Text | Dreamer in the Sea
Editor | Dreamer in the Sea
Once upon a time, Taiwan was one of the richest regions in the Chinese world, which made countless mainland compatriots envious. In 1993, when the two sides of the Taiwan Strait had just resumed exchanges, an astonishing number was in front of us: Taiwan's per capita GDP is 29 times that of the mainland. 30 years have passed, the mainland's economy has taken off, Taiwan's development has stagnated, and the once huge gap is shrinking rapidly.
But what is interesting is that more and more Taiwanese people are beginning to feel that their living standards are not as good as those in the mainland. What is the truth behind these changing numbers?
The economic gap between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has to start in 1949. When Chiang Kai-shek ran away, he moved all the things he could move, including gold, silver, foreign exchange, and even the treasures of the Forbidden City.
A great country has accumulated decades of wealth, and it is all stuffed into a small island. How can it not be rich per capita? What's more serious is that after the Korean War, Americans began to spend money on Taiwan. That was real American aid, helping to build factories, repair ports, and do infrastructure. We have just established the country and are poor and have to tighten our belts to repay the debts of the Soviet Union.
In 1960, the gap became apparent. Taiwan's per capita GDP was US$164, while mainland China only US$90. Throughout the 1960s, Taiwan took the express train of international industrial transfer. At that time, the labor-intensive industries of the United States and Japan moved out, and Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore all caught it. This was the four Asian dragons later.
Taiwan started to "maintain agriculture for industry", use agricultural products to export foreign exchange, and then use this money to develop light industry. By 1970, Taiwan's per capita GDP rose to US$393, and the mainland was only US$113, only 29% of others. In another ten years, Taiwan had US$2,385 in 1980, and the mainland was still hovering around US$195.
The most sad thing is that in 1987, when exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait just resumed that year, Taiwanese compatriots returned to the mainland to visit relatives. Taiwan's per capita GDP was US$5,265 and mainland China's US$252, a 21-fold difference. By 1993, the gap reached its historical highest point, a full 29-fold increase, with Taiwan's US$11,079 and mainland China's US$382.
Behind this number are two completely different living conditions. At that time, every family in Taiwan had color TV refrigerators, motorcycles were running all over the streets, and many places in the mainland were still working hard for food and clothing.
However, in the 1990s, the mainland began to make efforts, exchange rate reform, tax system reform, and state-owned enterprise reform, one after another, especially joining the WTO in 2001, which really opened a door.
Since China's joining the WTO is like playing games and opening up plug-ins, the market of more than one billion people has suddenly opened up to the public, and factories around the world want to come in, how much energy is this.
From the data, the change is amazing. In 2001, the per capita GDP of mainland China exceeded US$1,000. Although it was only 8.1% of that of Taiwan, the growth momentum had already risen. By 2010, the mainland was US$4,629 and Taiwan was US$18,588, and the gap narrowed to 4 times.
Behind this are two different development paths. Taiwan is taking the typical OEM model, helping others produce and earning processing fees. This model is indeed easy to get rich in places with few people, but the ceiling is also obvious. The mainland is taking another path, introducing first, then digesting, and finally innovating independently. Although it starts late, it has enough momentum.
So since the mainland is developing so fast, is it catching up with Taiwan now? The answer to this question may surprise many people.
In 2010, Taiwan's GDP rose to US$430.1 billion, which looks good, but the mainland has soared to more than 6 trillion, and Taiwan only accounts for 7%. This speed of change is like a rocket.
Look at the recent years, Taiwan's GDP in 2021 was 4998.581 billion yuan, ranking eighth in the country, sandwiched between Hubei and Fujian.
By 2024, the gap is even more obvious. The mainland's GDP is 18.74 trillion US dollars and Taiwan's GDP is 795.6 billion US dollars, accounting for only 4.3%. In 30 years, from half to 4%, this reversal plot is even more exciting than TV series.
However, places with a large GDP do take advantage of it. We have 1.4 billion people, and they are only more than 23 million, which is less than the permanent population of Beijing, so the fairer comparison is to look at the per capita.
