As a small spoiler, when China and the United States were about to discuss tariffs and TikTok in Spain on the weekend, their hands were shaking. This matter directly concerns whether A-shares can reach 4,000 points next week. I just bought Luxshare Precision and Brokerage ETF last week, so I can't sleep at the news.
First talk about when and what: From September 14 to 17, the Chinese and American teams will meet. The key points are two: tariffs and technological restrictions. On the tariff side, most of the 125% tariff imposed by the United States has been cut off, and the remaining 10% are still under discussion. If it can be cut again, export companies such as home appliances and electronics will definitely laugh. Historical data says that tariffs are loose, and these stocks can rise by 15% on average. Let’s look at technology again. If the TikTok ban and chip restrictions are loosened, the semiconductor and AI computing power sectors will be exciting again. After signing the first phase of the agreement in 2020, semiconductors rose by 20% in three months. If it exceeds expectations this time, it may be possible to have a surge in daily limit.
But smart money has already started to do it. Financial stocks such as securities companies and insurance are now pitifully low. The average stock price of securities companies is only 1.8 times PB, and even foreign capital has begun to buy leading liquor and home appliances. The Hong Kong stock market is even more exaggerated. Oceanwide Real Estate soared 15% in a day, Sunac tripled from the bottom, and pharmaceutical stocks such as WuXi Biotechnology also rose. There are also cross-border e-commerce companies such as SHEIN, which have more exports to the United States, and if the tariffs are cut, they will definitely make more money.
But what if the talk fails? The hunter said don't panic, history has proved that the market rebounded retaliatoryly after every talk collapsed. Now the A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 price-earnings ratio is only 14 times, and there is limited room for decline. If it really goes bad, the country may issue special bonds or loosen real estate policies, and infrastructure stocks such as cement and building materials can take over.
As a small scattered person, what should we do now? If you have more money, you can buy the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF to diversify risks. Those with less money should focus on several directions: Luxshare Precision tariff cancellation can directly increase profits, Anker Innovation's revenue is abroad, and Hengrui Medicine has more authorized cooperation overseas.
Finally, two possibilities are discussed. If tariffs cut and technology loosen, A-shares will definitely hit 4,000 points, and securities companies and AI computing power will lead the rise, referring to the 2020 market trend. If the agreement cannot be reached, the market will fluctuate in the short term, but policies will come out to save the company. Infrastructure and real estate stocks will take the banner, and Yangtze Power, which has high dividends, can avoid risks.
I am afraid of making trouble before the US election, but A-shares are now cheap and policy support will definitely rise in the long run. I bought Luxshare and Brokerage ETFs last week, and even if I wandered around in the short term, I planned to take them. The news in the bull market is good. Anyway, I can only wait now, and it depends on the results of the negotiations next week. I hope I won’t be repeatedly raising them like in 2018.
