From tulips to Labubu, there are bubble carnivals for generations.
In June 2025, Labubu reached its peak in popularity and price:
The whole blind box, which was originally priced at 594 yuan, was once speculated to nearly 3,000 yuan in the second-hand market, and the hidden "I" with original price of 99 yuan, was speculated to nearly 5,000 yuan, with a premium of nearly 50 times.
Internationally, Labubu is also very popular.
The Thai princess stopped showing off Labubu on Hermes, Korean consumers lined up all night to buy it, and even a fight occurred at the British rush to buy it.
However, just two months later, Labubu's price collapsed across the board.
The whole box of Labubu 3.0 series, which was once speculated to nearly 3,000 yuan, can be purchased for only more than 600 yuan, with a drop of more than 76%.
The hidden model of "self" that costs nearly 5,000 yuan also fell to more than 700 yuan, a drop of up to 86%.
Labubu's popularity is no accident.
This weird and cute little monster, with its unique design and precise marketing, has quickly changed from a niche toy to a global pursuit.
In early June 2025, many international celebrities posted photos of wearing Labubu on social media, directly pushing it to the peak of popularity.
In South Korea, consumers have to queue up all night to buy Labubu, resulting in Pop Mart having to suspend local offline sales.
In Japan, there are also long queues outside the stores. In the UK, a fight occurred at the rush to buy, and the store was forced to suspend its sale.
The scalpers quickly smelled the business opportunity.
They stock up in large quantities, raise prices, and create a tense atmosphere of "hard to find a baby".
This madness began to collapse on the evening of June 18, 2025.
That day, Pop Mart suddenly replenished the Labubu 3.0 series on a large scale, with the omni-channel delivery volume expected to reach 4 million to 5 million pieces.
The sudden surge in supply instantly broke the market's supply and demand balance.
Labubu 3.0 whole box price fell from 2,100 yuan to around 1,000 yuan, and the hidden "self" dropped sharply from a high of 4,621 yuan to between 2,000-2,851 yuan.
The price of ordinary models collapsed very fiercely. Taking the "loyalty" model as an example, its average transaction price fell from 341 yuan to about 120 yuan, almost "cut in half".
Scalpers had to announce the suspension of the acquisition of the Labubu series, waiting for the market to stabilize.
A scalper admitted: "It's not a question of whether to receive the goods or not, it's no one to take over."
The mentality of the player community has also changed. Many people on Xiaohongshu spontaneously launched "swap activities", and the comment section became an exchange market.
A netizen said: "The mini version of LABUBU has 14 letters at one end. Players cannot like every letter. It will fall after the goods arrive. There is no need to rush for one or two days."
Labubu's price frenzy is easily reminiscent of the earliest bubble economic events in human history:
The "tulip fever" in the Netherlands in 1637.
Tulips soon became a symbol of aristocratic status after they were introduced to Europe from the Middle East in the 16th century.
Especially those varieties with wonderful stripes after being infected with the virus have fascinated the entire European upper class.
Between 1635 and 1636, the price of tulips increased by as much as 5,900%.
A tulip variety called "Eternal Augustus" is sold for up to 6,700 guilds.
This money was enough to buy a mansion by the canal of Amsterdam, and the average annual income of the Dutch at that time was only 150 guilds.
Tulip trading even gave birth to the earliest futures markets.
In 1636, people could buy and sell tulip bulbs that were harvested in 1637. There was no need to pay before delivery, they only had to pay the securities market difference.
However, in early February 1637, the tulip market suddenly collapsed.
In one week, the price of tulips fell by an average of 90%, and those common varieties were not even sold for an onion.
Whether it is Labubu or tulip, the formation of bubbles follows a similar pattern:
From the beginning was driven by scarcity and social prestige, speculators joined, and finally the masses were involved.
Tulips were originally a way for nobles to show off their wealth, while Labubu took advantage of the power of celebrities to sell goods.
The display of stars such as the Thai princess and Lisa made Labubu a "social hard currency". The subsequent intervention of speculators amplified the bubble.
In the tulip fanaticism, speculators also acted in a planned manner, and some people spent a lot of money on it. There was even a record of a high-end bulb exchanged a mansion.
In the final stage, civilians who lack capital were involved.
In the Netherlands, ordinary workers sell all their property, such as livestock and tools for making money, and invest them in tulip transactions.
The burst of the bubble often originates from a trigger event.
The tulip market suddenly collapsed on February 4, 1637. On that day, a broker shouted a low quotation, and the price plummeted.
Labubu's price crash stems from the large-scale restocking of Pop Mart. The official placement of millions of products at one time instantly broke the market's supply and demand balance.
From the story of Labubu and Tulips, we can summarize some ways to identify bubbles.
The valuation level is the first signal. When the asset price far exceeds its intrinsic value, a bubble is forming.
Labubu hidden model has been hyped up to nearly 5,000 yuan, far exceeding its actual value as a toy.
Fund flow is another important indicator. When a large amount of funds flows centrally to a specific field or asset class without corresponding fundamental support, a bubble may form.
Investor sentiment and behavior are also key signals. When the market is generally overly optimistic and blindly following the trend, many investors pursue high returns regardless of risks, which often indicates the existence of a bubble.
In the Labubu boom, the phenomenon of hiring people in line in Japan, South Korea and other places is a red flag. This behavior not only disrupts the market order, but also further pushes up market popularity.
The policy environment is also worthy of attention. Overy loose monetary or fiscal policy may lead to a flood of funds, which will also lead to asset bubbles.
Scalpers have suspended the acquisition of the Labubu series, saying that they "have to wait and see the market stabilizes."
On the second-hand trading platform, the number of Labubu's listed sales has increased significantly, but the transaction volume has not increased but decreased. Sellers have lowered prices and promoted promotions, and some even stated words such as "reselling at a loss" and "seeking to recover blood".
Pop Mart's stock price also fell.
No one knows what the next one will be hyped, but it is certain thatAs long as the greed of human nature exists, each generation will eventually have a generation of "tulips". #Toutiao deep#
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References
1.NetEase: "LABUBU evaporated 300 billion in two weeks! After the top trend, the trendy toy industry staged a "Lilac Awakening" drama? 》
2. Snowball: "Tulip Bubble in the History of Finance"
3.i Dark Horse: "Three Major Financial Bubble Events in History What Do You Tell Us?"
4. Hexun.com: "How to identify the bubble risk of investment in financial markets? What are the ways to identify this bubble risk? 》
5. Baidu Encyclopedia: "Tulip Mania"
6. Guangming.com: "The price collapses! Once the price has reached more than 10,000... The "scalper" regrets crying: No one takes over"
7. Tencent News: "The First Economic Bubble in Human History: A Tulip for a Villa"
(Xiaoke Lao A)
