Polish soldiers are patrolling after Russian drones invaded Polish airspace during their attack on Ukraine. Photography: Casper Pember/Reuters

Less than a month ago, European leaders also discussed Ukraine's peace roadmap with Donald Trump at the White House. However, by Wednesday, the Polish prime minister warned that the prospect of a massive military conflict was "closer than at any time since World War II."

The background of this remark is that Vladimir Putin is implementing his plan - he has allowed more than a dozen drones to fly into Polish airspace. This is the closest war to the heartland of Europe, and it is also the first time that NATO countries have been involved in direct military operations since the outbreak of the Ukrainian War in 2022.

Dan Sabbagh, defense and security editor of the Guardian, said Russia's move seemed to be a test of whether it could instigate discord between Ukraine, Europe and the United States. Here we explore Russia's calculations and its potential impact on NATO.

Polish police inspected the drone wreckage near Chesniki. Photo source: Polsat News/Reuters

"A huge test of NATO's determination and political will"

19 Russian drones invaded Polish airspace from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. The Dutch Air Force urgently dispatched F-35 fighter jets to shoot them down. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius pointed out that Russian drones that violated Polish airspace "apparently this route was set" and "there is no need to fly this route to Ukraine."

Although Polish airspace has been violated many times since the outbreak of the war, this is the first incident of such a scale in NATO and the East Flank of the EU. Dan Sabag analyzed: "So far, only sporadic missiles or drones have occasionally entered the territory of NATO countries - mainly Poland."

"But this is undoubtedly a major provocation, deliberate. This is a huge test of NATO's determination and political will, and it is definitely an escalation of the war."

On Wednesday morning, the Polish armed forces said it was continuing to search for possible crash sites and urged people not to approach, touch or move any suspicious objects because they could contain dangerous substances. It is reported that one of the drones crashed in a field near Mniszków after flying about 300 kilometers in Poland. Flights at Warsaw Chopin Airport were also suspended for several hours.

Aim to fight

Dan Sabag believes that this incident shows that Russia is testing Europe's determination: if NATO's reaction is inconsistent with the United States, Russia may take the opportunity to create more trouble.

He said: "It's all about provoking, creating fear, intensifying confrontation and inciting separatism." "In the past three and a half years, Russia has shown that it is quite cautious about NATO. It has not really provoked NATO countries. The outside world had feared that conflict could spill over—even in the cyber realm—but it has not happened. And now, we suddenly see a major event like this."

The incident happened less than a month after Donald Trump and Putin held a summit in Alaska, when news came that the Kremlin was preparing to reach a peace agreement.

Just three days ago, Russia launched its largest air strike on Ukraine since the war began, and hit a major government building in Kiev for the first time. Sabag analyzed: "This shows that no matter what progress has been made in the Alaska talks, its impact has not continued. After the Alaska talks, we experienced a relative calm period of about 10 days. It seems that Trump had made a brief effort to convince Ukraine to give up more territory. But when all this effort ended ineffective, we are seeing a fairly rapid escalation of the situation on Russia."

At the meeting of five defense ministers in London, attended by France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Poland, British Defense Secretary John Healey said: "We are facing an era full of new threats. The war in Europe rekindled and Russia's aggressiveness grew. Last night, Putin's hostility towards Europe reached a new height."

What is Putin's game plan?

Dan Sabag pointed out that Russia has invested more than 600,000 troops in Ukraine to engage in ground warfare, but there are heavy casualties and little progress. It is estimated that since the war broke out in February 2022, the Russian army has suffered more than 1 million casualties. The conflict has brought continued losses to the Russian people, with domestic inflation rate as high as 9.5%.

Sabag said: "Russia does not have the ability to launch a full-scale war against Poland or NATO. Doing that would be reckless and stupid for the Kremlin." "But if NATO does not respond in some way, or does not impose further economic sanctions, then there is no doubt that we will see more drones 'accidentally' flying into NATO airspace."

Dan Sabag also believes that the move may indicate that Russia feels that US support for Ukraine is shaken or full of uncertainty. "The Kremlin doesn't think it's doing some suicide mission. It feels very confident now, as if it can cause trouble in Eastern Europe." He added, "My question is, after Putin returned from Alaska, does he think Trump is not concerned about NATO, especially about aiding Ukraine?"

Sabag believes that the United States may ultimately face two choices: one is to intervene deeper in European affairs (which Trump is reluctant to do), and the other is to put pressure on Ukraine to reach a certain peace agreement on Russian terms to end the war and prevent it from spreading. "I don't have a clear answer, but the goal of this operation may be to make people realize that the Ukrainian war is fundamentally destabilizing Eastern Europe."

The White House said Trump will speak to the Polish president. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker reiterated his support for Warsaw. “In the face of these airspace violations, we stand with our NATO allies and will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

What actions will NATO take?

Poland has requested NATO to initiate article 4 of the North Atlantic Convention. This provision provides that when the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any member State is threatened, the State Party shall conduct joint consultations. Article 4 has been cited seven times since the founding of NATO in 1949.

Poland's move is not a minor matter because it opens up the possibility of triggering a higher level clause, namely Article 5.

The core principle of Article 5 is "collective defense", that is, an attack on a member state should be regarded as an attack on all member states. Dan Sabag pointed out: "Article 5 has only been launched once in history: that is, after the 9/11 incident, it was launched at the request of the United States." Since Ukraine is not a NATO member state, the outbreak of the war in February 2022 did not trigger Article 5, but the outside world has always been worried that the war will spread to neighboring NATO countries.

At present, NATO member states are conducting consultations under Article 4, but it is not clear whether the consultation will lead to the formal decision to initiate Article 5. There is no time limit for such consultations.

Dan Sabag analyzed that regardless of the final result, Russia's move is likely to gain more support for Poland, such as strengthening air alert, deploying more air defense systems, increasing patrols in the Nordic-Baltic region, and even involving warship mobilization. He added: "It's obvious that many military deployments are just a signaling, right? It's actually just saying 'back'."