The same low opening, but different results. Yesterday, it opened low and then dived shortly after pulling up. Today, it was different. It rose all the way and still did not dive until 11 o'clock. The problem is volume. When the volume rose yesterday, it continued to shrink, so it plunged quickly. When the volume rose today, it increased all the way, and there was no big selling pressure on the low opening. Although the volume increase was not ideal, it could still continue to rise. From the increase in volume of less than 4% in about half an hour in the morning to the increase in volume of about 6.57% in one and a half hours in the morning, the increase in volume of about 6.57% in the morning, the volume is magnified slowly, and the pace is good, but the result is different.
In the sector, the strong stocks represented by Yi Zhongtian continued to rise sharply, and the main AI lines such as components, semiconductors, CPOs, and PCB rebounded strongly, and popularity suddenly gathered. Although the market has not met the "explosive volume" level expected by the market, the strong return of technology stocks has become the biggest highlight. Concepts such as CPO, chips, and AI computing power dominate the main net inflow list. Leading stocks such as Yi Zhongtian, Ji Lianhai, Inspur and Haiguang Information may hit the daily limit, which directly stimulated capital sentiment. In contrast, the large consumer sector is slightly weak, with funds flowing out of major tracks such as cultural media and virtual digital people, and the market differentiation pattern is obvious.
It is worth noting that the outflow of main funds in the early trading continued to decrease. By around 11 o'clock, the net outflow of main funds was only more than 3 billion yuan, and at this time the volume was nearly 100 billion. It is obvious that large funds were running and entering the market again, and began to gather in the technology track again. Securities companies began to rise again. The rise of index and the money-making effect of individual stocks quickly heated up, but the rise of index depends more on the rise of large market value varieties. A large number of individual stocks did not feel the pleasure of a big rise, and funds were still concentrated in the group. At this time, we must keep a close eye on the changes in volume and energy, and beware of insufficient funds relay and falling at a high level.
The sharp rise in the securities sector has driven popularity, and coupled with the Ministry of Finance’s signal of “positive fiscal policy”, the market’s game of policy expectations has heated up. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has heated up. Overall, the rebound in the early trading relies more on the concentrated outbreak of structural opportunities rather than the general rise in the market. The favor of funds for the direction of high prosperity technology has not changed.
Today's low opening and high opening, the rapid pull-up was coordinated by volume, but whether the volume can continue to be the key, but if the volume can continue to return to above 2.5 trillion, we should look at it more in terms of oscillation, and dare to buy low instead of chasing highs in operation. Next, we will give a morning closing review, hoping to provide some reference for your investment:
First: Why did the morning session open low and close high? Good coordination between quantity and price is the key to whether it can continue
Logical disassembly: policy expectations + event catalysis = funds grouped together technology
The low opening in the early trading was mainly dragged down by overseas market volatility and financial sectors (banks, insurance), but the subsequent rebound momentum comes from two aspects:
Policy warm wind blows frequently: Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an stated that "strengthening the domestic circulation" will send signals of stabilizing growth, and the market's expectations for subsequent fiscal efforts (such as infrastructure and technology subsidies) will heat up;
The technology industry chain is constantly favorable: Oracle's RPO surge of US$455 billion confirms the explosion of global AI infrastructure demand. TSMC's sales in August increased by 34% year-on-year, strengthening the prosperity of the chip industry. The two major events directly stimulated funds in CPO, computing power, chip and other sectors to compete for funding.
Hidden worries about volume: Although the overall volume rises in the early trading, whether it can continue is the key, but there is still a gap compared with the previous high, and it is still doubtful whether the main funds can go long. However, it is expected that northbound funds will flow in today, after all, there is basically no suspense about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The market focus is still focusing on the main line of technology.
Summary: The short-term market maintains structural market conditions, and the relatively insufficient volume reflects the cautious attitude of funds, but the areas where policies and industrial trends resonate are still the main battlefield.
Second: "Yi Zhongtian" leads the rise, and consumption is silent! How to grasp the rotation rhythm?
The "ice and fire" of technology and consumption
The hard technology sector represented by "Yi Zhongtian" (technology weights such as Xinyisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communications, etc.) continues to strengthen, while the consumer sectors such as liquor and home appliances are stagnant, and there are three reasons for the stagnation of the consumer sector:
Difference in industry cycle: AI computing power, semiconductor production expansion, etc. are in an upward cycle, while consumption recovery is subject to residents' income expectations;
Policy inclination: The Ministry of Finance stated that it would strengthen domestic demand but emphasized the "domestic circulation", and the independence and control of science and technology are still the focus of policy;
Fund preference switching: Institutions shift from defensive consumption to highly elastic technology growth stocks, such as PCB, robots and other sectors, are boosted by Tesla's Optimus mass production expectations.
Operation suggestions: Focus on trends and avoid chasing highs
The main line is clear: AI computing power (Inspur, Haiguang Information), semiconductor equipment (Haiguang Information, Jialun Electronics), PCB (Jingwang Electronics), etc., and a pullback is an opportunity;
Ambushes from unpopular tracks: Satellite Internet (Oriental Communications), Robots (Xinshida) and other policy-catalyzed subdivided fields can be laid out at low prices;
Beware of pseudo-hot spots: Although concepts such as AIGC, virtual digital people are related to AI, their performance realization ability is questionable and they need to be cautious. Summary: Under the rotation market, stick to the high-prosperity track and avoid frequent switching.
Third: The key to the afternoon trend is to look at these two points!
The afternoon prediction: the fluctuation continues, and technology stocks decide the direction
Can volume continue: If the transaction volume continues to increase in the afternoon, the index may further rise; if the volume shrinks, it may fall;
Stability of leading stocks: If the weights of Inspur and Industrial FULL remain strong, the main line of technology will maintain popularity;
Financial sector trends: If securities stocks make a second move, the Shanghai Composite Index may challenge the pressure level of 3850 points.
Operation strategy: both offense and defense, focusing on certainty
The main line of technology: computing power (Inspur), optical module (Zhongji Xuchuang), chip (Cambrian);
Policy Catalysis: Satellite Communications (Oriental Communications), Robots (Northern Jiangsu);
Defensive configuration: low-valuation finance (brokership), countercyclical infrastructure (waiting for fiscal power signals). Summary: There is no systemic risk in the index, but the differentiation of individual stocks has intensified, so we need to keep a close eye on the direction of funds.
Written at the end: stick to the fluctuations and grow in the trend
The market fluctuations have never stopped, but every callback is a touchstone to test beliefs. The strength of technology stocks is not accidental, but the resonance of the global industrial revolution and China's policy dividends. Investors need to understand: it is easy to chase hot spots, but it is difficult to stick to logic. Instead of being led by short-term rise and fall, it is better to conduct in-depth research on industry trends and find companies that truly have technical barriers and performance support.
Remember, investment is not a 100-meter sprint, but a marathon. Stay patient and focus on long slopes and thick snow tracks such as AI, semiconductors, and robots
