Brothers, today's market is full of drama, it's like a world of ice and fire! Sentiment has been repaired, but the market has shrunk significantly and has fallen below 2 trillion yuan. This is the first time since August 12 that the index rose and fell. In the morning, the index rose and fell, and in the afternoon, the repair began, the solid-state battery adjusted, and AI began to rebound oversold. So friends, are you making money or losing today?
Let's first look back at today's market. There are 3 core highlights:
First is the market continuing to shrink in volume.We have seen this wave of index rebound. The highest trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3.1 trillion, but yesterday it had shrunk to 2.1 trillion, and today it continued to shrink in volume, which was less than 2 trillion. In the current market, volume is the most imperative to deceive people. It is almost one-third less than the highest trading volume, which proves that many off-market are in a state of withdrawal or waiting and watching, and the market can at most maintain a fluctuating and sideways trend;
The second is short-term emotional recovery.The market has been in a period of emotional ebbs recently, but there are local repairs today. There are two signals. One is the direction of high-level cliques. After Temple was locked up, it continued to push up two boards. Now it has reached the height of 11 consecutive boards. The robot's first opening also changed hands to 6 consecutive boards. Both cores have opened up the height of the recent market continuous boards and also led to the recovery of short-term sentiment in the market. There are more than 50 stocks that hit the daily limit today, and only one stock has hit the daily limit.
The third is whether it is funds or large-capacity institutional stocks. Among the top 20 stocks in the two markets today, 16 stocks rose sharply, including big guys such as Shenghong, Industrial Fifties and Cambrian.
Next, what the old people are concerned about is that tomorrow is Thursday. Will the market, which has been fluctuating sideways for two consecutive days, continue to break upward, or will it step back down 3,800 points again to seek consolidation? Based on some signals and details on the plate, Brother Dong gave everyone a clear prediction in advance!
1. Judging from the pace of the index, after the market rebounded heavily last Friday, the first three days of this week was a trend of shrinking volume adjustment, but the overall trend is still there. Although the market has shrunk volume in recent days, the market is currently maintaining above the 5-day moving average and has not broken. The market's recovery and pullback in the afternoon is basically mainly based on oversold directions such as AI hardware and AI agents. It can be seen that the current market trend has been supported by the main funds. It is obvious that the integer mark of 3800 points has a fund support. Once it reaches the 5-day line, there will be funds to support the bottom.From the core index structure, Today is a general rebound, but the market is stronger than small stocks. The strongest is the ChiNext 50 Index, and the relatively weak ones are the National Securities 2000 and CSI 500.
The ChiNext Index is obviously stronger than the main board index today, and has stood firm in the 10-day and 5-day lines. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the 10-day moving average is still at the pressure level. The market is likely to fluctuate sideways in the box of 3750-3850 in the next two days this week. It is unlikely that it will break above the new high of 3888 in the short term, unless the market volume can return to above 2.8 trillion again. The subsequent fluctuations of the ChiNext Index will be greater. Once the sentiment stabilizes, the probability of taking the lead in breaking through the previous high of 2979 will be greater.
2. Judging from the rhythm of theme rotation, solid-state batteries that have been strong for three consecutive days have begun to adjust collectively today. The funds are doing a rebound in the technology AI line, and the market is still waiting for a new cycle window. After the bidding ends today, we can intuitively see that the mood of computing power is well repaired, with two core anchor points: One is the liquid-cooled core Chunzhong, who made the first statement to hit the daily limit yesterday, continued to hold high and win the second consecutive board. This is also the first second consecutive board in the oversold rebound in the computing power direction. The other is that the bidding in the CP0 direction was beyond expectations, and Cambridge and Xinyisheng opened more than 7 points.
To put it bluntly, in the case of market shrinking volume, funds are still making high and low cuts in the emotional rhythm.The liquid cooling, power, data center and other directions of computing power have fallen much, and today there will be repairs.The strongest repairs in the afternoon of the trading session are film and television theaters and AI intelligent bodies represented by short drama games. This is also the direction of relative stagflation when the previous wave of artificial intelligence surges, andThe solid state, lithium batteries and other directions that have risen for a few days have begun to make adjustments.
This round of short-term emotional cycles After this wave of solid-state batteries' theme transition, the new main line cycle has to wait for the emergence. The highest continuous board in the market has exceeded 11 continuous boards (chips of the technology line) and 6 continuous boards (robot direction), which is the subsequent direction worth paying attention to.
New energy solid-state batteries are the strongest theme for the transition of big technology. Yesterday, they reached a short-term sentiment high and began to have strong differences today. However, from the perspective of the overall chip structure of the sector, they are still relatively stable for the time being. funds are also making up for the increase in internal support. Enjie has made a counter-package today, and some core trends have not been stepped on by the 5-day line of the Central Army. You can continue to observe.
For the rotation expectations of tomorrow's theme, if it is an offensive idea, the technology line will continue to look at the repair expectations, but the rotation rhythm must be grasped well. I am still optimistic that funds will rotate and switch in several directions such as robots of big technology, domestic computing power, and AI weapons. Securities can also be lurking, and there are two defensive ideas, one is big consumption and the other is small metals of cycles.
3. In terms of position thinking, after the market fell sharply last week and rebounded on Friday, it began to fall again at the beginning of this week. I know that many friends directly lost the previous profits in September, and they empathized with everyone.The feeling of holding positions will be very uncomfortable recently. I will cheer you up here. The market is currently in a period of volatile adjustment, but 3888 will not be the highest point of this wave of market, and there will be a new high. Strictly follow your stock selection logic and trading plan, and extend the time cycle a little longer. As long as the logic of holding stocks is still there and there is no more patience to completely break the level, what should be returned will come back.
The market is anti-human. It is obviously optimistic about directions and individual stocks. Many people dare not suck when the green market falls, but instead chase the rise when the speed rises. This is in a cycle of reincarnation led by emotions. Especially under the current market sentiment of shrinking volume, the market is gradually transitioning from its early active state to a calm stage. In the short term, before the direction of the market fluctuation range is clear, it is recommended to control the position well, and the overall position is not recommended to exceed 60%. Don’t blindly chase ups and sell downs, and hold patiently for varieties with solid fundamentals.
It should be said that the risk of the market's recent downward adjustment has not been completely lifted. You should focus on the volume in the future. 1.8 trillion cannot fall below. If it breaks, it is likely to be a weak oscillation stage.Secondly, pay attention to the nodes of the Fed's next interest rate meeting from September 16 to 17. Many funds are observed off-market. After the dust is settled, they will see if there is anything beyond expectations. Only off-market funds will make a new choice.
Okay, that's all for today's article. If there are any new changes and important details in the market in the future, Dong Ge will post a timely reminder
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It's like this today, I wish you good luck!
#Stock market review##Stock Market Analysis##Artificial Intelligence#Can #A shares continue to rise sharply#