In 2020, Taiwan's per capita GDP was about US$28,300, and the mainland's average GDP was 10,000 US dollars, 2.8 times the difference was 2.8 times. In 2021, Taiwan's average GDP was 33,000 US dollars, and the mainland's average US$13,300 US dollars, or 2.6 times the difference.
When I saw this, someone might say that after a long time of work, the average person is still so much different? Don't worry, there are many ways here.
Just talking about the price, it is the same as 100 yuan, and you may just have a bento in Taipei. You can have a good meal in second-tier cities in mainland China. Once you calculate the purchasing power parity, the actual gap is not as big as the numbers show.
There is also an industrial structure. Taiwan’s most promising right now is semiconductor and electronics foundry. TSMC’s GDP in 2021 is US$90 billion. Many of the world’s most advanced chips are made by TSMC.
But the dependence of Taiwan's economy on the mainland has reached a point where it is inseparable. In 2021, Taiwan's exports to the mainland account for 42.3% of the total exports. Taiwan's economy is like a processing factory, with raw materials and markets in the mainland, and they only earn a handicraft fee in the middle.
On the other hand, the mainland has a lot more industries, with new energy vehicles being the world's number one, BYD, NIO, and Ideal, photovoltaic capacity accounting for 90% of the world's total, solar panels are basically covered by China, shipbuilding is the world's first, and innovative drugs account for one-third of the world's total.
This is the benefit of scale. Taiwan is just that big, with 23 million people. No matter how it develops, it is to improve several industries. The mainland is different. It can be done in any industry, and it can all be achieved in scale.
At present, Taiwan is indeed leading the way in chip manufacturing, but the mainland is catching up quickly, let alone other industries, many of which have achieved overtake.
Some time ago, a Taiwanese internet celebrity came to the mainland to broadcast live. Everything was fresh, high-speed rail, mobile payment, takeaway, and shared bicycles, and everything made him exclaim. He said that our per capita GDP is 2.6 times that of yours, but why do you feel that your life is more convenient?
This raises the question: If per capita GDP is high, will the living standard be high?
In fact, Taiwan has a large amount of water in its per capita GDP. There are many super rich people in Taiwan, and there are many billionaires in their population of billions. Within a population of 23 million, the number will naturally increase as soon as these rich people are averaged, but what about ordinary people?
Young people in Taiwan now like to work in the mainland, especially in the high-tech industry, because there are many opportunities and large development space in the mainland. In Taiwan, many industries have reached the ceiling, and young people cannot see hope.
But then again, the per capita GDP is not completely meaningless. It at least shows one problem: the mainland still has a lot of room for development. If the mainland's per capita GDP reaches US$30,000 one day, how terrifying is the total amount?
So the current situation is that in terms of total volume, Taiwan has been far behind; in terms of per capita, there are advantages on the surface, but the gap in actual living standards is already very small. More importantly, one is catching up quickly, and the other is basically stagnant. This trend can tell at a glance what the future will be.
But numbers are numbers, life is life, no matter how high the per capita GDP is, if wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people, if young people cannot see hope, if the infrastructure is outdated and backward, then this number is just a number, because numbers will deceive people, but life will not.
Taiwan's per capita GDP was 29 times that of the mainland 30 years ago, and now it is 2.6 times. This change itself shows everything. More importantly, the moisture in these 2.6 times is very large.
Taiwanese rich people support their stores, ordinary people's wages do not rise, young people cannot find jobs, and infrastructure still stays in the last century. On the other hand, although the per capita figures are still catching up, the lives of ordinary people are getting better and better day by day, which is real.
As for what will happen in the future, you will know when you look at the development momentum of both sides. One is still growing rapidly, and the other is already on the spot. The gap will only get smaller and smaller until one day, you may not even be able to save this number advantage.
Taiwan can only get better and better if we hold on to the mainland and unite the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. If we have other thoughts at this time and have better and better days, we can only watch us continue to improve our living standards and leave Taiwan behind.
