Stock market investment is a way of investment and financial management, so friends who participate in the investment want to make money in the stock market without exception, but as a "zero-sum game", if you make a profit, you will inevitably lose money. Due to the existence of some main players and dealers, the proportion of losses is often relatively large, as the saying goes, "seven losses, two draws and one profit." Maybe some friends will ask, is it really difficult to make money in the stock market? It’s nothing more than buying low and selling high, and then repeating the operation to make continuous profits. This seems to make sense and correct. However, the actual situation is often unsatisfactory. Many times, what you buy is not the low point but sells at the low point; you don’t sell when you should sell, and you don’t buy when you should buy. Finally one day, you will admit that there are things you can’t do, and things often go against your expectations.
For every stock investor, the most urgent task is to learn to look at the stock market objectively and calmly, analyze the stock market seriously and meticulously, and grasp the stock market accurately and reasonably. When you use the money you earned from your hard work to trade stocks, you must be responsible for your investment behavior and must not blindly buy and sell stocks at will. Only by improving one's ability to look at the market first can one gain greater returns in the future stock market.
Why do the dealer always know how many chips we have in our hands?
The dealer knows how many chips a retail investor has, and the dealer knows better than anyone else. If a dealer can't even understand the most basic point of trading, his dealer will do it in vain. It just means that he cannot know and does not need to know how many chips a retail investor has. As long as he has big data, it is enough.
The first thing an expert needs to do is to understand how many circulating chips the top ten shareholders and institutions have mastered, how many circulating chips there are on the market, and then how many circulating chips they have obtained by building their own positions. The rest is the chips in the hands of retail investors. The whole process is that simple. This is a primary school math addition and subtraction algorithm problem. That should be easy to understand, right?
Why do market trials sometimes occur during the transaction process of the dealer? His test is not about how many chips there are in retail investors, but about how many trapped chips there are and how much selling pressure is. Through the test, the dealer can roughly grasp these basic situations.
For example: One stock's top ten shareholders have 55%, and other institutions hold 5% of the positions together, and only 40% of the circulating chips on the market are circulating. The market maker has built a position and held 40% of the remaining 40% of the remaining 40%, which is 16%, and the remaining 24% are all held by retail investors. The 24% held by this retail investor includes the early trapped trading and the later profitable trading. The main force's shock position is to clean up and eliminate the profitable trading. The "Immortal Guide" we often call it an action to impact the test market upward. This action is to test how much the selling pressure of the trapped trading above is? Then, by mastering first-hand data through the market reaction, you can adjust the trading plan in a targeted manner in the later stage.
Therefore, during the trial stage, the dealer will unexpectedly raise the stock price suddenly and significantly when the waves are calm, and then let it fall naturally to test the selling of intraday chips. It is reflected in the K-line chart. In the calm and quiet, a long upper shadow suddenly appears. This is called an upward test, and the purpose is to test the intraday selling pressure. If a large number of sellers pour out when the price is rising, it means that the market maker can press and clean up floating chips below this price; if the sellers are scarce when the price is rising, it means that the stock is locked relatively stable below this price. If the market maker's position building task has not been completed, then it must consider pulling up at a higher cost price to complete the position building task.
During the trial process, the dealer must understand whether the chips outside of his hands are concentrated in the hands of large investors or scattered in the hands of small retail investors. If it is concentrated in the hands of large investors, the dealer will continue to fight with it and try his best to destroy its stockholding plan to avoid any accidents in the future. Within the trial price range, the dealer can determine how many chips may be spit out and how many chips can be absorbed by themselves based on the severity of the selling pressure of the upper chips and the support of the lower buying.
