This article is both a sharing and a discussion. It will be based on a detailed review of the latest "three kills of stocks, bonds and exchanges" of typical countries under the rules of typical US dollar hegemony. Combined with the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations and possible operations, from the perspective of respecting common sense and respecting laws, we will deeply explore the causal logic and key essence behind the Argentina's economic phenomenon, and conduct in-depth, attitude and evidence-based special discussions and analysis research on the warning significance that this incident can provide to China.

Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina (Picture source: Headline Gallery)

1

In September 2025, Argentina, which was famous for the debt crisis, encountered a new impact again?

Argentina is not only famous for football but also economic problems, but also one of the reasons why it has received widespread attention around the world.

Looking at the world, Argentina's crisis has become the focus of world attention.

Looking at Argentina's post-war economic development, Argentina is a country with frequent economic crises. Since the second half of the 20th century, Argentina has experienced nine major crises. This must arouse people's deep thoughts.

Argentina was once a fast-growing country in Latin America.

The country not only has a complete industrial system, but also has a complete livelihood security system, and its per capita GDP once ranked among the top in Latin America.

But 18 years ago, the country's economy collapsed "once overnight" and fell into a financial crisis, causing the country's economy to plummet. All economic indicators are the last in Latin America, and the country has become a third-rate country.

The reason why Argentland's country plummeted is highly consistent in the academic and economic fields around the world, and is led by the United States.

Time is coming to 2025. Obviously, the unlucky days of Argentina are still continuing:

On the evening of September 8, Beijing time, the Argentine stock market, foreign exchange market and bond market fell sharply across the board, with the Argentine stock market falling the largest in 2020; the price of bonds due in 2035, the strongest liquidity in Argentina fell by more than 6 cents at one point, and the yield climbed to 12.8%; the Argentine peso against the US dollar plummeted by nearly 5% to 1,436 peso against the US dollar.

Picture source: Internet

Picture source: Internet

After the opening of the US stock market, the stock price of Argentine companies listed on the US stock market plummeted across the board.

Picture source: Internet

It is worth noting that on September 2, the Argentine Ministry of Finance stated that it would intervene in the foreign exchange market, after the country's assets fell sharply against the backdrop of President Mile's face of a series of political and economic setbacks.

Not to mention the reasons for such financial impact, just from the actual impact, the conclusion is not complicated, that is, the economy and current situation of Argentina can be said to be very bad.

Image source: Toutiao Gallery

2

Combined with the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September, why is Argentina's crisis a typical event?

About Argentina's new round of "three kills on stocks, bonds and exchanges" at this node, there is not much analysis in the domestic public opinion environment, and it is not said that there are traffic and hot news events, but the analysis level is to be polite, obviously not good.

The official media basically focuses on statements and there is no incremental information. Some of the analysis contents of self-media are calculated. As long as the reasons for this round of Argentina's financial impact are used to rely on people (mainly the current Argentina president), or to discuss changes in the political dimensions of Argentina, they are all unreliable and low-level content.

Of course, it is also possible that it is a water army that is relatively soft in the hegemony of the US dollar and also brings its own dry food.

Argentina, from the perspective of the United States, is the most perfect case of economic domestication and continuous harvesting.

Under the long-term influence of rules and systems, whoever becomes president, as long as the economic rules cannot be completely modified, actually the result will be the same when it reaches a specific node.

From the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s, to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and to the global financial crisis in 2008, every Fed rate cut cycle is not a pure economic stimulus,It is a stress test of the vulnerability of the global financial system.

Based on historical experience and current economic fundamentals, emerging market countries with high foreign debt levels and insufficient foreign exchange reserves face the highest risk.

These countries include Argentina, Türkiye, Chile, Pakistan and Egypt.

The common characteristics of these countries are: short-term foreign debt has a high proportion of total foreign debt (more than 40%), insufficient foreign exchange reserve coverage (less than 100% of short-term foreign debt), double high fiscal deficit and current account deficit (serious "double deficit" problem).

