After A-shares hit a new high! Will the market dive in the afternoon if it is "reverse and pick up people" or "pull up and lure more".

Although A-shares have repeatedly set new intraday highs during the trading session today, the market atmosphere has not heated up simultaneously, retail investors' willingness to participate is sluggish, and the number of rising and falling companies has always shown a confrontation pattern.

This morning, the A-share market once again staged a shocking scene: the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high of 3888.60 during the session, setting a new high in the stage. However, behind this seemingly strong new high is the bleak situation of more than 3,000 stocks falling.

The net outflow of main funds once expanded to 35 billion yuan, and the market showed a typical "pull up and lure more". Many investors began to wonder: Is this another opportunity to "reverse the car and pick up people", or is it a trap for the main force to raise the shipment?

01 Morning battle situation, index highs cannot conceal the fatigue of individual stocks

In the early trading on Friday, the three major A-share indexes rose and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.01% higher at 3875.51 points, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 0.30% lower, and the ChiNext Index opened 0.97% lower.

After the opening, the index fluctuated upward under the pull of heavy stocks, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high of 3888.60 points during the session, setting a new high of 3892 points. However, behind this index boom is the general decline of individual stocks.

As of the midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3884.71 points, up 0.24%; the Shenzhen Component Index was 12999.45 points, up 0.15%; the ChiNext Index was 3037.83 points, down 0.52%. More than 3,000 stocks fell in the two markets, with a turnover of 1648.7 billion, a volume of 152.6 billion compared with yesterday.

02 Funding trends, the net outflow of the main force has confirmed that it will pull up and lure many

The index high this morning was essentially not of effective technical significance, but was more inclined to the operational scope of the main force's "pull up and lure more".

From the perspective of capital, the net outflow of main A-share funds reached 15.8 billion yuan in the first hour of opening. Among them, the net outflow of the two-way financing sector was 13.1 billion yuan, becoming the main direction for capital withdrawal.

As the close of midday trading, the net outflow of main funds in the two markets once expanded to 35 billion yuan. In order to maintain the closing price of the afternoon, there was a significant protection action around 11:20, and the net outflow of funds narrowed to 32.1 billion yuan.

The essence of this operation is "the main force sells and buys by itself", creating false strength by first suppressing and then pulling up, trying to make retail investors feel the illusion of "restarting a bull market."

03 Sector differentiation, precious metals rise and technology pullback

From the performance of the sector, the market differentiation is extremely obvious. The non-ferrous metals sector rose during the session, with many stocks such as Shengda Resources, Yuguang Gold and Lead, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. The precious metals sector rose strongly, with spot silver rising intraday expanding to 1% to $42 per ounce, hitting a new high since September 2011.

The semiconductor sector performed actively, with Xinyuan Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit of 20cm and Demingli hitting the daily limit. The memory chip concept strengthened, Cape Cloud rose by more than 13%, and many stocks such as Juguang Technology, Jingzhida, and Xingsen Technology rose.

In terms of decline, the liquor sector fell, while Jiugui Liquor and Shede Liquor ranked first. The solid-state battery sector adjusted, Delong Laser and Naconor led the decline; the game sector pulled back, and Youzu Network ranked the top in the decline.

04 Securities sector has become the main control tool

In the context of shrinking volume, the main force can only rely on heavyweight stocks to push the index, and the securities sector is the current core "control instrument".

The market trend this morning was completely revolving around the fluctuations in the securities sector. The linkage surge in the morning: the securities sector rose at 9:43, driving the market to reach 3389 points; the securities sector made another effort at 10:27, and the market simultaneously refreshed to 3891 points.

However, after 10:30, the main force's first-hour counter-revolution operation ended, the securities sector was the first to plunge, and the market then quickly fell to 3880 points, and the number of companies in the two markets fell instantly increased to more than 3800.

After 11 points, the securities index once again raised its head, and the market rebounded after a rapid plunge. This trend law shows that there are obvious signs of the main force manipulating the index through the securities sector.

05 Market dilemma, the main retail investors play their own games

The biggest problem with A-shares at present is that the market popularity cannot be activated, and the second-tier main players are trapped in a one-man show of "self-direction and self-acting".

In order to attract funds to enter the market, the main force frequently creates "slight new highs" (only 1 point higher than the previous high), which is exactly the same as the operations of the main force in March-May last year.