Specifically, the K-line charts commonly used by dealers during trial trading are shown in the following types:
1. Low open positive line
Low open positive line refers to the stock price opening in a form of a sharp low opening, with a low opening range generally above 3%. After the opening, the stock price has been rising all the way, and finally closes a physical positive line at the close. By using this method to test the market, the dealer can not only collect cheap chips during the process of opening significantly lower, but will not attract a large number of short-term followers, nor will it lose chips during the test market, but also test the stability of the chips and the support strength of the market. As shown in Figure 1-1, the dealer tried the market with a low opening line against Wuhan Holdings (600168).
When the dealer uses the method of testing the upper pressure plate to test the market, if it attracts a lot of short-term follow-ups, there will be more short-term profit-making plates, which will increase the market makers' future pull-up costs. In order to avoid attracting the attention of other institutions or market makers during the trial process, the dealer will take the low-opening positive line to test the market.
Using this method of trial trading generally occurs among individual stocks that build positions in downward style. Because the market maker builds positions in the process of continuous decline in stock prices, when the market maker is about to end, he is very concerned about whether the stock price has the momentum to continue to fall. By using this low opening method to test the market, the market maker can test whether the downward momentum of the stock price still exists. When retail investors encounter individual stocks that use this method to test the market, they should pay close attention to the stock price trend after the low opening trial. If the stock price starts to strengthen after the trial market, it means that the market maker has begun to enter the stage of pulling up the stock price, and retail investors can enter the market to participate in the operation.
2. Golden needle bottom probe
In order to prevent those retail investors with good technical skills from seeing through the market's intention to test the market, the market maker will use the method of bottoming out the gold needle to test the market, so that the stock price will fall rapidly in an instant, and then quickly pull the stock price up. This will form a K-line pattern with a long lower shadow in the K-line chart. This trend pattern is called the Golden Needle Base Probe.
The dealer usually has two modes to test the market in this way:
One is that the stock price opened on the previous day's closing price, or it can open slightly higher or slightly lower, but the stock price trend after the opening is relatively stable. Then, one or more large sell orders will appear during the trading session, suppressing the stock price by several points at once. Soon, the stock price was pulled up again. After the closing, a positive or negative line with a long lower shadow line was left on the K-line chart, which was similar to a needle, so this test method is called the gold needle bottom-probe test.
Another mode is that the stock price opened significantly at the opening and showed a straight-line decline at a very fast speed. Then the stock price was quickly pulled up, or it fluctuated and rebounded. At the end of the afternoon, the stock price will close above the closing price of the previous day, so a positive line with a long lower shadow line will be closed in the K-line trend. In this way, the dealer wants to test the support situation of the lower level and the stability of the intraday holdings, but at the same time does not want those retail investors who see through their intention to test the market to pick up cheap chips at the low level of the stock price.
As shown in Figure 2-1, the dealer used this test method for Hunan Oil Pump (603319). During the trial, the stock price suddenly dropped rapidly one day, but then it pulled up again. From the market perspective, the stock has strong support for the lower level, and the attention of off-market funds is also very high.
If retail investors encounter individual stocks that test in this way, they must not blindly enter the market during the rapid decline of the stock price, because after such a trial, if the market maker tests that the support for the lower level is not very strong, or there are more panic chips in the trading session, the market maker will continue to test the market downward. If retail investors buy at this time, they may be dragged down by the dealer. Unless you have a very accurate grasp of the market situation, you can enter the market and buy at this time. If the selling price is not big during the bottoming process, the downward buying is very active, and the trading volume shrinks significantly during the downward price, and the stock price closes with a positive line the next day, this is the best time to buy.
3. Double needle bottom probe
This method is similar to the golden needle bottoming. As the name suggests, it is the phenomenon of the golden needle bottoming probe twice in a continuous period of time. These two times can be a few days apart or two consecutive days. If the position of the double-needle bottoming can be kept parallel, it can further prove the stability of the original investor holding chips and the active ability to take over the lower level. The double-needle base probe gives people a stronger, stable and down-to-earth feeling than the gold needle base probe.
