When it comes to China's nuclear warheads, it has been a big deal in recent years, especially the United States has always been reporting that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. At the end of last year, the US Department of Defense released the 2024 China military power report, which directly pointed out that China had more than 600 nuclear warheads that could be deployed in actual combat by mid-2024, about 100 more than the previous year. As soon as this number came out, many people began to talk about it, because the report also predicted that by 2030, the number of nuclear warheads in China would exceed 1,000, and even 1,500 by 2035. It sounds quite scary, but we have to see if this is true or if the United States is taking the opportunity to hype it up.
Let me first talk about the background of this report. The US Department of Defense publishes such a document to evaluate China's military development every year, which basically summarizes China's trends in military expenditure, weapons deployment and strategic goals. The 2024 report particularly emphasizes the diversification of China's nuclear power, including land-based, sea-based and air-based projection systems. For example, the Dongfeng series of intercontinental missiles, the Julang series of submarine-launched missiles, and nuclear weapons carried by bombers. These systems are all being upgraded to improve survivability and attack range. The report mentioned that China is building new missile silos and nuclear submarine bases, which led the United States to assess that China's nuclear arsenal's growth rate exceeded previous expectations. Previously, the report in 2023 said that China had more than 500 pieces, but now it jumped directly to more than 600 pieces, and the growth rate is indeed not low.
But then again, the United States itself has a large number of nuclear warheads. According to data from the Stockholm Institute of International Peace, the United States currently deploys nearly 1,800 nuclear warheads and has nearly 2,000 in stock. Russia is similar, deploying more than 1,700 pieces and stocking more than 2,600 pieces. 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are basically in the hands of the United States and Russia. What about China? The institute estimates that China's total nuclear warheads are about 500, and only a few of them are in deployment. Compared with the United States and Russia, China's number is not on the same level. In the report, the United States also said that China's nuclear expansion is to "prepare for war" and regard China as a potential opponent, but in fact, China has always emphasized that nuclear forces are only maintained at the lowest level of national security and will not use nuclear weapons first. This is different from the United States. The United States' policy is to continue to upgrade the "Trial-in-One" nuclear power, and to engage in "extended deterrence" to share the nuclear protection umbrella with its allies.
Why is the United States so concerned about China's nuclear warheads? To put it bluntly, it is because the modernization of China's nuclear power has made the United States feel that its advantages are narrowing. The report clearly states that once China's new intercontinental missile is perfect, it can easily hit the US mainland. This is not empty talk, the conclusion drawn by the United States through satellite intelligence and intelligence analysis. Think about it, China has a large land area and a large population, so the defense pressure it faces is naturally much more complicated than that of the United States. If calculated in proportion, it would be not surprising that China's number of nuclear warheads is in line with North Korea, the United States and Russia. But China did not do that and maintained restraint. On the day the report was released, it happened to be December 18, 2024. US Secretary of State Blinken expressed his statement at a press conference that the United States does not want to have direct conflicts with any nuclear powers, including China and Russia. This sounds like retreating, but it is actually a realistic consideration. After all, no one can afford to play nuclear wars.
Blinken's statement is not casual. Just before and after the report came out, U.S. senior officials have been emphasizing avoiding nuclear risks. Blinken reiterated the United States' commitment to dialogue and seeking strategic stability. This is linked to the overall US policy, and the focus of the US nuclear strategy is shifting to China, but at the same time, it does not want to really start a fight. In the report, the United States also acknowledged that China's nuclear arsenal growth is a fact, but also pointed out that China pursues a nuclear strategy of self-defense. In contrast, the United States is accused of being the world's largest nuclear threat maker because it constantly adjusts its nuclear deterrence policy and relies on nuclear weapons to maintain hegemony. Blinken's words actually exposed the United States' mentality: while hyping up the "China nuclear threat" to expand its nuclear arsenal, they also said that they did not want to fight. Isn't this a contradiction? After all, it is the United States that is making excuses for itself to increase military spending.
Look at other international assessments. The Weapon Control Association issued a document in January 2025 saying that China's nuclear arsenal may have more than 600 combat warheads by mid-2024 and will continue to diversify its construction, but it is expected to grow after 2030. Politician Magazine directly reported that China will own 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, based on the Ministry of Defense report. The Atomic Scientist Bulletin updated China's nuclear weapons situation in March 2025, citing data from the Ministry of Defense, saying that China's nuclear inventory has exceeded 600. Defense News said in October 2024 that China led the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, with a total of 500 pieces, and more than 1,000 pieces by 2030. Senior defense officials confirmed in a briefing on December 18, 2024 that China will have 1,000 combat nuclear warheads by 2030 and will continue to grow by 2035.
There is also a 2025 global threat assessment, saying that China will have more than 1,000 combat nuclear warheads by 2030, and many are on higher alert. NTI discussed China's nuclear disarmament stance, including proposals and progress within the international framework, in August 2025. The True Clear Defense Network analyzed China's nuclear arsenal in March 2025, saying that the Ministry of Defense reports show that China produces about 100 warheads per year. The Atlantic Council reported in September 2024 that China quickly improves its nuclear capabilities, expands its nuclear arsenal, and supports its rise as a nuclear reciprocal force. The Federal Alliance of Scientists summarized the report in December 2024, saying that China had more than 600 nuclear warheads by early 2024, an increase of 100 from the previous year.
From these sources, China's nuclear warhead growth is a consensus, but the numbers vary slightly. Blinken's statement is placed in this context, and it seems that the United States is weighing the pros and cons. On the one hand, the United States is worried that China's nuclear power will catch up with it, and on the other hand, it knows that the risk of direct confrontation is too great. Blinken said he didn't want to fight a nuclear power, but in fact he admitted the reality: nuclear balance is changing, and the United States cannot dominate unilaterally as before.
China's nuclear policy has not changed, and it has always been self-defense and is not used first. But the U.S. report suggests that China may consider preemptive in some cases, such as when conventional attacks threaten nuclear forces' survival. This is controversial, and the Chinese Ministry of Defense repeatedly denied that it would not participate in the nuclear arms race. As long as you don’t use nuclear weapons on Chinese people, you will not face the threat of China’s nuclear weapons. Compared with the United States, China's nuclear power is still a small matter.
