The three major A-share indexes rose together yesterday, but the market turnover fell to 2.004 trillion yuan, the lowest in the past month. This situation shows that investors' mentality has changed a bit, and uncertain factors in the external environment are still developing, especially the Fed's policy direction has not been accurate. Although the possibility of interest rate cuts has increased, important decisions have not been released for a long time, which has made some funds choose to wait and see and remain unchanged for the time being.
The policy-level observation window period and the financial tension before the holiday have been encountered. The central bank’s reverse repurchase maturity wave has made short-term liquidity pressure even greater. Multiple factors have superimposed together, and the enthusiasm for market transactions has decreased significantly. It should be noted that although the current transaction scale is less than the previous high, it is still maintained at the level of 2 trillion yuan, which shows that the funds have not been completely withdrawn and the market's resilience is still there.
The policy signals emitted after the market need to be paid more attention. Six departments have jointly started a rectification campaign for the automotive industry's network environment, mainly dealing with the problems of illegal marketing and confusion of public opinion. This action may change the competitive situation in the industry. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted in-depth exchanges with key enterprises on the "15th Five-Year Plan", showing the intention to strengthen core technology research and promote the development of the industry towards green and intelligentization. Enterprises in related fields may gain the benefits brought by policies as a result.
Although the short-term market looks a bit tired, technical investors find that the key moving average is still moving towards the bulls, and this inconsistent trend is exactly what the market looks like when the bottom adjustments. Judging from past experience, the end of a real bull market will generally follow the amplification of trading volume and the situation of everyone's panic selling. However, there are neither signs of systemic risks in the market, and there are still many structural opportunities active. Although there are some overseas risk events that need attention this week, if policy stability and the driving force of economic transformation are still the main support points of the market, the opportunity for a technological rebound may appear again on Thursday.