Because over-the-counter funds are unwilling to take over at a high level, the main force can only turn to the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which has low retail participation, and conduct "sending flowers among the main force", further highlighting the market's dilemma of lack of incremental funds.

The market shows a dislocation pattern of "retail investors are looking forward to bull market and the main players are looking forward to taking over". The main force controls heavyweight stocks such as banks, oil, and insurance, while the second-tier main force focuses on high-priced technology stocks such as CATL and Cambrian.

Retail investors not only avoided the heavyweight stocks of the major players, but were also excluded from the high-priced stocks of the second-tier main players, making it difficult to share the dividends of the index rise.

06 Retail investors are in dilemma, making money in the index.

Although the index has repeatedly set new highs, the actual experience of most retail investors is that they are "making money from earning the index", and they are even in losses.

Behind this "bull market frustration" is the serious separation between individual stocks and indexes. Many stocks have been trading sideways for a long time since the decline in late August and even continued to weaken.

Investors reported that the individual stocks they hold have fallen for 18 consecutive trading days since August 21. After catching up at a high level, they have only fluctuated by 1 cent up and down in recent trading days. The current loss has reached 13% - this phenomenon is by no means an isolated case.

Retail investors who entered the market after National Day last year, after cutting their losses, most of them believed in the words of "high dividends and dividends" to buy bank stocks in July, and are now in a trap.

Even if technology stocks are leading the rise, these retail investors are likely to be unable to chase the rise and can only wait for the bank stocks to get rid of the condom and further lose market initiative.

07 Over the afternoon outlook, continue the oscillation cycle pattern

Combining the morning capital trend, sector control logic and market structure, A-shares will continue the cycle pattern of "securities lift-net outflow of funds-large market plunge-re-re-outflow" in the afternoon.

There is a high probability that there will be a small protection action in the late trading to maintain the strong surface index. The probability of a sharp face-changing decline is relatively low.

From a technical perspective, the market fell back to the high of 3731 points in February 2021 on September 4. Although a rebound was not enough to make the foundation unstable, as long as the market does not fall below 3400 points, A-shares will still be a medium-term upward trend.

Foreign institutions are still optimistic about A-shares. Goldman Sachs said that global hedge funds net buying on China's stock market in August hit a new high since September 2024.

Morgan Stanley said Thursday that U.S. investors' interest in Chinese stocks is reaching its highest level in five years and their pace of returning to the Chinese market has just "started."

08 Investment strategy, flexibly respond to the current market

Overall, investors need to be clear about the essence of the current "reduced volume and new high". You should actively reduce your return expectations based on your own holdings, avoid blindly cutting losses in panic, and do not impulsively chase high hot spots.

If you have fallen into deep traps, you should rationally evaluate the quality of the position target. If there are still idle positions, you need to focus on being vigilant about the risks of tempting long positions for the main force, not be confused by short-term index fluctuations, and do not blindly follow the trend and chase high-level varieties.

In the current market structure with repeated fluctuations, the sentence "Don't be dead bulls, don't be dead bears, be a happy slippery head" in the investment market may be more in line with the current response logic - neither obsessed with the obsession of "a bull market will rise" nor fall into the anxiety of "a bear market will fall".

For medium- and long-term investors, the structural market may be interpreted until October. The opening of the U.S. rate cut window period, the RMB is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there are no major changes in geopolitical economic and trade recently. The anti-internal volume continues to support the recovery of prices, and the recovery of M1 growth under the deposit moving narrative are all important support for the market's future strengthening.

As of the midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3884.71 points, up 0.24%; the Shenzhen Component Index was 12999.45 points, up 0.15%; the ChiNext Index was 3037.83 points, down 0.52%.

The market transaction volume reached 1648.7 billion, an increase of 152.6 billion from yesterday. However, the essence can be seen better from the trends of the main capital this week: the main force above 3800 points is always in a state of "passive maintenance".

This combination of "inflow of funds to protect the market + short-term increase in futures" is not so optimistic about the future market, but rather short-term emergency operations of the main institutions. In the afternoon, investors need to be wary of the risk of rising and falling.

If sharing maple leaves is helpful to you, remember to like ➞ Follow~ Your like is the driving force for the continuous sharing of maple leaves