The currency gate is about to open. Is your wallet ready?
"The probability of interest rate cut in September is 99.4%!" This set of data is causing storms in the global market. The Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China may cut interest rates simultaneously, and an unprecedented "super easing" is coming - but this time, experts are blushing.
Watch the bulls cheered: The biggest wave of funds in history is here! "This will be the best money-making opportunity since 2020." Private equity fund manager Li Mingyang said bluntly, "Once the central bank opens the gate and releases water, the stock market, housing market, and commodities will rise."
Data shows that in the past five Fed rate cut cycles, the probability of gold rising by more than 80%, and US stocks rose by an average of 4.7% in three months after the rate cut. What is even more exciting is that in the first two global easing periods (2008 and 2020), Beijing's housing prices rose by more than 30%, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 50%!
Warning the patience: This time it is completely different! "People who blindly chase high prices will become the last buyer." Independent economist Wang Rui pointed out, "This is not a crisis-style rescue, but a preventive cooling. Once the economic data improves, the water release will stop immediately."
The most worrying thing is: asset prices have soared ahead of schedule! Gold has risen by more than 5% since August, and A-share real estate stocks collectively hit the daily limit within a week - the positive news has long been overdrawn.
▶ Where will the money go? Three major controversial focus
Controversy 1: Can gold still be chased?
·Bully: interest rate cuts → US dollar depreciates → gold must rise
· Warning: Gold prices have hit record highs, retail investors are giving away rice by chasing highs
Controversy 2: Can the real estate market come back to life?
·Bully-looking: lower interest rates and reduce mortgage costs, first-tier cities will rebound
· Warning: population decline + oversupply, it is difficult to change the downward trend even if it is stimulated.
Controversy 3: Will A-shares soar?
·Bully-minded: liquidity improvement + favorable policies, the starting point of the bull market has arrived
· Warning: Corporate profits are still falling, and the rebound is just a flash in the pan
▶ Cruel truth: The difference in information between elites and retail investors. Data shows that since August:
· Institutional investors reduce their holdings of gold ETFs by more than 5 billion yuan
· Major shareholders of listed companies have reduced their holdings by more than 20 billion yuan
· Northbound funds flowed over 10 billion yuan against the trend
1. Where are the opportunities for ordinary people?
1. Avoid blindly chasing highs and already skyrocketing assets
2. Pay attention to interest rate-sensitive industries (consumption, technology)
3. Global allocation hedging risk (Asia-Pacific market, European assets)
4. Maintain cash liquidity and wait for the opportunity of gold pit
History tells us: monetary easing will not create wealth, it will only transfer wealth. This time, are you transferred or the transferred object?
Instead of guessing market trends, it is better to make good asset allocation. Leave enough cash, diversify investment, and stay rational - after all, when the tide recedes, you know who is swimming naked.
