Test the negative quality, the bigger the expectation difference, the bigger the chance!

After the index high, the funds did not inspire high prices, but instead ushered in a wave of concentrated cashing, and the differences between bulls and bears in the market increased!

The three major stock indexes rose and fell in the morning and then bottomed out and rebounded, with significantly intensified the amplitude. More than 3,000 stocks in the two markets were green, and the overall sentiment was not good.

If you want to build a good market in the current market, you need more reverse thinking!

Traditional black Thursday, the index rose sharply, and individual stocks rose generally.

On the red Friday, the index surged and fell, and individual stocks generally fell.

If you can't walk correctly, the sense of gain is really bad!

Fortunately, the market is fully resilient now, and the trading volume is relatively abundant, and the afternoon index still has expectations of continuing to fluctuate upward.

If the index closes higher today, the market will continue the slow bull rhythm of "Friday + Monday" rise.

If the index closes down today, the short-term rhythm will be disrupted, and high-level divergence requires some appropriate defense.

Next, focus on the 20-day line support, as long as it does not fall below the index will continue to rise.

The Federal Reserve should officially start a cycle of interest rate cuts next week. At that time, we are expected to usher in more incremental policies. The future market will remain optimistic, and looking long and going long is still the main theme.

But in the short term, you should pay attention to the rhythm, and do not be too radical in operation, and pay attention to the rotation opportunities between sector switching.

01.

The State Council agreed to carry out a pilot reform of the comprehensive allocation of 10 factors within two years from now on.

At the same time, the National Data Administration will also support pilot areas to explore new data circulation and transaction models, establish a data security governance system, and promote high-quality development and high-level safe and benign interaction.

Stimulated by the news, the direction of data elements in the early trading was active, with Yihualu and Cape Cloud rising by more than 10%, and Tefa Information and Runjian shares hit the daily limit, with high recognition of funds.

With the breakthrough of domestic computing power and algorithm equality, under the empowerment of AI, it is expected to give full play to the data advantages, build high-quality data sets, and fully activate the application of production, manufacturing, trade and circulation, government affairs and other scenarios.

The market-oriented allocation of factors allows the market to determine prices, which can not only improve resource utilization efficiency and optimize economic structure, but also stimulate the innovation vitality of all walks of life and ultimately increase public revenue.

As the gradual improvement of relevant rules and regulations on government data circulation, localities have strengthened the pilot project of marketization of data elements, and industrial development is expected to accelerate. You can continue to track opportunities in the direction of data elements, smart government affairs, etc.

02.

Oriental's performance guidance beyond expectations and its strong performance in stock prices injected a shot in the computing power hardware.

CPO, PCB and other directions have returned strongly. A number of core varieties such as Industrial Fulian, Shenghong Technology, and Tengjing Technology have set new record highs, quickly activate market bullish popularity and completely reshape sector confidence.

The scale of cloud service market at home and abroad has grown rapidly, and capital expenditures of giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have increased significantly, competing for cloud computing market share.

China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that the global cloud computing market size reached US$692.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.3%. After entering 2025, the growth rate of the cloud computing market will further expand.

In the short term, you can continue to track the direction of computing power hardware. Compared with optical modules, circuit boards and other components, Qi Ge suggested focusing on paying attention to the direction of domestic cloud computing. The current valuation is low, and there may be more room for compensation in the future.

Yesterday, Zhu Xiaohu, partner of Jinshajiang Venture Capital, said at the Bund Conference that AI will usher in huge opportunities in the application level next year. Chinese AI companies have huge advantages in industrial chains and ecology, and differentiated "product power" is expected to stand out.

Although funds are still holding on to the computing power hardware at the moment, in Qi Ge's opinion, the cost-effectiveness of chasing the rise here is no longer high, and it is not as good as AI applications that are lurking relatively low.

Both Oracle and Applovin have proved that the performance of AI applications is rapidly being implemented. With the acceleration of computing power infrastructure, AI applications are tending to explode nodes.

In the short term, the AI ​​application direction will continue to be hidden at low prices. Once the opportunity comes, the rebound market will start.

03.

After the market trading market, it was reported that Internet platforms and central state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong may be absent from the first batch of stablecoin license applications in Hong Kong, and the news has attracted high attention from the market.

Many people interpret it as negative at first glance, believing that the advancement of stablecoins is hindered and there is no longer room for imagination in the short term.

This view is actually biased. Internet giants such as Alibaba and JD.com are completely clear about the absence of the first batch of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong.

After all, there are only 2-3 stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, and foreign institutions such as Standard Chartered should also be considered. In addition to Bank of China and Hong Kong, Chinese institutions have a high probability of winning cards, but other Chinese institutions have little chance of winning cards. This itself is within the market expectations.

So there is no need to over-interpret the news about the first batch of licenses. The Hong Kong Stable Coin Ordinance officially came into effect on August 1. This is an established fact. Qi Ge believes that it is impossible to give up halfway through the implementation of Hong Kong Stable Coin.

The overall feedback of digital currency in the early trading was not bad, but because the popularity core performance of Hengbao Co., Ltd., Dongxin Heping and other popular core performance was poor, the sector lacked driving force.

" Learning Times" released "Technical Principles and Trust Logic of Stablecoins" yesterday, which is a signal worth savoring.

The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Indonesia jointly launched a bilateral trading local currency settlement framework and a cooperation project for QR code interconnection.

The management is still orderly strengthening the international influence of the digital RMB. Qi Ge recommends continuing to track stablecoins and focusing on digital currencies and cross-border payment directions in the short term.

Beijing North, the company has participated in the construction of payment and settlement systems of many banks, including assisting some customers in accessing the SWIFT system and CIPS system, and has relevant technology and talent reserves.