce platforms, which is different from the early physical export model. Now, it optimizes resource allocation through big data to promote consumption-driven growth.
Although the United States is leading in software innovation, the hardware manufacturing part has moved outward, resulting in increased supply chain vulnerability.
China has improved the transformation of labor from quantity to quality through education investment, and per capita GDP rose from low levels at the beginning of reform and opening up to about US$13,000 in 2025, which provides the basis for overall scale expansion.
The silence of senior U.S. officials about Musk's predictions is eye-catching.
This may reflect a default on data trends, with China's investment in infrastructure, such as the national coverage of high-speed rail networks, in contrast to aging facilities in the United States.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has transformed from pure exports to reciprocal investment. Unlike in the past, it now focuses on rule docking and regional cooperation, such as participating in the RCEP agreement, expanding its market influence.
Musk's investment experience has made him personally feel the efficiency of China's supply chain. His company cooperates with Chinese companies in the field of electric vehicles, witnessing the acceleration of R&D speed with policy support.
China's economic system has been establishing a socialist market economy in 1992 to regulating the platform economy through antitrust laws and regulations in 2025. Unlike the disorderly competition in the past, it now emphasizes sustainable growth.
For example, in the field of green energy, China has controlled and updated its solar panel exports to the entire industrial chain, invested in wind power and hydrogen energy technology, and led the global installed capacity.
The United States relies on private innovation, but government subsidies are relatively limited, resulting in lag in certain industries such as high-speed rail.
China has also made significant progress in the field of aerospace. From satellite launch to autonomous space station construction, unlike in the past, it now supports the transformation of scientific research from basic to application.
In the context of Sino-US trade frictions, China adheres to the principle of equality and mutual assistance, and has eased the impact of tariffs through diversified partners since 2018. Unlike the previous passive response, it is now actively promoting the agreement and the market has become the global focus.
China's opening up to the outside world has accelerated from joining the WTO to form a high-level pattern in 2025. Unlike in the past, it now focuses on establishing diplomatic relations with various countries and seeking cooperation.
Musk reiterated his forecast in October 2023, based on population calculations, at least double the scale, which coincides with the IMF projection, with China growing by 4% and the United States 1.8%.
The phenomenon of silence has not been officially criticized in authoritative sources, but the media has discussed its potential impact.
This indirectly confirms the impact of prediction. Through a high-quality development strategy, China has updated from speed to quality. For example, in the field of biotechnology, it has made progress from generic drugs to original research and development. Compared with the past, this advancement is reflected in the global leadership in the number of patents.
The Chinese market attracts foreign capital, with a share of local brands in the electric vehicle field exceeding 50%, and is updated quickly.
Compared with the United States, China's expansion in the consumer field supports the service industry through the growth of residents' income. Unlike the past export dependence, domestic demand now has become a growth engine.
China's investment in the semiconductor field has gradually reduced external dependence and promoted chip design updates through funds. Unlike the import dominance in the past, its autonomy has increased significantly.
Musk sees the advantages of China's policy execution, and his company builds factories in China, benefiting from the market size.
By 2025, China's GDP will lead the EU by PPP calculations of US$21.99 trillion, which not only verifies the forecast, but also affects global supply chain dependence.
Through peaceful development, China focuses on domestic demand and mutual assistance to the outside world. Unlike the United States' accumulation through historical wars, China focuses on sustainable development through its path.
Musk's economic perspective made him regard technology as an economic commodity. China's practice in this combination, such as the global leadership of electric vehicle battery technology, is different from the assembly model in the past, and now it is leading the formulation of standards.
The silence of senior American officials may be due to internal economic pressures such as inflation control, which gives China the opportunity to deepen reforms and promote the transformation from traditional to modern economy.
China's investment in education and human resources has been updated from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, which provides impetus for long-term growth and is consistent with Musk's population logic.
Ultimately, this prediction, from bold to reality, demonstrates China's economic resilience, and consolidates its world position through continuous innovation and opening up.
