Suddenly, it was like a night when the spring breeze came, and thousands of pear trees bloomed. Against the backdrop of continuous surge in foreign markets and Chinese stocks, A-shares have not been triggered for two consecutive days, and their volume has quickly shrunk to below 2 trillion yuan. Just when most people think that A-shares will enter a slow bull rhythm, just when they look back, a crazy bull ran out at a 100-meter sprint. The ChiNext hit the high of the year with a record of 5.15% sharp rise in a single day. It also stood above the 3,000 point mark, setting a new high since January 2022. The Shenzhen Component Index also hit a new high this year with an increase of 3.36%. The Shanghai Composite Index is one step away from the new high this year. There is no doubt that the Shanghai Composite Index will hit a new high tomorrow. Technology stocks represented by Yi Zhongtian once again wrote legends, Industrial Fulian and Shenghong Technology set a record high through a big rise or a daily limit. Oracle's surge in a single day stimulated the nerves of A-share technology stocks. More than 4,100 stocks in the entire market rose, 96 hit the daily limit, and the turnover volume reached 2.44 trillion yuan, a full increase of 460 billion yuan compared with yesterday. It is simply a textbook case of "volume and price flying".
The "Three Musketeers of Technology" of semiconductors, AI hardware, and humanoid robots dance wildly. The optical module leader Zhongji Xuchuang and the chip benchmark Inspur took the lead in hitting the daily limit, and the "Yi Zhongtian" combination of institutions and stocks have pushed the ChiNext Index to the sky. Today, foreign capital has no suspense net purchases, and the signal that foreign capital "grabbing China" is directly full. The main domestic investors who have been smashing the market are also crazily sucking in 25 billion. Although the national team funds are still deliberately pressing the market, they cannot withstand the surging buying of domestic and foreign institutions and retail investors. Although we are happy about the market's surge, we are also worried about the market's madness.
The closing price above 3800 points was only 14 days, and the closing price above 3830 points was only 7 days. The turnover was still not enough, and 15-20 trillion yuan of trapped shares were still accumulated at 3830 points-3888 points. I hope that the market can be centered on 3850 points, and repeatedly fluctuate horizontally at 30 points up and down 30 points, continue to clean up profit-making, insist on slow bull markets, and continuously accumulate momentum for the future impact of 3900 points. Do not use the fast bull method to hit 3888 points without the conditions to form a double head to avoid causing greater damage to the market. Maybe my relatively cautious view when the big rises is inappropriate, but I stick to my own operating principles. I cannot predict the changes in the market, but I insist that the underlying logic of the market will not change, and I continue to sell when the big rises. It is never wrong to be down-to-earth and sell flying.
What exactly happened behind the sudden outrage in the face of the market? The pilot reform of factors marketization promoted by the State Council has loosened the 10 core economic circles across the country. The margin financing accounts have exceeded the historical peak of 15.11 million households. In addition, the interest in China's allocation has reached the highest level in three years. The internal and external positive resonance has directly exploded the market sentiment! Next, we will make today's closing reviews, hoping to serve as a reference for your investment:
First, the three major engines of the market's surge: policy, capital, and industrial resonance
To be honest, today is low again, which makes people feel that they can't get up, but opening low is much better than opening high. In fact, yesterday was also low-altitude, and it plunged after pulling up. Today, it opened low but did not plunge. The main reason was the change in volume. When the price rose in the morning, it was significantly different from the volume and price divergence after yesterday's opening. In the end, the increase in volume was getting bigger and bigger, from the 3.6% increase in volume in half an hour to the closing of 23.23%. In addition, the main domestic capital is also inflowing in net, how can the market not rise? Of course, the confidence in going long is due to the stimulus of the news, and the sharp rise in the market is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.
1. Policy east wind: reform pilot + fiscal expectations two-pronged approach
The 10 market-oriented pilot projects of factors approved by the State Council cover key areas such as Beijing, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Chengdu and Chongqing, and directly "demolition of walls" for factors such as land, labor, capital, etc., which is equivalent to installing an accelerator for local economy. In addition, the "14th Five-Year Plan" fiscal reform press conference will be held tomorrow, and the market's expectations for tax cuts and fee reductions and new infrastructure investment will be fully raised, and funds "bet" on policy dividends in advance.