Take Argentina as an example, the country's foreign debt accounts for more than 60% of GDP in 2025, of which short-term foreign debt accounts for as high as 45%, while foreign exchange reserves can only cover 85% of short-term foreign debt.

In the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, capital may return to the U.S. or other safe assets from these high-risk countries, causing their currency depreciation pressure and sharp rise in debt service costs.

Turkey is also one of the high-risk countries, with its foreign debt accounting for more than 50% of GDP and its inflation rate exceeding 40% for a long time. President Erdogan's insistence on low interest rates has further weakened the independence of the central bank. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, Türkiye may face the risks of capital outflows and currency crises.

In fact, Argentina is just a typical case. Similar countries and economies, as long as the United States is involved in the design of relevant economic rules and ownership models, it is basically a cyclical economic crisis and debt problems that break out.

The colonization thing has never disappeared, but the form has changed.

Image source: Toutiao Gallery

3

Impact analysis and trend discussion: How to understand the correlation between each round of interest rate cuts in the Federal Reserve and the financial crisis?

Looking back on history, there is a significant relationship between the Fed's monetary policy shift and the global financial crisis.

Since 1980, the Federal Reserve has launched a total of nine interest rate cuts, five of which were accompanied by major international financial crises or regional financial turmoil.

In the interest rate cut cycle from 1989 to 1992, the Japanese asset price bubble burst and entered a "lost decade";

After the interest rate cut from 1995 to 1996, the Asian financial crisis broke out, the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and other countries depreciated sharply, and foreign exchange reserves shrank sharply;

During the interest rate cut cycle from 2001 to 2004, the Internet bubble burst and the US economy fell into recession;

After the interest rate cut from 2007 to 2008, the global financial crisis broke out, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and financial institutions in many countries faced collapse.

So, this round of US dollar interest rate cuts will still become a curse caused by debt problems in many countries and economies, and even financial crises.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may trigger regional financial crises through various mechanisms.

The most important transmission mechanism is capital flow reversal. In the early stages of the Fed's interest rate cut, capital may flow into high-yield emerging markets due to rising risk appetite; but as the US economy slows down or even declines, risk appetite declines, capital will return to other safe assets such as the United States on a large scale.

The second important mechanism is the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate. Historically, the US dollar has performed poorly in a "shallow recession" or "non-recession" interest rate cut situation. But if the United States experiences a severe recession or global risk aversion is heating up, the dollar may strengthen, increasing pressure on the repayment of dollar debt in emerging markets.

The third mechanism is global demand slowdown. The Fed's interest rate cut is often a response to the economic slowdown, which means weaker global demand and impacts export-oriented economies, especially those that rely on raw material exports.

These mechanisms strengthen each other, which may form a vicious cycle: capital outflows lead to currency depreciation, currency depreciation increases the burden of foreign debt, foreign debt burden increases the pressure of the financial system, and the pressure of the financial system further promotes capital outflow.

Based on historical experience and current situations, from a rational and logical perspective, the possibility of crisis distribution in three interest rate cut scenarios can be predicted:

First case (benchmark case): The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates twice this year and another three next year.

The US economy achieved a "soft landing", and global economic growth slowed but did not decline. In this scenario, high-risk emerging markets (such as Argentina and Türkiye) may still experience debt crisis, but it will not evolve into a global financial crisis.

The second situation (recession situation): The US economy deteriorates beyond expectations, the unemployment rate soars, and the Federal Reserve cuts a significant interest rate to bottom the economy.

In this scenario, U.S. stocks and bonds prices fell, and gold rose.

Emerging markets are facing serious capital outflows, and currency and debt crises occur simultaneously in multiple countries, which may evolve into a global financial crisis.

The third situation (high inflation situation): historic high inflation or even "large stagflation" occurs. The Federal Reserve prioritizes inflation control targets, and high interest rates need to be maintained for longer.

In this scenario, U.S. stock and bond prices both fall, emerging markets are facing the most severe situation, and large-scale capital flows back to the United States may trigger multiple financial crises.

