Today's market is a typical market wash. Taking the ChiNext as an example, it opened high and closed high, opened nearly 2 points, then plunged and fell green, and then pulled up again in the afternoon. If it shakes a little, the person who starts to chase high and then cuts his losses will be in great pain. In the sector, the strong consumer electronics, communications, and components that were strong in the early stage rose again today, but it is still a market where the index may not necessarily make money. Taking consumer electronics as an example, the sector rose by 4 points, but the average increase is only 0.3%. So although the index has risen so much, once the stock selection is wrong, it is likely to lose money today. No need to ask, it is definitely the "Yi Zhongtian" who are doing it. The following analysis of the trend:
Look at the weight first. Since the market has been sideways in the past three days, the trend division of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is also complicated. There are two centers in the oscillation ranges of these three sections in the figure. If you look at it from the perspective of expanding the five levels, the current three expansion centers have been completed, and the three complete expansion of the five levels consolidation trend, so a 30-minute expansion center is completed. Theoretically, the adjustment triggered by the five-minute trend divergence that led to this decline can be over, and you can go directly upward to leave the section tomorrow. Of course, theory is theory, reality is reality. The third paragraph expanding the five-level trend is subjectively drawn. There is no divergence, and it cannot be judged that it has ended, so it can continue to extend downward tomorrow, which means that the adjustment is not over yet.
One perspective, from the yellow five-minute center in the figure, today ended the five-minute central oscillation, tomorrow is the upward departure section. From this perspective, tomorrow can only rise but not fall. This perspective will rise in the short term, but its subsequent evolution is also more troublesome. If the rise is behind, but cannot significantly increase and break the divergence, it will trigger a 30-minute trend divergence, which may directly lead to the end of this wave of market, and then it will need to significantly reduce or even clear the positions. If you cannot break through the previous high, the mid-term is relatively better because this is a 30-minute central oscillation, but in the short term, there will be a five-minute decline later, and then the mid-term market will continue.
In short, the direction of the index cannot be confirmed today, but after three days of fluctuation, this direction can be confirmed tomorrow. If it falls, you can add positions when there is a divergence, just like last Thursday; if it rises, it will reduce positions, but if it does not divergence, you cannot reduce, because this may be a 30-minute exit period, which is different from yesterday. Yesterday, it will rise to near the previous high and you have to reduce. Now I understand the benefits of filling up my positions last Thursday. If it falls to the previous low tomorrow, it will be useless these days. If it rises directly tomorrow, it will be even better. However, if you divide it according to the current trend and fill up your positions today, once it goes down tomorrow, it will be passive. This is why even if the adjustment was not over, we had to fill it first, which was to prevent this trend from happening.
The equal weight index is basically the same as the structure of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. It is to expand the center of the 30-minute downwards, and to the upwards, the exit section of the five-minute trend. As for which one, there should be a result when the market opens tomorrow.
A news came out after the market today. King Dong threatened to pay taxes to China and India. This is a negative news, but the foreign market did not respond much. Of course, if the foreign market does not respond, it does not mean that the A-shares will not respond tomorrow. If you borrow this to smash it tomorrow, don’t be scared out. #Stock Market Analysis##Today's review#
