Tariffs need to be refunded? Gold soared? In this seemingly quiet but actually undercurrent struggle between China and the United States, a tariff war is reaching the intersection of fate. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that Trump's main policy of imposing tariffs during his tenure was "overwhelmed" and the case has been sent to the Supreme Court for trial.

Less than 24 hours after the verdict was announced, the People's Bank of China rarely disclosed gold reserve data in a high-profile manner, reaching 74.02 million ounces. It is worth noting that my country has increased its holdings of gold for 10 consecutive months, sending out an important signal.

A big country is paying tax refunds, while another big country is silently "buying gold". Behind this is the final chapter of the tariff war or the prelude to the financial war?

Trump's life and death test

This tariff lawsuit, which began in 2023, has finally caused a real storm. Several American importers have joined forces to sue the illegal policy of imposing tariffs during Trump.

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals voted to rule 7 to 2 that the White House's behavior was an overpowering operation, and that the tariff policy had serious problems with the legality level. According to the Financial Times cited legal analysis, the court held that Article 201 of the 1974 Trade Act cited by the Trump administration has limited authority and cannot support its large-scale tax hike.

This is not only a legal dispute, but also a heavy punch in the face of Trump's political legacy. After all, when the former president was in office, he claimed to be "governing the country with tariffs", and the trade war was booming. From US$300 billion in tariffs on China to pressure cards on Europe, Japan and South Korea, Trump's economic strategy is almost entirely centered on the slogan of "making the United States great."

But at present, if the Supreme Court upheld the original verdict, the Trump administration may face pressure to refund up to $150 billion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent declared that relevant departments are conducting in-depth research on potential compensation mechanisms and trying to find a reasonable and effective compensation path to deal with possible situations. The Peterson Institute of International Economics even said bluntly: This is not only a fiscal issue, but also a life-and-death test of the "legality" of Trump's economic policies.

More importantly, this ruling may detonate political mines before the 2026 midterm elections. If Trump wants to return to politics, the direction of this tariff case will become a key variable in whether he can "turn the tables". For the Democratic government, whether to support tax refunds will also become the center of the public opinion storm.

China responds to the "tax refund war" with actions

Just less than 24 hours after the public ruling of the US court, the People's Bank of China released a compelling data: as of the end of August, gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces, a tenth consecutive month of increase in holdings, with a scale of about 2,300 tons. This is not an ordinary "data update", it is a strategic signal.

Since 2015, China's gold reserves have grown by 80%. Without clear financial intentions, no one would buy gold so intensively at this critical moment. China's abacus is not difficult to understand: the US dollar system is unstable and the risks of US debt are rising, and gold is the real ballast.

At the same time, China's attitude towards U.S. debt is also quietly changing. Once the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, it has now fallen to third place. According to the Financial Times data, China has continuously reduced its holdings of U.S. bonds in the past 15 months, with a total scale of 35%. This is not a whim, but a long-term layout.

Some people say that this is China's "de-dollarization". In fact, to be more precise, this is "reconstructing the boundaries of financial security." Against the backdrop of Trump's tariff policy being overturned and the dollar's credit is facing a revaluation, China no longer relies on Washington's fiscal discipline, but chooses to use gold and RMB as new financial tools.

In addition, the internationalization process of RMB is accelerating significantly. Data from the Global Banking Finance and Telecommunications Association shows that the proportion of RMB cross-border payments continues to rise. Emerging market countries are more inclined to settle local currency. In the energy and raw materials transactions in BRICS countries, the RMB is gradually replacing the US dollar, showing a strong development trend.

In other words, the United States has legally "refunded" and China has "increased" its financially. This is not a simple confrontation, but an escalation of the game in the strategic dimension.

The Sino-US game is changing track

The main game field between China and the United States has been in trade and is now quietly shifting to the financial field. The Trump administration originally relied on tariffs as bargaining chips, but if the Supreme Court upheld the verdict, the trump card would turn into a historical embarrassment. On the other hand, gold reserves, U.S. bond reductions, and RMB internationalization are gradually building a set of their own financial firewall.

China and the United States have completed 12 rounds of trade negotiations, and the 13th round was originally planned to be held in late September. But the current situation is no longer comparable to that in the past. If the US loses tariff leverage, it will lose a trump card on the negotiating table; while China has strengthened its strategic autonomy through financial means, it has gained more initiative in the new round of negotiations.

The next situation may have three directions:

If the Supreme Court upheld the original verdict, the pressure on the US side to refund surges, and Sino-US negotiations will inevitably turn to financial issues. Whether the US dollar credit can still "suppress the country" and whether the RMB can become a regional hard currency is the core of the next round of struggle.

If the Supreme Court overturns the ruling, Trump will get the tariff stick back, but now it is different from the past, and its effectiveness will be greatly reduced. After all, many companies and allies have lost confidence in this policy. Under this situation, the EU's investment commitment of more than $1 trillion is likely to become a sham, and the early efforts may be wasted.

Another possible is a compromise decision, retaining part of the tariff structure but adjusting the implementation method. Although this can alleviate domestic political pressure, it does not help rebuild global confidence. The US-European trade coordination mechanism will face considerable challenges, and emerging market countries will also accelerate the pace of "de-USD".

From a more macro perspective, this Sino-US game that started with a tariff war is becoming a redistribution of the global financial order. The BRICS countries actively advocate local currency settlement, and this move seems to be a powerful heavy hammer, constantly impacting the foundation of the US dollar hegemony, making it gradually exhausted. Under this situation, the formation process of the multipole monetary system has accelerated significantly, and the world's monetary pattern is ushering in profound changes.

This tariff storm seems to be a review of Trump's personal policies, but in fact it contains the code of transformation of the Sino-US game. The U.S. unilateral sanctions tool is ineffective, while China's systemic response capabilities are increasing. From trade to finance, from US debt to gold, this competition has changed the track.

The final victory or loss may not be a ruling. But who can build certainty in uncertainty and stabilize the rhythm in turmoil. The tariffs are not refunded, and gold is not bought. Behind it is the game and temptation of the strategy of a great power, and it is also a footnote to the reconstruction of the global order.

This is not the end of Sino-US relations, but the beginning of a new game that is more complex, deeper and longer. The real contest between China and the United States has just begun.