2. Funding: Three armies of financing + foreign capital + domestic capital gathered
Leveraged funds went crazy: a new 180,000 yuan financing account opened in August, which increased by nearly 4 times year-on-year, and the balance of 2000 yuan financing broke the record. Retail investors and institutions are "borrowing money to trade stocks", indicating that the market's risk preference has completely reversed.
Foreign capital attack: More than 90% of American investors in Morgan Stanley report want to increase their holdings in China.
Domestic capital awakening: The main capital rarely buys 25 billion yuan, and the three sectors of optical chip, 5G, and CPO have attracted nearly 100 billion yuan, and there are obvious signs of institutions "recovering their positions".
3. Industrial catalyst: AI computing power + Tesla robot ignites the fuse
Computing power arms race: OpenAI spent $300 billion to buy Oracle computing power, and TSMC's revenue increased by 34% in August, directly verifying that the demand for AI chips exploded.
Countdown to mass production of humanoid robots: Tesla Optimus V3 design ended, the smart upgrade triggered Zhaowei Mechanical and Electrical, Xinshida, and the funds bet on the trillion-dollar track of "machine generation".
Summary: Policy releases the dividends of reform, the capital side has "three-way meeting", and the two major industries of AI and robots are superimposed, so it is difficult for the market not to rise!
Second, why can't technology stocks be beaten to death? Two major logics support Chang Niu
The fundamental reason why "Yi Zhongtian" can continue to strengthen is the performance fulfillment + double-click of domestic substitution:
1. Performance certainty crushes the entire market
Taipei Met's Q3 revenue is expected to increase by 25%, Oracle Cloud's business signing surges, AI computing power has changed from "story" to "money printing machine", and institutions dare to spend real money. For example, Inspur's net profit increased by 40% in the first half of the year. With the domestic computing power order, the stock price will naturally be confident. Of course, some people are worried about their performance being overdrawn, but yesterday the institution gave Yi Zhongtian a higher premium.
2. Domestic substitution is imminent
The US's increased chip blockade on China has forced the rise of domestic supply chains. The photoresist's Tongcheng New Materials and the packaging and testing of Shen Technology have increased in volume and price recently, and funds have made breakthroughs in the field of betting on "bottlenecks".
How do investors follow? Focus on two indicators:
Changes in institutional holdings: The top 10 votes in the main net inflow (Haiguang Information, Luxshare Precision, etc.) are all leaders in technology, and the direction of institutions' "grouping" is clear.
Industrial policy trend: Next week's Huawei's full connection conference and Tesla robot press conference are all potential catalysts, and the "event-driven" winning rate is higher.
Summary: Technology stocks are not blind speculation, but the result of industrial trends + policy protection, but don’t chase highs! It is safer to wait until it falls back to the moving average before intervening.
Third. How to go tomorrow? The key is to look at three signals
Predict: oscillation and differentiation, the main line of technology remains unsuccessful
Bonus: The volume has reached 2.4 trillion, indicating that incremental funds have entered the market; the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and foreign capital will not change when it goes long on Chinese assets.
Badministrative: Templeton shares, which has been on the 11-game board, are locked in a small dark room, and high-priced stocks may cool down; the Federal Reserve's interest rate settlement tonight will disturb foreign capital sentiment.
Operation suggestions:
Main line is in charge: semiconductor (SMIC, Northern Huachuang), AI computing power (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng) is still the core, and a callback is an opportunity.
Secondary lines are surprising: Satellite Internet (China Satellite Communications, Huali Chuangtong), and new energy vehicles (BYD, CATL) are catalysis, but don’t have too heavy positions.
Summary: The index is likely to fluctuate at a high level, but the leading technology leaders will always be strong. Don’t be afraid of bumps and hold on to the main line!
Written at the end: Only by enduring loneliness can you maintain prosperity
Today's surge caused many people to break their thighs: "I had known that I had done a full position!" But investment has never been faster than who can move faster, but who can see far. No one was interested in the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2019. After the first wave of AI hype in 2023, the people who truly defended chips and optical modules finally had the last laugh today.
Remember two sentences:
"Don't use tactical diligence to cover up strategic laziness" - choosing the right track is more important than watching the market every day.
"Greed when others are afraid, calm when others are greedy" - Today institutional funds are buying wildly, but if you are holding theme stocks that follow the trend, stop profits if you should stop profits.
The most dangerous thing in a bull market is "thinking that you are the stock god." Set a discipline for yourself: if you rise too much, you must reduce your position, if you fall too much, you dare to increase your position, and if you fall too much, you must stay awake and be drunk, so that you can live longer than others.
