The incident of drone entering Polish airspace continues to ferment. Although Trump said the drone incident may be due to "mistake", France, Britain, Germany and other NATO countries have sent fighter jets, artillery and air defense systems to Poland, claiming to jointly "defend" Polish airspace. At the same time, NATO and Poland also held joint military exercises to confront the Russian-Belarus military exercises. What are the considerations for NATO's continuous escalation of "standoff"? Will there be a risk of further spillover in the Ukrainian crisis?
NATO Secretary-General Rutt
NATO announces the deployment of "Eastern Sentinel"
Defend the East Wing Airspace
After the drone incident, NATO is preparing two political and military responses. On the 12th local time, NATO Secretary-General Rutt and NATO's Supreme Commander of the European Allied Forces Alex Glinkevich held a joint press conference at NATO headquarters. Rutt said that NATO has discovered that drones have violated the airspace of four countries, and Russia's air activity is becoming increasingly frequent, and whether these actions are intentional or unintentional, they are extremely dangerous. At present, NATO is deploying the "Oriental Sentinel" system to strengthen the defense situation in the East Flank, which will integrate the military resources of many allies such as Denmark, France, Britain, and Germany.
Polish Defense Minister: 5 countries have provided support
This time, the attitude of NATO European members seemed particularly tough, and many countries announced that they would provide help to Poland. On the evening of September 11 local time, French President Macron announced that France will dispatch three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the defense of Polish airspace and the eastern wing of Europe. Macron also said: "The security of the European continent is our top priority. We will not succumb to Russia's increasing intimidation." Polish Defense Minister Kamesh listed the support provided by NATO allies to Poland on the 11th. He said that the Netherlands will provide two complete "Patriot" air defense systems and artillery, and send 300 soldiers; the Czech Republic will send 3 helicopters and 100 soldiers; France and the United Kingdom will deploy "Rawn" and "Typhoon" fighter jets in Poland; Sweden will send fighter jets to Poland and provide air defense systems.
Polish Prime Minister Tusk Data Photo
Trump said "maybe a mistake"
refuted by the Polish Prime Minister
It is worth noting that it is shown by the tension shown by NATO allies. U.S. President Trump said in an answer to reporters' questions at the White House on the 12th that the flight of Russian drones into Poland "may be a mistake", but in any case, he was unhappy with all aspects of the development of the situation and hoped that the incident would calm down. Regarding Trump's statement, Polish Prime Minister Tusk posted on social media on the 12th, saying, "We also hope that the drone attack on Poland is a mistake, but we all know it is not."
How do you view NATO's reaction this time? Zhao Huirong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with "Yangtze River News" that NATO and NATO member states have a tough attitude towards Russia, in order to give member states some explanations, so that member states can maintain confidence in NATO's collective defense mechanism, and thus promote NATO's unity. But NATO did not take any direct counterattack against Russia, or some other actions such as military confrontation. This shows that NATO still has a certain degree of restraint in its attitude to avoid direct military confrontation with Russia.
Russia and Belarus launch the "Western-2025" joint military exercise
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 10th saying that the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that there are no Russian targets in Poland. The maximum flight distance of the so-called Ukrainian drone that the Russian army used to attack Ukraine on the same day was not more than 700 kilometers. The Polish side spread rumors aimed at exacerbating the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the joint strategic exercise of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces "Western-2025" was officially launched on the 12th. The exercise will focus on the exercise of command and control issues across services, regional and alliance military clusters when curbing the aggression of coalition countries, as well as a variety of joint action plans to eliminate threats and stabilize border situations. The practical exercise will be carried out in the training grounds in Russia and Belarus and in the Baltic and Barents Seas.
Poland: It has been preparing for months to deal with Russian-Belarus military exercises
In response to military exercises on Russia, Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Tomchik said on the 11th that "Western-2025" is an offensive exercise. Poland has been preparing for this exercise for several months, and Poland will deploy about 40,000 soldiers in the border area with Belarus in the near future. In addition, tens of thousands of soldiers from Poland and other NATO countries also held the "Steel Defender-25" exercise. The outside world pointed out that the two exercises of "Western-2025" and "Steel Defender-25" were carried out at the same time, which is "one of the largest military confrontations between NATO and Russia since the Cold War."
How will this tit-for-tat situation evolve? Is there a risk of further spillover in the Ukrainian crisis? Zhao Huirong analyzed that Both sides are holding military exercises, and they are relatively close in terms of geographical location, so during this period, there may be interference with each other's exercise operations, and even test each other. But at the same time, we also see that both sides are only strengthening defense and deterrence, rather than preparing for an attack. Russia is also very low-key and restrained in public opinion, emphasizing that the scale of this exercise is very small, and the purpose is not to stimulate the confrontation in Europe. But European countries obviously do not trust them. They are worried that the other party will release the "smoke bomb", so the nervousness between the two sides is still very obvious. I think this will definitely be unfavorable to the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, but it does not mean that the two sides will soon have direct military confrontation in the next step.
