Netanyahu made a big bet by hitting Qatar, a move that seems counterproductive

When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the assassination of an attempted Hamas leader in Qatar this week, he placed a major bet in an attempt to force the group to surrender through force.

As the signs of mission failure become increasingly obvious, the gamble seemed counterproductive.

Netanyahu had hoped to advance his vision of a complete defeat of the armed group by killing Hamas senior leaders in exile, which attacked Israel on October 7, 2023 and forced it to surrender after nearly two years of war in the Gaza Strip.

However, Hamas claimed that its leaders were spared, and Netanyahu's international reputation—which had been severely damaged by the destruction scenes of Gaza and humanitarian disasters—had been hit harder.

The air strikes on Tuesday infuriated Qatar, an influential U.S. ally, who has been a key mediator throughout the war and sparked strong condemnation from the Arab world. The move also exacerbated tensions with the White House, bringing hopes of a ceasefire into chaos and could endanger the 20 hostages believed to still live in Gaza.

However, while the attack marked a setback in Netanyahu, the Israeli leader showed no signs of retreating or stopping the war. In addition, his hardliner league still firmly supports him, Netanyahu's dominance is not currently facing direct threats.

Netanyahu hopes to create a "victory image" for his government

The attack killed five low Hamas members and a Qatari security guard. But Hamas said the pre-determined targets — senior exiled leaders who are meeting to discuss the proposal for a new U.S. ceasefire — all survived. However, the organization has not released any photos of its leaders, and Qatar has not commented on its status.

Harel Khorev, an expert on Arab affairs at Tel Aviv University, said that if the air strikes successfully eliminated senior leaders, Netanyahu could have provided an opportunity to declare Hamas' destruction.

"It all has a strong symbolic meaning, and it is undoubtedly part of what allows Netanyahu to claim 'we won, we wipe them out'," he said.

Israel's 23-month fierce offensive in Gaza has cleared all Hamas senior leaders in the region. But Netanyahu has set out to completely eliminate the organization as part of its goal of "all-out victory".

It now seems that this situation is becoming increasingly unlikely, making it harder for Netanyahu to push its hardliner coalition to accept the ceasefire.

The far-right members of the Israeli ruling coalition have pushed Netanyahu into a desperate situation and threatened to overthrow his government unless Israel continues to advance its expanded operations in Gaza City despite the serious doubts of many senior military leaders and widespread opposition from the Israeli public.

A successful operation in Qatar could have Netanyahu appeased the hardliners, although it would have wiped out the officials responsible for the possible ceasefire in negotiations.

Severe communication channels with Qatar

Jorev said Israel has the ability to strike the Hamas leader in Doha since the beginning of the war, but was reluctant to anger Qatar during the negotiations.

Qatar previously helped to facilitate two rounds of ceasefire negotiations, successfully releasing 148 hostages (each of which 8 are bodies) and replacing thousands of Palestinian prisoners. The Israeli military successfully rescued only 8 survivors and retrieved 51 hostages.

Although Israel has been complaining that Qatar has not put pressure on Hamas, it continues to retain this communication channel until the attack on Tuesday.

"Israel declares to the world through the attack that they have abandoned negotiations," Khoref said, "they decided to cut off communication channels with Qatar."

When asked whether the ceasefire negotiations would continue, Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed bin Abdullahman Al Thani said that after the air strikes, "no valid content exists in the current negotiations." But he did not specify, nor did he make it clear that Qatar would terminate the mediation efforts.

How Netanyahu hopes to win the release of the remaining hostages remains unclear.

Sheikh Mohammed accused Israel of abandoning the hostages on Thursday.

"The extremists who rule Israel today do not care about the safety of the hostages-or else how would they explain that they chose to launch an attack at this time?" Sheikh Mohammed told the UN Security Council.

Nevertheless, he stated that Qatar is ready to restart the mediation work, but did not disclose the specific steps in the future. Sheikh Mohamed met with U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio in Washington on Friday, who was scheduled to visit Israel this weekend, showing that the Trump administration is trying to balance relations among its major eastern allies.

Tightening relations with the United States

Netanyahu, who has been hard-core American support since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, seems to be on the verge of tension with his most important allies.

Trump said he was "very dissatisfied" with the air strike and assured Qatar that such attacks would not happen again.

However, Trump has not yet expressed whether he would take any punitive measures against Israel, nor has he stated that he would put pressure on Netanyahu to stop the war.

At the same time, Netanyahu remained unmoved and threatened to take further action if Qatar continues to provide asylum to the Hamas leadership.

The message he sent to Hamas on Thursday was clear: "We can find you wherever you are."

The impact on the Gaza war is very little

Israel is continuing to advance its expanded offensive aimed at capturing Gaza City. The military has urged about one million residents in the area to evacuate completely before the expected attack.

Gayle Talshire, political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said: "The Netanyahu government insists on continuing military operations in the Gaza Strip."

Israel ignores calls from the United Nations, the EU and a growing number of plans to acknowledge in the UN Security Council later this month that major Western countries in the Palestinian state demand a truce.

She added that the only person who could change the trajectory was Trump—as long as he told Israel "to stop at it."

Netanyahu's political future is not threatened

If Hamas leaders survive and negotiations break down, Netanyahu will further alienate the Israeli public who hopes to end the war and bring hostages back through an agreement.

But this objection has been around for months and has little effect on Netanyahu.

"Netanyahu's near-term political prospects do not depend on the Israeli people," said Yohanan Presner, director of the Institute of Democracy, Jerusalem think tank.

Instead, his political life depends on the attitude of the ruling coalition—and most members of the coalition have expressed full support for the assassination.

This triggered panic and more pain among the families of hostages who were still held in the Gaza Strip.

Enaf Zangok's son Matan is also among the detained personnel, saying this week that she was "shaking all over" after learning of Israel's attack on Doha.

"Why does the Prime Minister have to destroy every opportunity to reach an agreement?" She asked with tears in her eyes, "Why?"