Washington, September 11 - As global energy security has become the focus of international public opinion, U.S. Secretary of Energy Wright admitted at an international natural gas exhibition and conference on September 10 that it would take time for the United States to get rid of its dependence on Russian uranium fuel. She called on the United States and European allies to jointly enhance their local uranium enrichment capacity in order to cope with policy pressure from US law to prohibit the procurement of Russian uranium after 2028. Wright's speech was broadcast live by the organizers, which quickly aroused the attention and heated discussions of the global energy and nuclear energy industry.
U.S.-Russia nuclear fuel trade: the complex entanglement between history and reality
The United States is one of the world's largest nuclear energy markets, with more than 90 nuclear power plants operating, and nuclear power generation accounts for about 19% of the country's total power generation. Although the United States has a huge uranium resources and nuclear fuel industry system in history, due to the impact of the shrinking industry after the Cold War, cost pressure and global trade, the United States has gradually slowed down its local uranium mining and enrichment capacity and relied on the international market to supplement nuclear fuel.
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20% to 25% of the uranium fuel required for U.S. nuclear power plants each year in recent years come from Russia and its allies. Russia not only has rich uranium resources, but also has the world's leading uranium enrichment and fuel module manufacturing capabilities. It has long been one of the most important overseas suppliers in the US nuclear power industry.
Wright reiterated at the Gastech conference that US law has clearly stipulated that US companies are not allowed to purchase uranium fuel from Russia after 2028. This legislation aims to reduce energy dependence on Russia and weaken Russia's energy export income, while responding to geopolitical tensions and the risks of energy weaponization.
However, Wright admitted that it is not easy to truly achieve "de-Russian uranium". She said: "We need to work with European allies to greatly improve the U.S. uranium enrichment capacity on a large scale in order to get rid of Russia's uranium supply, but this will take time." Wright pointed out that the U.S. nuclear fuel production capacity has almost "stagnated" in the past few decades. To restore the industrial chain and achieve localization, it requires not only huge investment, but also full support from policies, technology and talents.
Global nuclear fuel market: Russia's "irreplaceable" position
At present, the global uranium fuel supply is highly concentrated. Russia's National Atomic Energy Corporation and its subsidiaries control about 40% of the world's uranium enrichment capacity. In addition to the uranium ore itself, Russia also has leading advantages in many aspects such as uranium conversion, enrichment, and fuel component manufacturing.
Although the United States has abundant uranium mineral resources (such as Wyoming, Utah, etc.), its local uranium mining, conversion and enrichment capacity has shrunk significantly over the years. Data shows that the U.S. domestic uranium production in 2023 is only a tiny part of the peak of the Cold War. Although American uranium enrichment companies and European counterparts are stepping up production expansion, it is extremely difficult to "replace" Russia's share in a short period of time.
Faced with the countdown to the "Russia ban" in 2028, the United States has issued a number of policies to support the local uranium industry, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Ministry of Energy's special grants, and legislation simplified approval. The United States has also strengthened strategic cooperation with major nuclear power power countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia, jointly invested in new uranium enrichment facilities, and carried out fuel components research and development and certification.
Industry experts pointed out that although the United States and Europe attach great importance to "de-Russia" at the policy level, they face multiple obstacles such as capital, talent, technology, and environmental approval in reality. Uranium mining and enrichment are high investment, high regulation, and high risk areas, with cycles often up to 5-10 years or even longer.
The dilemma between nuclear energy safety and new energy transformation
The United States is the global leader in promoting the revival of low-carbon energy and nuclear energy. In recent years, the Biden administration has frequently emphasized the strategic position of nuclear energy in achieving carbon neutrality and ensuring energy security. Many nuclear power plants also plan to extend their lifespan and even build new units. Wright also emphasized at the Gastech conference: "Nuclear energy is an indispensable part of the US energy structure."
But the potential fuel supply bottleneck of "de-Russia" may affect the safe operation and expansion planning of the United States nuclear power plant. Once the risk of "stopping supply" becomes a reality, some nuclear power plants may be forced to retire early and reduce burdens, affecting the stability of power supply and carbon emission reduction goals.
In the face of pressure from the United States and Europe to decouple, Russia is accelerating its "east-facing strategy" to consolidate nuclear energy and fuel cooperation with emerging market countries such as China, India, Turkey, and Iran. In recent years, Rosatom has signed nuclear power and fuel supply agreements in Asia, Africa and Lacos, expanding its global market share. Russia is also actively promoting new generation nuclear energy technology and fuel innovation, striving to maintain its dominance in the global nuclear fuel industry.
The United States promotes the revitalization of the local nuclear fuel industry and the EU accelerates its pace of going to Russia, which is not only an emergency response to energy security, but also a reflection of the global trend of energy diversification and decentralization. However, in the short term, supply chain risks, cost pressures and technical shortcomings will be difficult to achieve overnight.
U.S. Secretary of Energy Wright admitted at an international natural gas exhibition and conference that "giving up Russian uranium fuel will take time", which revealed the real dilemma of the "de-Russia" process of the United States and Europe. In the next few years, how to reshape the global nuclear fuel supply chain and how to balance nuclear energy safety and low-carbon strategies will become important variables that affect the international energy landscape. Only by cooperating and innovating and preparing for the future can all countries seize the initiative in energy transformation and geopolitical changes and maintain the bottom line of security.
