A shares fluctuated narrowly today, with a slight increase. The ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board rose significantly. The number of individual stocks rose lower than the number of falling stocks, and the money-making effect was average. The trading volume of the two markets shrank today. After the securities sector continued to trade sideways, it showed a surge and a decline. Does it indicate that the market will change tomorrow and will be reappear on the black Thursday?
First, yesterday the main A-shares reduced their positions significantly, and today they just controlled the rhythm of net capital outflow.
Yesterday, all futures institutions added 6032 long positions, and CITIC net increased 1716 long positions, corresponding to the net outflow of A-share funds of 82.5 billion yuan. Compared with the net inflow last Friday, it was a significant net outflow. Today, they changed their rhythm and changed to a narrow range of fluctuations, making a rebound, and the net outflow amount was greatly reduced.
The rebound of A-shares this afternoon was due to the bottoming out of the securities sector, and it opened on time at 2 pm. The market index also saw an intraday high of 3827 points. The decline after 2:10 was also caused by the decline of the securities sector. In the end, the market closed a small red market, with the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board rising significantly, both exceeding 1%.
Benben personally thinks that the main funds continue to extend the rebound time in order to ship goods. If the market rushes faster, it will suppress it. In this way, A-shares will continue to rebound tomorrow.
From the trend of the main funds in A-shares today, it can be seen that a small part of the main funds have returned in the afternoon. This phenomenon occurred at 11 am today. According to real-time trading data of Dongcai Trading Software, the net outflow of main funds at 11 o'clock was 17.3 billion yuan, and the closing of the morning was reduced to 12.7 billion yuan, and it shrank to 6.6 billion yuan at 2:30 pm. During this period, the A-share market rebounded, but in the second half of the hour, the net outflow of main players increased to 11.4 billion yuan again, indicating that the main players were drilling holes and they also had to ship.
This phenomenon often occurred before, and Benben also explained it to everyone. Combined with the reality that the trading volume cannot be amplified, we know that at this position, the main force dared not go down any further. Now there is no trading volume, just no one takes over, and no one takes over the market down.
The second is that the most unfavorable factor for the rebound of A-shares is the continuous shrinking of trading volume, which is very dangerous.
According to Tongdaxin's real-time trading data, A-shares traded nearly 2 trillion yuan today, shrinking 140 billion yuan from yesterday, and yesterday shrank by 310 billion yuan from the previous trading day. This is not a good phenomenon, because the market index is above 3800 points, which requires large trading volume to support the market to gain a foothold. Now, the trading volume has not increased, and it still shrinks significantly. What should I use to support the continued rise of A-shares? Do I still have to play a one-man show?
At such a high position, retail investors don't like to play with the boss. The second one does not bring the retail investors to play, but the boss comes forward to support the index. Everyone still loses money, which means little. They will also let the boss make wedding clothes for others and give them a tray, which will be a bit of a price loss.
The current main brokerage and fund players have also tasted the difficulties of the major major players struggling to support the index from April to May last year, and they dare not fall or rise.
The main players of all walks of life are also very cautious now. Because of the sharp decline and falling, many people will think that the trend has changed and the big buffalo runs away. Everyone will choose to reduce their positions when they rebound. During the decline, the main players cannot even make a decent rebound. This main players cannot stand it. After all, their positions are very large. If you want to ship, at least you have to find an opponent with basically equal size. Relying on retail investors will not solve the problem, and you also need points. This requires that the issuance of funds will quickly rise. Some new funds can take over the market, which is called "building positions, but in fact they are taking over."
Third, tomorrow is Thursday, which is a time node that is very sensitive to global stock markets. Will A-shares make a Black Thursday tomorrow?
Benben thought that there was no need to worry about whether it was black or not on Thursday. This is because the main players of our A-shares are extremely disgusted with black Thursday. In the past, they would try every means to make a rise on Thursday, and sometimes the increase was still large. Now the main players in the second and third-tier cities are in a prime time for shipments, and they are even more unwilling to make black Thursday to defeat the confidence of retail investors in holding shares.
Because the market rebound target has not been fully realized, that is, the area around 3850 points has not been touched, today it was suppressed at 3828 points, and Benben also told you that the main players in the second and third tiers hope to make the rebound period longer and ship more calmly and elegantly. Therefore, the probability of making a black Thursday tomorrow is not high.
From the technical trend of the A-share market, the 60-minute KDJ rebound has been made, and the daily line pattern has been sideways for three days. Tomorrow, the main force will do sideways for another day. It is not difficult, so you can choose the direction. For the sake of shipment, it will do whatever you ask them to do. The stock market is not very high-end, it is all for profit. Therefore, when trading stocks, do not force things outside the stock market to the stock market, and respect their objective trend.
The most important thing is that the securities sector is also in a sideways state, and a relatively strong rebound is currently brewing. From the analysis of its K-line trend and technical trend, it is suppressed. After 5 trading days, a change in the market will appear tomorrow. The securities sector's tomorrow's trend can be expected.
Statement: The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. The following article is original by me, first published on the headlines, and plagiarism will be prosecuted! The following content is personal opinion and is for reference only and is not used as an investment basis!
