The recent situation in the South China Sea has once again become the focus of outside attention. First, Renai Reef. We know that the Philippines has been maintaining an old World War II landing ship on Renai Reef that was already seriously worn out, as a so-called "stronghold" in the South China Sea. This warship, called "Mount Madre", has long lost its navigation ability and can only rely on supplies to maintain the daily lives of the soldiers on the ship. However, the Chinese Coast Guard recently intercepted ships that transported supplies to Ren'ai Reef twice in a row, which made the outside world wonder whether this means that China has changed its past strategy and instead adopted blockade measures.
From the tone of the Philippine military spokesperson, they want to send a signal that "we are prepared and are not afraid of supply cuts." But the problem is that the last time the Philippines confirmed supply was two months ago. According to convention, they usually need to replenish supplies every 40 days, and now they are delayed to 60 days or even longer. It is hard to imagine that the lives of soldiers on the ship can be fully maintained. There have been even news from the Philippines that the last supply may be earlier than the official said, which indirectly shows that the situation is not optimistic.
In other words, if the Philippines can no longer perform supplies smoothly, the people on Renai Reef will be in trouble sooner or later. Cut off food and water is not just empty talk, especially in an isolated environment. Once the materials are exhausted, the result will be that people will be forced to evacuate. This is also the focus of widespread attention from the outside world after China intercepted the supply ship: How long can the Philippines last?
At the same time, China's actions on Huangyan Island undoubtedly once again highlighted the initiative. The State Council formally approved the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, which means that it will be subject to stricter ecological protection and management. The official letter mentioned that it should be implemented in accordance with the "Nature Reserve Regulations", improve institutions, strengthen supervision, and eliminate any illegal and irregular behaviors. This is not only an emphasis on environmental protection, but also a clear signal to the outside world: Huangyan Island's jurisdiction and sovereignty belong to China.
The political and strategic significance behind this decision is also clear. Huangyan Island has always been the focus of conflict between China and the Philippines, and the United States has intervened here from time to time. Not long ago, the USS Higgins destroyer suddenly appeared in the waters of Huangyan Island. This is the first time that a US warship has launched an operation here in six years. It is obvious that the Philippines and extraterritorial forces want to put pressure on China through joint actions, but China's response is to consolidate management and control directly in the form of a national protected area. This "prints on paper" method is more convincing than any verbal statement.
In fact, looking back at the situation in Renai Reef, the Philippines's desire to maintain the so-called "existence" here is not due to its own strength, but its dependence on the United States, Japan and other countries. In every supply operation, almost all the United States or other allies cooperate in public opinion. Even after the news of the failure of Ren'ai Reef's supply was announced, the outside world immediately saw US warships wandering around Huangyan Island, as if supporting the Philippines. However, can this approach solve the problem? The answer is probably no. No matter how much public opinion supports it, it cannot send food and fresh water to the soldiers on Renai Reef.
Therefore, from a strategic analysis, China's interception actions on Ren'ai Reef are an integrated layout with the construction of the protected area of Huangyan Island. The former is to control specific military risks, while the latter is to strengthen the sovereignty foundation of institutional and legality. A two-pronged approach not only makes the Philippines unsustainable on the issue of supply, but also firmly incorporates Huangyan Island into the national management scope through institutional construction. In the long run, this approach can create a stable situation more than simple confrontation.
Maybe the situation in the South China Sea will not change completely due to failure of supply or the establishment of protected areas, but the direction is clear: China is taking the initiative to consolidate its existing advantages, while the Philippines is hovering between constant provocation and passiveness. As time goes by, the so-called "existence" of Renai Reef is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, while the management and protection of Huangyan Island will become increasingly institutionalized and normalized.
In short, the supply issue of Renai Reef has given the Philippines a passive taste, and China's establishment of a national nature reserve on Huangyan Island further demonstrates its ability to control the situation. If the Philippines continues to provoke in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, it will only put itself in a deeper dilemma. On the contrary, if we can return to the track of dialogue and cooperation, perhaps the real way out. But at present, the Marcos administration does not seem to have such plans.
Next, the storm in the South China Sea will continue, but the situation has become clearer and clearer. China is strengthening control, the Philippines is struggling passively, external forces are constantly disrupting the situation, and the pulling of forces from several parties will continue to test the wisdom and patience of all parties. The result of this game ultimately depends on who can take the initiative. From Renai Reef to Huangyan Island, China has given the answer with actions.