In the stocks with double-needle bottom-probe test, sometimes there will be two lower probe threads with the same minimum price. This is the market maker's previous low-level takeover is still very strong. If the stock price falls back to this price again, it can attract a lot of buying orders, and there are not so many intraday selling, which means that the stock price has a strong support at this position; if the price falls back to this position, the buying order is not so active, and the intraday selling situation is very serious, which means that the stock price cannot get effective support at this position, and the dealer will continue to try the market downward to find the bottom. During the trial process of double-needle bottoming, if the lowest prices of the two needles and threads are the same, it proves that retail investors have strong stability in holding chips at this price, and the over-the-counter funds are also strong in taking over the entry.
Shen Chiwan A, shown in Figure 3-1, after a continuous and sharp decline, the momentum of the decline was exhausted, and the trading volume also reached the ground level, showing the bottom characteristics. In order to test whether it reaches the bottom, the main force used the method of bottoming out of the gold needle for two consecutive days, and the lowest price for two days was basically the same. After finding out the bottom, the market started to rise.
Jilin chemical fiber as shown in Figure 3-2 also uses the method of double-needle bottoming probe. After the bottom was discovered, the stock price began to stabilize and rebound. Unlike the above example, the stock bottomed out twice in nearly two weeks.
In actual combat, if you encounter a double-neck bottoming, you must first determine whether the stock is in the market maker's trial stage. If you are sure that the dealer is testing the market, don’t enter the market easily. Because if the dealer wants to pull up, it will only proceed when the lower-level takeover is strong and the selling is relatively small. Therefore, we should wait until the stock price starts to strengthen and enters the upward trend before entering the market.
In addition, robust dealers often use multi-needle bottoming method, and their purposes are the same, so I will not explain in detail here.
Finally, buying is a prerequisite for successful trading. A good buying point can allow you to stand in a good position. You can advance, attack, retreat, and defend and hold the stocks behind to provide strong psychological support and room for maneuver. Selling is a stop loss for buying profits or buying loss. This is more important than buying in specific situations. A skillful grasp of selling points can effectively overcome the inherent weaknesses in human nature. It can allow stock traders to boldly expand profits when the market trend is good, and to retreat and preserve their strength in unfavorable situations. Stock proverbs who can buy Xidi and sell it is the master. What it means is that the master can understand human weaknesses better than Xidi, and can control some difficult-to-era weaknesses in human nature. However, these two points are not the most important for stock traders. The most important skill in trading is to be good at waiting.
In terms of time, buying or selling is a point, and waiting is a line and a process. The time spent on buying and selling will not accumulate more than 1% within a year, and the rest of the time is in the waiting process. In this regard, waiting is the most important skill of stock traders. As a skill, waiting is not about nothing to do, it is about being indecisive, it is about being afraid of wolves and tigers in the front and waiting in a sense is a comprehensive quality. This skill reflects the buying skills and selling skills of stock traders to a certain extent, and more importantly, it reflects the psychological quality of traders. After all, the securities market is a game between people. The objective advantages and disadvantages of various groups have a great impact on the results of the game, but the factor that has a decisive impact on the results of the game is the psychological quality of various groups! While cultivating buying and selling skills, it is also a training to wait for opportunities and mentality. It is important to realize it! People who are good at waiting must be good at trading, and good at trading may not necessarily be good at waiting.
The ultimate goal of waiting is action, and actions in the securities market are reflected in buying and selling. In addition to learning operation skills, the most important way to improve buying and selling skills is to analyze past actual operations. Identify shortcomings or defects in the operation, especially common problems. Find it, solve it, and after such a continuous cycle, the buying and selling skills will reach a higher level. When your trading skills reach a certain level, you should move quickly when trading. When the time for trading is not up, you will be more confident and patient.
The military strategy says: Those who are good at attacking move above the nine heavens, and those who are good at guarding hide under the nine earths. Although you don’t have to become a so-called master, you must have a deep understanding of this principle! Learn to wait and be good at waiting!
