China launches the "Space Shield" program. How can asteroid impact tests leverage sensitive nerves in the West?
In 2030, China will use a spacecraft to crash into an asteroid at high speed - this is not a science fiction movie plot, but a planetary defense mission announced by China's Deep Space Exploration Laboratory. In the eyes of Chinese scientists, this impact is not only a "space shield" to protect the earth, but also a "stepbrake" to start the asteroid mining era. But Western strategic analysts read another meaning from it: China is challenging the "planetary defense dominance" monopoly of the United States.
Academician Wu Weiren, chief designer of China's lunar exploration project, revealed at the Tiandu Forum in early September that China will launch an asteroid kinetic impact test mission as early as this year. The plan is to adopt the "dual spacecraft mode": one is used as an impactor to crash into the target asteroid at a speed of several kilometers per second; the other is used as an observer to record the orbital deflection amount, surface material eruption and other data at the moment of impact at close range.
This is not the first time that humans have tried to hit an asteroid. In September 2022, NASA's DART mission successfully hit the Dimofus asteroid, shortening its orbital period by 32 minutes. However, the design of the Chinese solution is more complicated: the observer needs to arrive near the target in advance for feature mapping, and it will continue to monitor for several months after the impact, so as to accurately evaluate the deflection effect.
Technical bottleneck: How to hit the "space fly" tens of millions of kilometers away?
Shanghai Observatory researcher Tang Zhenghong used a vivid metaphor: "It's like trying to slap a fly tens of millions of kilometers away, and the fly and swagger are moving at high speed." The mission faces three core challenges:
Ultralong precision guidance: the spacecraft needs to fly for several years and continuously adjust the orbit, and finally achieve impact accuracy within tens of meters for a target that is only a few hundred meters wide;
Asteroid composition uncertainty: The target may be solid rock or loose rubble piles. The former may only produce slight thrust, while the latter may be knocked apart and even produce uncontrollable fragments;
Effect evaluation system: It is necessary to establish a joint monitoring network of heaven and earth (including China's compound eye radar touchdown, Lenghu telescope, etc.) to calculate the effect of reverse thrust impact through high-speed imaging and orbit.
Although China emphasizes the scientific goals of the mission, international observers have noticed its potential military value. Anonymous Chinese expert Captain Jack pointed out that kinetic energy impactor technology can be directly converted into anti-satellite capabilities, while precision tracking technology supports surveillance and strikes on orbital targets. What is more noteworthy is that the mission time was shortly after the military parade on China Victory Day on September 3, and the West therefore determined the relationship between the plan and the national defense system.
Mike Turner, chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, warned about the development of China's anti-space capabilities as early as February 2024. The 2022 report of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence clearly states that China's anti-satellite weapons and land-based lasers are "significant threats" to US space assets.
Why does it touch the Western nerves?
Western anxiety stems from triple subversion:
Transfer of technological hegemony: If China takes the lead in mastering mature kinetic energy impact technology, it will break the United States' monopoly position in the field of active defense in space;
Strategic Narrative Competition: Planetary Defense has always been shaped by the West as a "savior narrative", and the United States has strengthened its image as a "human protector" through DART missions. China's mission directly enters this field, which means that the dispute over space leadership has escalated from competition for resources to competition for moral commanding heights;
Space Economic Position: China plans to achieve propulsion deflection test by 2035 and fully master orbital technology by 2045 - this coincides with the maturity period of the asteroid mining industry. Whoever masters orbital control technology will control the trillion-level space economy entrance.
Moon and Mars exploration: Chang'e's lunar exploration project has mastered key technologies such as remote operation of extraterrestrial celestial bodies, precise obstacle avoidance landing, and complex orbital design. The Tianwen-1 Mars exploration mission successfully achieved Mars orbit, landing and patrol, and verified ultra-long-distance measurement and control communication technology.
Tianwen-2 asteroid sampling and return mission: Tianwen-2, which was successfully launched in May this year, aims to achieve "company flight, sample, return". The technologies involved in this process include close-range companion observation, high-precision autonomous control, and intersection with irregular and weak gravitational bodies, which are all direct technical preparations for asteroid impact missions.
Timely perception and early warning of potential threats are the prerequisites for asteroid defense, and China also has a strong foundation.
Institutions such as the Purple Mountain Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have built near-Earth telescopes, dedicated to the discovery and monitoring of near-Earth asteroids.
China is building the "China Compound Eye" radar project, aiming to form high-precision observation and imaging capabilities for tiny space targets, which is crucial to accurately determine the orbit, morphology and rotational state of the target asteroid.
The asteroid impact mission faces many technical bottlenecks, and China has carried out technical reserves and verifications through multiple tasks:
One is ultra-long-range precision guidance and control: ensure that the impactor can still hit the target with extremely high accuracy (expected to be within a few dozen meters) after flying tens of millions of kilometers.
The second is high-speed reentry and return technology: Chang'e-5 and Tianwen-2 sampling and return missions have verified the high-speed reentry and return technology.
Three-orbital computing and dynamics model: The task team needs to rely on supercomputers to simulate thousands of scenarios, and comprehensively consider various complex factors such as solar radiation pressure and asteroid irregular gravitational fields.
Chinese scientists have no secret of their long-term goal: asteroid resource development. Shandong writer Hua Jian pointed out that asteroids rich in rare metals such as platinum and iridium will be the "strategic granary" of the future space industry. Academician Wu Weiren even bluntly stated that the mission is "suitable for international cooperation" and has invited more than 40 countries to participate in monitoring - this is not only a soft counterattack against the "space threat theory" and an important step in building a deep space cooperation network led by China.
Faced with the current situation of the US technology blockade against China ("The United States will not share asteroid defense technology with us"), China is overtaking on the curve with independent innovation. As a Chinese aerospace expert said: "We cannot rely on others when it comes to issues involving the future of mankind."
A hit asteroid will become a touchstone for testing the quality of China's deep space technology, and will also become a scale for measuring the change of space power between China and the United States. The dual attributes of scientific exploration and strategic game are the most prominent features of space competition in the new era.