In general, the outbreak of crises in some countries and economies is inevitable. No matter which case, there is actually only a degree difference, no difference in nature. How can it be put away when the sickle is swung without blood?

The crisis and impact in Argentina are just the beginning.

Image source: Toutiao Gallery

Written at the end:

What warnings and inspirations can Argentina bring to China?

From China's perspective, although the core defense of ownership and the red line rules of currency control fundamentally avoided encounters similar to Argentina, the impact and impact of the United States' round of interest rate cuts may still be paid attention to.

China's economic model also has some obvious fragility points:

The real estate sector has a heavy debt burden, local government debt is large, and the pressure of slowing economic growth continues.

If the Fed rate cut triggers a global financial crisis, it may have an impact on China's economy through trade channels (declining foreign demand) and financial channels (volatility in capital flows).

Of course, these impacts are predictable, controllable from the national level, and can be easily dealt with.

But the warnings brought by Argentina cannot be taken lightly.

The first point is that the groups and views that advocate private ownership, capital controls, and open up financial markets in China need to be paid attention to and prevented.

Since the Menem government carried out crazy privatization reforms in the 1990s, Argentina's economic lifeline has been completely in the hands of foreign capital.

Argentines worked hard to produce beef and soybeans, creating a huge surplus, but the majority of profits went to Wall Street and Europe, and the people were like working for landlords on their own land.

A long-term working country, if it wants to become prosperous and strong, the difficulty is comparable to reaching the sky.

The obsession and brainless follow-up of the US dollar and the US economic system have made Argentina, a country that once envied the world, on the verge of collapse again and again.

So, what are the concerns of these people who advocate private ownership in China and focus on state-owned core assets and industries?

Secondly, the United States' debt risks in each round that will have an indirect but continuous impact on China.

In the environment of economic globalization, if problems arise, then the related impact is inevitable.

The Fed's interest rate cut is often a response to the economic slowdown, which means weaker global demand and impacts export-oriented economies, especially those that rely on raw material exports.

This actually tests the national crisis response and solution capabilities and ways to resolve the crisis.

Finally, China needs to be highly vigilant about the color revolution that Argentina and other similar countries have encountered, from external capital and forces.

How a country can achieve effective control over other countries was invasion and occupation before the 20th century. By invasion by force, it forced it to surrender and plant its own national flag to establish a colony. However, this method has great disadvantages, such as large investment in manpower and material resources, long time, and whether it is difficult to lose his wife and his troops.

Compared with hot wars, there is a more clever way to promote the "peaceful transition" of the regime and be the behind-the-scenes shareholders without bloodshed. This is the color revolution.

The color revolution refers to the revolution in peaceful regime change launched in Central Asia, the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and other countries since the end of the 20th century. It is generally carried out through demonstrations, strikes, public opinion propaganda, etc. The countries that have undergone color revolutions either prevail in the political field and have long been resentful of the people, or have slow development in the economic field, low national living standards, or lack a sense of cultural identity, domestic ideological division, and the main initiators and planners of the American color revolution through color revolution, support pro-American forces to come to power, overthrow the current government, and thus achieve the purpose of controlling the country.

From the perspective of the United States, because China's institutional design and rule logic make it impossible for the United States to directly harvest China from the financial dimension. Therefore, in the face of China's rise, the color revolution is the most ideal strategy.

Some countries that were launched by the United States have continued civil strife and fell into color revolution syndrome. The regime has been repeatedly overthrown and alternated repeatedly, and national development has stagnated;

Some economies are backward, prices rise, and people have difficulty in living;

Some countries are divided and abandoned by the United States, and become international jokes.

History has tried to show China the true face of the United States, but there are still people in China who are lucky enough to try to make trouble with the tiger.

If China cannot be defeated in finance, then it will definitely take action in thought.

You must be guarded.

The country can protect every Chinese, but it also needs more Chinese people to improve their cognition and firmly stand.

This is what people are united and Mount Tai moves.

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Image source: Toutiao Gallery

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The above text comes from the headline account@Panda Beibei Little Cute

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